US embassy cable - 05ALMATY4074

UNCLAS  ALMATY 004074 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KZ, 2005 Election 
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDUP 
 
REF: Almaty 4010 
 
1. (U) This is the eighth in a series of weekly election 
roundups in advance of Kazakhstan's December 4, 2005 
presidential elections.  Items were drawn primarily from 
the local press and media. 
 
CEC Statements on Election Campaigns 
------------------------------------ 
 
2. (U) On November 3, CEC Chairman Zhumabekov sent a 
letter to the head of Nazarbayev's campaign headquarters 
Zhumagulov regarding violations of the law by some 
activists of Nazarbayev's campaign. The CEC received 
information on a number of public meetings arranged by 
representatives of Nazarbayev's campaign headquarters that 
violated the law.  The CEC requested that immediate 
measures be taken not to allow any illegal public 
meetings. 
 
3. (SBU) On November 8, the CEC issued a warning against 
any campaigning by foreigners, foreign organizations, 
Kazakhstani government agencies or officials in favor of 
any candidate. The CEC ordered the MFA to remove from its 
website Malaysian former Prime Minister Mahatir Mohammad's 
greetings and wishes of success to Nazarbayev in the 
upcoming elections.  Some observers saw the statement as 
an indirect warning to other government agencies and 
officials that they must abide by the law; others saw it 
as a clumsy attempt to show the CEC's impartiality. 
 
4. (U) In a November 11 press conference, CEC Chairman 
Zhumabekov announced that the CEC plans to introduce 
amendments to the Election Law to revoke the provision 
banning rallies and demonstrations after the end of 
election campaigns.  Zhumabekov said that the CEC agreed 
with the OSCE/ODIHR, which had pointed out that such a ban 
could limit the freedom of peaceful meetings.  The CEC 
released a formal statement the same day responding to 
ODIHR's first interim report in detail.  The CEC described 
the ODIHR report as generally positive and reflecting the 
spirit of constructive cooperation between the OSCE/ODIHR 
and the CEC.  The statement noted that the report 
reflected EOM head Amb. Audrey Glover's commitment to 
unbiased observation without "double standards."  The CEC 
stated that it had taken action to implement a number of 
"reasonable" ODIHR recommendations, including canceling 
the Almaty procuracy's August 16 warning to Tuyakbay, 
streamlining the procedure for issuance of absentee 
registration cards, and introducing a draft amendment to 
revoke the April 2005 ban on peaceful rallies and public 
between the end of the campaign and the announcement of 
results.  (Note: The draft was sent to Parliament on 
November 15 but is unlikely to be passed before the 
presidential elections.)  The CEC is setting up a group of 
experts to work on further improvement of the election 
legislation. 
 
5. (U) The statement noted that the CEC did not agree with 
all the recommendations in the ODIHR report, however.  The 
most serious one concerns the composition of electoral 
commissions.  The CEC stated that Kazakhstan meets the 
requirement of the Copenhagen document regarding the 
ability of political parties and organizations to compete 
with one another on an equal basis.  It also stated that 
all legal political parties are represented on electoral 
commissions.  The CEC also disagreed with ODIHR's 
criticism of CEC decisions to deny registration to a 
number of candidates.  In the statement, the CEC expressed 
its readiness to review any reports of restriction of 
freedom of speech or abuse of power by local governments 
or law enforcement about which the OSCE has reliable 
evidence. 
 
 
Almaty Residents Support Nazarbayev 
----------------------------------- 
 
6. (U) About 73% of voters in Almaty plan to go to the 
polls on December 4, the Kazrating agency announced on 
November 7.  According to their survey, if the election 
were to be held the next Sunday, 71% of the electorate 
would vote for Nazarbayev, 17% for Tuyakbay, and 11% for 
Alikhan Baymenov, Yerasyl Abylkasymov and Mels Yeleusizov 
combined.  "At the same time, Almaty residents are not 
 
confident that the upcoming election will be fair and 
legitimate," Kazrating's executive director Maksim 
Kaznacheyev said.  "Only 14% expressed their confidence in 
that.  This figure is an indication that Astana may fail 
to hold a fair and legitimate election.  The power should 
change its approach to the election campaign and try to 
make it more transparent and flexible, so that there will 
be no rebukes for non-legitimacy." 
 
 
Interior Ministry Responds to Tuyakbay's Complaint 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
7. (U) As Zharmakhan Tuyakbay continued his election 
campaign with visits to Mangistau and Atyrau Oblasts this 
week, his election headquarters issued a statement 
addressed to the Central Election Commission (CEC) about 
provocative actions against Tuyakbay by unspecified 
individuals during his October 29 meeting at the Kosmos 
movie theater in Pavlodar (reftel).  The CEC forwarded the 
complaint to the Interior Ministry.  Vice Minister Alik 
Shpekbayev responded that they had received no complaints 
on the incident.  According to Shpekbayev, the oblast 
police provided for order around the Kosmos theater and 
recorded no violations.  The FJK security service was 
responsible for maintaining order inside the building. 
Shpekbayev stated that, in light of the statement from 
Tuyakbay's campaign headquarters, the Interior Ministry 
had taken appropriate measures to coordinate its 
activities with those of candidates' security services in 
order to prevent disorder in the future. 
 
 
Police Block FJK Film Screening 
------------------------------- 
 
8. (U) On November 11 in Almaty, the police tried to 
prevent Tuyakbay's campaign team from showing what 
authorities described as a film "defaming" President 
Nazarbayev.  Tuyakbay's proxy Gulzhan Yergaliyeva and 
three other opposition activists disobeyed the police 
order.  As a result, Yergaliyeva and her companions, 
Tatyana Chernyak, T. Aletova and A. Masymkhodjayeva, were 
detained and taken to the Bostandyk district police 
office.  The video camera and video tapes were seized, and 
administrative charges were filed against all four FJK 
activists.  In addition, Yergaliyeva was charged with 
disseminating slanderous material (Article 100 of the 
Administrative Code provides for up to 25,000 tenge or 
$186 fine).  The activists were released. 
 
 
Mass Media Coverage of the Campaign 
----------------------------------- 
 
9. (U) The Ministry of Culture, Information and Sport 
(MCIS) on November 7 released its second survey of mass 
media coverage of the presidential campaign during the 
preceding week.  The highest number of reports (81) were 
about Tuyakbay's campaign; 66 reports were about 
Baymenov's campaign; and 32 were about Yeleusizov's 
campaign.  The MCIS noted that its monitoring did not 
include materials related to Nazarbayev's activities as 
President.  The Ministry criticized Kazakh radio and 
Interfax agency for uneven coverage of the campaigns. It 
also warned media outlets against the publication of 
information marring the honor, dignity and reputation of 
the presidential candidates.  The survey was based on 
publications and news reports of the Kazakhstan-1 and 
Khabar TV channels, Kazakh Radio, Yegemen Kazakhstan and 
Kazakhstanskaya Pravda newspapers, and Kazinform news 
agency. 
 
 
International press center to cover elections 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
10. (U) A new international press center is opening to 
support coverage of the upcoming election.  Its two major 
offices will be located in Almaty and Astana; they will be 
equipped with advanced technology such as high-speed 
Internet, fax, and DVC.  Well-known political analysts 
will be invited to comment on the election campaigns. 
International reporters and observers are expected to do 
the bulk of their reporting on elections from the two 
 
centers. 
 
 
TV Debate 
--------- 
 
11. (U) The CEC has announced plans to conduct a televised 
debate on November 17, and sent letters to all candidates 
on November 5 inviting them to participate.  Tuyakbay 
initially responded that the debate would not be 
worthwhile unless Nazarbayev took part. 
 
12. (U) Interfax reported on November 12, however, that 
Tuyakbay had changed his mind and agreed to participate in 
the November 17 debate with Yerasyl Abylkasymov, Alikhan 
Baymenov, and Mels Yeleusizov.  Nazarbayev will be in Kiev 
on an official visit and therefore unable to take part. 
The topics for the debate include economic development, 
social issues, and domestic and foreign policy, the CEC 
reported.  The debate will be shown on the Khabar state TV 
channel at prime time and will last an hour and a half. 
 
 
Intermediate Report of Public Committee 
--------------------------------------- 
 
13. (U) The Public Integrity Committee for Control over 
Elections, chaired by Senator Sultanov, issued an 
intermediate report that concluded that there had been no 
serious violations of election legislation during the 
nomination campaign.  Unlike the OSCE report, the 
Kazakhstani committee underscored positive changes in the 
election legislation, such as accurate specification of 
the rights of observers, the right to check voters' lists 
in advance and make due corrections, etc.  The report 
concluded that all necessary conditions exist for holding 
fair and transparent elections in Kazakhstan. 
 
Opposition Figure Killed in Home 
-------------------------------- 
 
14. (SBU) Former Nazarbayev ally-turned-outspoken 
opposition figure Zamanbek Nurkadilov was found dead in 
his home on November 12.  The Almaty police announced on 
November 15 that Nurkadilov had been shot once in the head 
and twice in the body.  His own Cobalt revolver was found 
near his body.  According to the Nurkadilov family lawyer, 
the killer shot through a pillow.  The Almaty police also 
stated that preliminary analysis of video images from the 
16 security cameras on Nurkadilov's property showed that 
no strangers had entered the compound on the day of the 
murder.  The police are conducting a more detailed 
analysis of the footage.  While presidential candidate 
Zharmakhan Tuyakbay reportedly implied in his speech at 
Nurkadilov's funeral that he did not believe the 
authorities were involved in the incident, more radical 
opposition figures such as Gulzhan Yergaliyeva have made 
public accusations to the contrary.  Mazhilis member 
Mikhail Troshikhin's appeared to blame the opposition when 
he said that "only destructive forces which want to 
explode and shake the situation in Kazakhstan, which want 
blood" would benefit from Nurkadilov's death.  Nurkadilov 
was buried on November 15 in Almaty. 
 
 
ENEMO Observers Denied Accreditation 
------------------------------------ 
 
15. (SBU) The MFA informed the European Network of 
Election Monitoring Organizations (ENEMO) on November 7 
that its representatives would not be accredited as 
election observers because ENEMO did not meet the 
definition of an international organization.  The MFA 
cited the Law on International Agreements as defining an 
international organization as an interstate or 
intergovernmental organization.  Four ENEMO long-term 
observers from Ust-Kamenogorsk and Aktau were subsequently 
detained and ordered to leave the country.  In a November 
9 letter to FM Tokayev, the Ambassador expressed 
disappointment with the decision and noted that other 
organizations with the same legal status as ENEMO, 
including the CIS-EMO, had been accredited.  In response 
to the letter and post's interventions with the 
Presidential Administration, the GOK has reviewed the 
decision and advised the ENEMO observers to apply for 
 
accreditation under the auspices of NDI.  Post is working 
with NDI, the MFA, and the Presidential Administration to 
ensure that the accreditation process goes smoothly. 
 
ORDWAY 
 
 
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