US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK7091

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 007091 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/MLS, EAP 
OSD FOR POWERS 
PACOM FOR FPA HUSO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, MARR, TH, Southern Thailand 
SUBJECT: PRIVY COUNSELOR SURAYUD ON SITUATION IN SOUTHERN 
THAILAND 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce.  Reason 1.4 (a and d) 
 
 1.  (C)  Summary.  On November 10, Privy Counselor General 
Surayud Chulanont indicated to visiting DAS Eric John and the 
Ambassador that the Queen now has a better understanding of 
the situation in southern Thailand.  He was critical, 
however, of the police -- suggesting that they still do not 
have a grasp of the culture, language or grievances of 
Muslims in the South.  General Surayud also accused PM 
Thaksin of pandering to Buddhist voters by taking a hard line 
towards the violence and suggested that Thaksin's "D-Day" 
against agitators would start on November 15.  He suggested 
that Thailand should do more to work with Malaysia to address 
their common problem.  End Summary. 
 
 
THE QUEEN IS STARTING TO UNDERSTAND THE PROBLEM 
 
2.  (C)  On November 10, Privy Counselor Surayud (strictly 
protect) briefed the Ambassador and DAS John on the situation 
in the South.  Surayad had returned the day before from six 
weeks with Queen Sirikit in Narathiwat.  He suggested that, 
although some progress was being made in reaching out to 
Muslim clerics and elders in the troubled region, Muslim 
youths continued to be disaffected and posed ripe targets for 
agitators.  Surayud admitted that the Queen had shown a lack 
of understanding about the South in the past.  Now, however, 
after spending more time interacting with residents in the 
region, he believes she now understands that the violence is 
being pushed by only a fringe of Muslim society.  Surayud 
said that the Queen was in the south to promote agricultural 
and local handicraft projects and that, during the course of 
these promotions, she had many opportunities to meet with 
local residents, especially housewives, to hear their 
concerns.  In conversations with southern leaders and 
ordinary citizens, the Queen and Surayud urged prominent 
clerics and political figures to lead by example, to speak 
out against violence,  and to organize local self-defense 
groups in cooperation with the security forces. 
 
THE SECURITY FORCES DON'T UNDERSTAND THE SITUATION 
 
3.  (C)  Surayud repeatedly expressed frustration over the 
lack of understanding the security forces, especially the 
police, have over the situation in the south.  "They don't 
speak the local dialect, they don't understand Islam and they 
don't have proper supervision," he said.  Surayud 
acknowledged that the situation in the South was also being 
affected by the international situation.  "Just as in France, 
the population watches TV and sees violence directed at 
Muslims and are upset; and just as in France, our police do 
not understand the root causes for the protests," he noted. 
 
AND NEITHER DOES THE PM 
 
4.  (C)  He was also very critical of Thaksin, suggesting 
that the Prime Minister was pandering to Buddhist voters who 
supported a hard-line policy towards the South.  Surayud said 
that police in Thailand are not generally respected and that 
for years the South had been a dumping ground for bad Thai 
cops who used their postings to feather their nests (i.e., 
through involvement in smuggling and other illegal 
activities).  General Surayud suggested that, because he was 
trained as a policeman, Thaksin was overly influenced by the 
police in forming his policy for the region.  He also 
believes that the situation is taking a toll on the PM, 
describing Thaksin as looking "exhausted" the last time he 
saw him in the South.  Surayud described how agitators are 
effectively linking the PM personally with their grievances 
by putting Thaksin's face on scarecrows throughout the area. 
 
RUMORS OF HIT LISTS 
 
5.  (C)  Surayud said that he has heard rumors of lists of 
agitators being compiled by the security forces, particularly 
the police.  He said that he has cautioned Royal Thai Army 
officials against committing extra-judicial killings (EJKs) 
by arguing that "hit-squads" and "death lists" would only 
play into the hands of the agitators and stir up even more 
unrest in the region.  He did not indicate that he expected a 
wave of EJKs as Thailand experienced two years ago during the 
crackdown on drugs. 
 
D-DAY IS COMING 
 
6.  (C)  General Surayud was particularly critical of PM 
Thaksin's announcement that the RTG would undertake a move 
called "D-Day" to address the violence in the South. 
Surayud, like most of our contacts, was uncertain exactly 
what the security forces intended to do on "D-Day," but 
characterized the move as needlessly antagonistic to Muslims 
and one that would play into the hands of extremists. 
 
RELATIONS WITH MALAYSIA 
7.  (C)  The Privy Counselor maintained that Thaksin and 
other senior leaders were making the issue of the 131 Thai 
Muslims seeking UNHCR protection in Malaysia more difficult 
than it needed to be.  "If they want to go, let them go," he 
offered.  Of more concern, according to Surayud, was 
Thaksin's inability to work closely with Malaysian leaders to 
address the situation in the South.  Surayud agreed with the 
Ambassador's assessment that Thaksin's southern crisis is 
also Malaysian PM Badawi's northern crisis.  Until the two of 
them can work in harmony, he suggested, the problem will only 
get worse. 
 
 
IMPROVING SCHOOLS 
 
8.  (C)  General Surayud said that Thai officials were 
increasingly concerned about the influence that Pesantren in 
Indonesia had on young Thai Muslims.  He confessed that the 
security forces had no clear indication of how many Thai 
young people had been educated in Indonesia or at what 
schools.  He said that his time in Narathiwat only confirmed 
his belief that the RTG must work to improve the schools in 
the region to address the root causes of the violence. 
 
COMMENT 
 
9.  (C)  Surayud is a highly-regarded elder statesman in 
Thailand, influential and well regarded by the Royal Family, 
the Army, and the public.  Although a Thaksin critic, his 
insights into the Prime Minister's Office in the past have 
been spot on. 
 
10.  (U)  DAS John has cleared this message. 
BOYCE