US embassy cable - 05CAIRO8615

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 008615 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC STAFF FOR SINGH 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, EG, Parliamentary Elections 
SUBJECT: EGYPT: FIRST-STAGE RUNOFFS IN THE PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A. CAIRO 8602 
     B. CAIRO 8556 
     C. CAIRO 8555 
     D. CAIRO 8554 
     E. CAIRO 8546 
     F. CAIRO 8501 
 
Classified by ECPO Minister Counselor Michael Corbin for 
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) Polls officially opened at 8AM and will close at 7 PM 
on November 15 for runoffs in the first stage of the People's 
Assembly elections, which launched on November 9.  Runoffs 
are being held in 62 constituencies in five provinces 
including metropolitan Cairo, representing about 80 percent 
of all constituencies contested in the first stage.  Domestic 
monitoring groups, who had representatives at the majority of 
polling places, have issued preliminary findings citing 
access problems, voter list problems, and scattered reports 
of (apparently minor) violence and harassment.  Emboffs in 
the field observed a very strong and high profile Muslim 
Brotherhood (MB) presence at almost every polling station. 
Alienation from the GOE and strong affinity for the MB were 
in evidence in rural Giza, while in the warrens of central 
Cairo we observed a virtually open "vote market" in which 
citizens were paid LE 20 (about USD 3.50) by one candidate 
and LE 50 (about USD 8.75) by another for their votes. 
Today's races mainly pit ruling NDP candidates against either 
"NDP renegades" who are running as independents after they 
failed to get the party nomination, or MB candidates, who are 
also competing fiercely, in two-thirds of the races.  Results 
will probably be available sometime on November 16.  End 
summary. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Observations by Domestic Monitors 
--------------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) The Independent Committee on Election Monitoring 
(ICEM), led by Saad Eddin Ibrahim's Ibn Khaldoun Center, 
claims that 50 percent of polling places failed to open at 
the official 8 AM start time.  Another domestic monitoring 
group, the National Campaign for Monitoring the Elections 
(NCME) also cited a number of polling places that did not 
open on time.  At several polling places visited by poloff on 
November 15, local citizens made similar assertions. 
 
3. (SBU) As of late afternoon Cairo time, there have been 
very few reports of violent incidents.  ICEM reported that 
two of its observers were harassed.  In Giza an ICEM monitor 
was harassed by supporters of a local NDP candidate and in 
Assiyut an ICEM monitor was "interrogated" by police.   NCME 
reported skirmishes between supporters of NDP and MB 
candidates in the constituency of Badrasheen, next to the 
Saqarra step pyramid, and in Bandar Shebeen, in the Delta 
province of Manoufiya.  ICEM cited a skirmish between MB and 
NDP supporters in Assiyut. 
 
4. (SBU) ICEM complained of arbitrary decision-making by 
local electoral officials, some of whom allowed ICEM's 
monitors to enter polling stations and others who did not. 
ICEM noted that some local electoral officials cited a "new 
directive" reversing the stated policy of allowing domestic 
monitors access to polling places.   ICEM also noted that in 
a number of polling places, representatives of opposition 
candidates (all Muslim Brothers) were denied entry.  (Under 
Egypt's electoral law, every competing candidate has the 
right to post a representative in polling places to observe 
balloting and counting.) 
 
5. (C) At every polling place visited by emboff on November 
15, MB affiliates confirmed that they had a representative 
posted inside, but they expressed concern that they would be 
ejected at counting time (as they were, they alleged, on 
November 9).  NCME's initial report asserted that at a 
polling place in Minya, security forces systematically denied 
entry to voters suspected of being MB supporters.  (Note: 
This is the first allegation we have seen this election 
season of security forces blocking access to polling places. 
End note.) 
 
6. (C) NCME and ICEM are both citing widespread problems 
related to voter lists, frustrating many would-be voters who 
were unable to cast their ballots because their names could 
not be found.   This was also a leading complaint at all the 
polling places visited by emboffs. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
Snapshots from the Field:  Alienation in Rural Giza... 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
7. (C) Poloff visited the impoverished constituency of 
Ouseem, a densely populated village in Giza province, about 
10 miles north of the Giza pyramids.  Supporters of Muslim 
Brotherhood candidate Mahmoud Amer appeared to have saturated 
the area, with loudspeaker trucks, ubiquitous banners, and 
even a parade of about 20 7-10 year old boys, many carrying 
sticks and marching in formation, chanting "Islam is the 
solution."  At least 100 villagers quickly gathered around 
poloff, eager to share their opinions and complaints.   Among 
the things we heard: 
 
-- "We are sick of the NDP.  They do nothing for us.  Look at 
the roads you drove in on.  We do not even having running 
water in this village." 
 
-- "The NDP MPs are corrupt.  All they care about is getting 
free services from local businesses.  In exchange they 
promise to 'fix their taxes' but they do nothing for the 
poor." 
 
-- "I would vote for anyone who cares about the people.  The 
MB or anyone else, but never the NDP." 
 
8. (C) At least five different citizens we spoke with at 
random intervals in Ouseem repeated allegations that local 
GOE officials, either State Security agents or the "Umda"  -- 
the GOE appointed mayor -- were spreading the word, in some 
cases door to door, that anyone who votes for MB candidate 
Amer will find himself in jail.   One citizen claimed that 
the Umda in the neighborhood was going door to door, offering 
10LE as an inducement to vote, but warning that a vote cast 
for the MB would be a "big mistake." 
 
--------------------------------- 
...and the Vote Market in Maniyal 
--------------------------------- 
 
9. (C)  In Cairo's Maniyal constituency, just two miles south 
of the Embassy, poloff witnessed numerous flagrant instances 
of vote buying by both the NDP, on behalf of candidate 
Mamdouh Makki, and by supporters of the "Independent" (i.e., 
NDP dissident) Ms. Shahinaz Al-Naggar.  At the three polling 
stations we visited, representatives of both candidates 
waited outside of the polling stations.  The representatives 
gave voters entering the stations pre-printed cards with the 
respective candidates' names and other information. 
 
10. (C) Inside the polling stations, according to voters and 
candidates representatives with whom we spoke, voters would 
cast their votes for their "choice" and then have the 
pre-printed voting card certified in the station by the 
official candidate agents who were observing the casting of 
ballots, along with the judges, inside the stations.  When 
the voters emerged from casting their votes, they met again 
with the representatives who had supplied them the 
pre-printed cards, and exchanged the cards either for a cash 
payment or for a chit to redeem for cash at the offices of 
the respective candidates. 
 
11. (C) Several of the campaign workers outside the polling 
stations attempted to conceal their activities from poloff, 
once they realized who he was, but several others sheepishly 
described the process in detail to poloff.  Poloff saw at 
least 15 campaign workers, each surrounded by small throngs 
of about 10 voters each, at the Abou Saoud polling station in 
Maniyal who were all engaged in this vote buying process. 
Cash, voting receipts, and chits for payment were all 
publicly displayed.  According to one NDP worker worried 
about his candidate's hopes for success, the Shahinaz 
campaign's ability to pay LE 50 per vote (about USD 8.75) 
exceeded the Makki camp's self-imposed limit of LE 20 (about 
USD 3.50) per vote. 
 
12. (C) For its part, the Muslim Brotherhood was aggressively 
combating such transactions.  At several polling stations in 
the downtown constituency of Abdin, poloff saw groups of MB 
supporters chanting "today they'll buy your vote and tomorrow 
they'll sell you out." An MB pamphlet poloff collected in 
Abdin warned citizens that selling their votes was "forbidden 
by Islamic Shari'a."  An MB campaign volunteer at another 
Abdin polling place told poloff "MB supporters are 
honest...They may take the money, but they will still vote 
for us." 
 
 
RICCIARDONE