US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN2008

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 002008 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CACEN 
 
E.O. 12958; N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, AJ, AM 
SUBJECT: CONGRESSMAN HASTINGS'S VISIT TO ARMENIA 
 
REF: YEREVAN 1994 
 
Sensitive but unclassified, please protect accordingly. 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. (SBU) Congressman Alcee Hastings (President of the OSCE 
Parliamentary Assembly) visited Armenia November 7-9 as the 
country was preparing for a constitutional referendum on 
November 27 and already looking ahead to parliamentary 
elections in 2007 and presidential elections in 2008. 
During meetings with National Assembly Speaker Arthur 
Baghdasarian, Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian, Head of the 
Yerevan OSCE Office Vladimir Pryakhin, political 
representatives, and civil society leaders, Hastings 
emphasized the importance of free and fair elections and 
made the point that the constitutional amendments 
represented a positive step forward for Armenia.  In his 
meetings and with the press, Hastings called on Armenia to 
invite OSCE observers to monitor the November 27 referendum 
(reftel).  Hastings also discussed the elections in 
Azerbaijan, the closure of the Turkish border, Armenian- 
Iranian relations, and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
HASTINGS AND GOAM LEADERS PRAISE THE AMENDMENTS... 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
2. (SBU) Parliament Speaker Baghdasarian agreed with 
Hastings that, while the proposed amendments were not the 
best possible, it had taken more than one year of debate to 
agree to them and they had the approval of the international 
community.  FM Oskanian also noted that although the reforms 
are not ideal, they are a major step forward in all aspects. 
Oskanian remarked that he could not predict whether the 
referendum would pass, however, as the number of votes 
necessary for approval was relatively high, and the 
opposition was united against the changes. 
 
...WHILE CIVIL SOCIETY LEADERS CRITICIZE THE REFORMS 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
3. (SBU) Armenian civil society leaders, particularly those 
who supported the opposition, complained that the Kocharian 
Administration was an illegitimate authority bent on 
maintaining national control and international favor through 
superficial reforms.  Some civil leaders argued the proposed 
constitutional amendments improved the current constitution, 
others criticized the text as flawed, but all -- with the 
exception of the Armenian Human Rights Ombudsman -- said 
they believed a new constitution would not change the 
Administration's authoritarian ways. 
 
4. (SBU) Hastings, who emphasized USG support for measured 
democratic reforms, said the Council of Europe's aggressive 
"overnight democratization" push did not consider Armenian 
political reality.  He argued that opposing generally 
acceptable constitutional amendments in order to spite the 
authors, the Kocharian Administration, was 
counterproductive.  The lone GOAM official at the table, 
Armenian Ombudsman Larisa Alaverdyan, avoided rhetoric 
critical of the government or the constitutional amendments 
and, without success, tried to focus the conversation on off- 
topic local eminent domain issues. 
 
OSCE HEAD: PUBLIC INDIFFERENCE WILL DEFEAT REFERENDUM 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
5. (SBU) Head of the OSCE Office in Yerevan, Vladimir 
Pryakhin, stated that although his office was doing its best 
to support the proposed constitutional reforms, the 
necessary number of voters would not go to the polls on 
November 27.  According to Pryakhin, Armenians were 
indifferent to the amendments, largely due to poverty in the 
country.  Pryakhin noted that while the total Armenian 
Government budget was less than USD 1 billion, Armenians 
received more than USD 700 million in remittances, and thus 
relied more on their relatives than on the government for 
their well-being.  According to Pryakhin, this had created 
political apathy within Armenian society. 
 
6. (SBU) Pryakhin said that, while he did not expect the 
referendum to be centrally rigged, he did anticipate that 
voting irregularities would occur in some regions due to the 
voting culture still present in the country.  Pryakhin again 
cited the issue of poverty as being a major cause of this 
phenomenon, pointing out that the average salary in Armenia 
was just over USD 80 per month, causing citizens to be more 
willing to sell their votes. 
 
BAGHDASARIAN WANTS ARMENIA JUDGED ON ITS OWN MERITS 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
7. (SBU) Parliament Speaker Baghdasarian told Hastings that 
the South Caucasus should not be seen as one unit, since 
Armenia could not be lumped together with neighbors 
Azerbaijan and Georgia.  Baghdasarian claimed that while 
Armenia and Georgia were making democratic advances towards 
Europe, Azerbaijan was headed towards Central Asia; when 
Armenia was placed in the same category as Azerbaijan, this 
decreased Armenia's incentives to make progress towards 
democracy.  Baghdasarian pointed to the EU's "European 
Neighborhood Policy" as an example of this.  (Note:  The 
European Union has slowed down the launch of its New 
Neighborhood Policy with all three South Caucasus countries 
as a result of Cyprus's objection to Azerbaijani flights to 
Northern Cyprus.  The EU has stated that it would like to 
launch the policy with all three South Caucasus countries at 
the same time.  It has also stated, however, that if 
Cyprus's issue with Azerbaijan was not solved by the end of 
the year, the organization would go ahead and begin 
relations with Armenia and Georgia.  End Note.) 
 
OSKANIAN SUPPORTS ENGAGEMENT, NOT CONFRONTATION, WITH IRAN 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
8. (SBU) FM Oskanian said he supported engagement rather 
than confrontation with Iran.  According to Oskanian, the 
Iranian President's recent statement regarding Israel was 
unfortunate, but Armenia's relationship with Iran was very 
good and had historically been very good.  Oskanian remarked 
that, due to Armenia's lack of East-West access, Iran had 
gained more significance.  Oskanian noted that Iran's 
uranium enrichment program being referred to the Security 
Council would put Armenia in an extremely difficult 
situation.  According to the FM, while 80 percent of 
Armenia's trade went through Georgia, Iran was also an 
important trade partner, and applying sanctions would have a 
negative psychological impact on the population, as this 
would leave Armenia with only one trade outlet. 
 
GOAM OFFICIALS EXPRESS OPTIMISM ABOUT NAGORNO-KARABAKH 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
9. (SBU) FM Oskanian expressed optimism that progress on the 
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict might be achieved in 2006. 
Oskanian stated that four critical issues exist regarding 
Nagorno-Karabakh, and Armenia and Azerbaijan had come to an 
agreement on two of these issues.  On the remaining two, 
some understanding had been achieved, but the positions of 
Armenia and Azerbaijan still differed.  Oskanian stated that 
if the two sides could move closer together on these issues 
during the first quarter of 2006, he believed it would be 
possible to achieve progress by mid-2006, which was a goal 
of the Minsk Group.  When asked how the Azerbaijani election 
might impact the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh 
conflict, Oskanian remarked that if President Aliyev were 
weakened, this would in turn weaken the Azerbaijani 
President's ability to compromise over Nagorno-Karabakh. 
 
10. (SBU) During a lunch with political leaders, Ambassador 
Evans argued that the first half of 2006 was a window when 
progress could be made in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh 
conflict.  Vahan Hovhannisyan, Deputy Chairman of the 
National Assembly, stated that he was not as optimistic, but 
that he also saw reason for hope that progress could be made 
in February of 2006.  He noted that Armenia realized the 
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was not a zero-sum game, and that 
when he was asked what Armenia would be willing to give up 
for peace, "he knew the answer," even though as a 
representative of the Dashnak Party he did not agree with 
it.  When his Azerbaijani colleagues were asked the same 
question, Hovhannisyan claimed they did not have an answer. 
Hovhannisyan agreed with Ambassador Evans that the sooner 
the conflict was solved, the better for Armenia, especially 
considering Azerbaijan's oil resources and economic growth. 
He remarked that had the conflict been solved before the 
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline was constructed, the pipeline 
would have been built through Armenia. 
 
OSKANIAN CRITICIZES THE CLOSURE OF THE TURKISH BORDER 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
11. (SBU) FM Oskanian criticized Turkey for not opening its 
border with Armenia, stating that in Europe there are hardly 
two neighboring countries that had not had historical 
disagreements or territorial claims, but that these 
countries still had open borders and diplomatic relations. 
Oskanian noted that he was not asking Turkey to forget the 
past, but rather to open the border, establish diplomatic 
relations, and then the two sides could discuss their 
disagreements.  Oskanian remarked that he hoped the European 
Union would pressure Turkey to open the border.  He also 
said that he believed Turkish intellectuals were now freer 
to discuss the "Armenian genocide," and that he believed 
Turkish society would continue to become more open. 
 
EVANS