US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK7090

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 007090 
 
SIPDIS 
 
INFO ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS 
HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/10/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREF, ETRD, TH, BURMA, CAMBODIA, Southern Thailand 
SUBJECT: PRIME MINISTER'S SENIOR ADVISOR PANSAK MEETING 
WITH DAS ERIC JOHN AND AMBASSADOR BOYCE 
 
REF: BANGKOK 6767 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR RALPH BOYCE.  REASON:  1.4(D) 
 
1.  (C)  SUMMARY.  DAS Eric John and Ambassador Boyce met 
with Pansak Winyarat, senior advisor to Prime Minister 
Thaksin Shinawatra, on November 9 for open-ended discussions. 
 Pansak's iconoclastic and uncensored views often give 
insights into the thinking of the Prime Minister.  Discussion 
focused on Burma, the situation in the South and Islamic 
extremism in Thailand, while touching on the shrimp tariffs. 
DAS John also raised the current issue involving the three 
Cambodian asylum seekers, which Pansak was not aware of but 
said he would look into.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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MUCH ADO ABOUT BURMA 
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2.  (C)  The Prime Minister's senior advisor, Pansak 
Winyarat, reviewed for visiting EAP DAS Eric John and 
Ambassador Boyce his thoughts on regional developments. 
Pansak addressed Burma first.  He admitted the current regime 
in Burma causes a lot of problems for Thailand-specifically 
with illegal immigration and drugs.  Pansak affirmed that 
Thailand's ultimate goals with Burma are the same as ours, 
because a politically stable and reformed Burma would 
alleviate these problems.  Pansak criticized the current 
leadership in Burma for having "a 1930's mindset, like the 
military with a Quaker instinct"; that the junta "doesn't 
discuss the future, they discuss the past"; and that 
"astrology is very important to them."   Pansak said that the 
road to Burma's reform lies at the grassroots level; the 
rural economy is also key.  Pansak was critical of the U.S. 
sanctions-oriented approach toward Burma as being too 
inflexible. 
 
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 THE SOUTH 
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3.  (C)  Pansak was not encouraging about the situation in 
the South of Thailand.  He said the South is a complicated, 
unique, and evolving situation that the government is at a 
loss on how to deal with.  The random violence is a totally 
new kind of warfare.  He believes the old hands (in the 
security forces) are not in command of the situation and that 
textbook solutions cannot be used effectively to fight the 
insurgents.  Pansak also said that the insurgents are well 
aware that their actions will not result in a change of 
leadership in the country, although they are glad to be the 
cause of strains in the relationship between Bangkok and 
Kuala Lumpur.  Pansak affirmed that the violence in the South 
is very much a domestic issue, but acknowledged that it has 
been influenced by international trends.  He did not believe 
the insurgents would attack Bangkok, speculating they are 
reluctant to go into non-Islamic areas.  When asked what 
motivated the insurgents, Pansak replied "Because of a sense 
of dignity and power."  He lamented the absence of 
interlocutors with whom to initiate a dialogue.  "Who do you 
talk to if no one wants to talk?" 
 
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OTHER TOPICS:  CAMBODIANS AND SHRIMP 
------------------------------------ 
 
4.    (C)  DAS John raised the issue of the Cambodians 
seeking resettlement through UNHCR here.  Pansak was not 
aware of this issue (reftel).  He said he'd look into the 
matter, but his initial (unhelpful) thoughts were that they 
should be returned to Cambodia and seek resolution in a court 
of law.  Pansak believes that the U.S. can best support the 
Cambodians by providing funding for top-notch lawyers to 
represent them -- something which would annoy Hun Sen.  If 
the United States can get a third party to verify that a fair 
trial for the three is impossible, then-and only then-should 
the U.S. approach Thailand about granting the Cambodians 
asylum.  (Note:  Pansak somewhat misses the point, but it is 
useful for him to understand the importance the U.S. accords 
this issue.  End Note.) 
 
5.  (C)  Pansak raised the recent ICT decision regarding 
shrimp tariffs, which clearly remains a source of 
disappointment for the Thai government.  Pansak reminded DAS 
John and the Ambassador that Thailand has been a consistent 
supporter of the United States, especially in the UN, and 
that as an ally the U.S. should be "fair and equitable."  The 
Ambassador carefully explained that the ITC review had been 
very thorough and Thailand is still doing quite well with its 
shrimp exports to the U.S. Pansak indicated that Thailand may 
call on the U.S. in the near future  for a further review of 
the shrimp tariff issue. 
 
6.  (U)  DAS John cleared this cable. 
BOYCE