US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4586

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004586 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION SCENESETTER: MIAOLI COUNTY 
 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: In the complicated race for Miaoli County 
Magistrate, Kuomintang (KMT) Legislator Liu Cheng-hung, a 
Taiwanese, faces two main Hakka opponents: DPP candidate Chiu 
Ping-kun and People First Party (PFP) Legislator Hsu 
Yao-chang, who is running as an independent.  While all polls 
show Liu leading, the undecided vote is quite large and it is 
not clear whether Liu's being Taiwanese rather than Hakka 
will influence the outcome of the election in a county that 
has a strong Hakka majority and that has always had a Hakka 
magistrate.  The KMT categorizes Miaoli as a target county 
important to win in the run up to the 2008 presidential 
election.  Current Magistrate Fu Hsueh-peng is an independent 
and he has endorsed DPP candidate Chiu in an effort to obtain 
support from the DPP-controlled central government and 
possibly a position for himself.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (SBU) The race for Miaoli County magistrate is 
complicated by factional competition and personal rivalry and 
by the county's geographic and ethnic diversity. 
Traditionally in Taiwan, the Hakka and the Taiwanese (from 
southern Fujian) have not always gotten along well together, 
with the Hakka banding together to protect their interests 
against the Taiwanese.  The approximately 30 percent 
Taiwanese population in Miaoli is concentrated in the coastal 
area, while the 65 percent Hakka mostly live in the interior 
area of the county.  Three of the six candidates for county 
magistrate are competitive.  Current Magistrate Fu 
Hsueh-peng, an independent, is supporting the Democratic 
Progressive Party (DPP) candidate, Miaoli Mayor Chiu 
Ping-kun.  Chiu left the Kuomintang (KMT) to run under the 
DPP banner after losing the KMT nomination to KMT Legislator 
Liu Cheng-hung.  The third candidate is People First Party 
(PFP) Legislator Hsu Yao-chang, who is running as an 
independent.  Chiu and Hsu are Hakka, while Liu is Taiwanese. 
 Traditionally, the Miaoli magistrate has always been a 
Hakka.  All of the public opinion polls conducted by the 
media show Liu leading, Chiu second, and Hsu third, with a 
large undecided vote.  In Miaoli, AIT's contacts say, 
personal reputation and connections, ethnicity, and local 
factions can be more important factors in elections than 
political party. 
 
3.  (C) DPP Miaoli party chief Hsu Chin-jung told AIT that 
independent Magistrate Fu Hsueh-peng decided to support the 
DPP in this election because he believes that only a 
magistrate from the ruling DPP will receive central 
government support and be able to deliver on his campaign 
promises.  (Note: Press reporting has suggested that Fu's 
support for the DPP was tied to an offer by President Chen of 
a future position for Fu in the central government in return 
for endorsing the DPP candidate.  End Note.)  Acknowledging 
that Chiu is currently behind Liu in public opinion polls, 
Hsu predicted that Chiu will be able to close a gap of up to 
ten percent in the final stages of the campaign, as DPP 
candidates often do, and win the election.  Hsu provided a 
detailed breakdown on expected support for Chiu, predicting 
that Chiu will receive fifty percent of the Taiwanese vote 
and noting the importance of votes to be mobilized by 
Magistrate Fu.  Because Chiu was "blue," even "deep blue," he 
noted, some people may have trouble supporting him as a 
"green" candidate.  DPP chief Hsu charged independent 
candidate Hsu Yao-chang with publicizing a "false" poll by a 
university professor that showed Hsu ahead of Chiu for second 
place in the race.  According to an internal DPP poll 
conducted on October 28-29 and subsequently published in the 
local press, Hsu Chin-jung told AIT, support for Liu is 23.8 
percent, Chiu 16.7 percent, Hsu 10.2 percent, and the 
undecided are 49.3 percent. 
 
4.  (C) KMT Miaoli party chief Lee Chin-sung predicted to AIT 
that Liu Cheng-hung will win by a small number of votes, the 
main uncertain factor being how the ethnic issue will play 
out in the campaign's final days.  Lee suggested that the 
Hakka vote will split one-third each for the three main 
candidates, and that Liu's votes will be boosted by the 
Taiwanese vote and support from the two local factions (the 
Liu faction and part of the Huang faction) as well as the 
strong local KMT organization.  Before nominating Liu, the 
KMT conducted a poll and found that most voters do not care 
if their next magistrate is Taiwanese, with only a small 
minority insisting that the magistrate be Hakka, Lee said. 
The KMT's analysis also shows that a majority of undecided 
voters in Miaoli are pan-Blue supporters.  According to Lee, 
the Hakka identify with China and not just with Taiwan.  They 
do not support the DPP, which they view as a Taiwanese party 
with an independence ideology, he added.  The KMT has 
designated Miaoli as a target county in this election, Lee 
explained.  KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou has brought hope to the 
party, He said, and a victory by Liu in Miaoli will be 
important for the KMT chances in the 2008 presidential 
election.  (Note: The KMT is playing up Ma Ying-jeou in 
campaign posters that show Ma with his arm around Liu's 
shoulders.  End Note.) 
 
5.  (C) Liu Chan-lang, campaign manager for independent 
candidate and PFP member Hsu Yao-chang, told AIT that Hsu 
decided to run because the KMT did not respect Miaoli 
tradition and insisted on nominating a Taiwanese, adding that 
Hsu decided to run as an independent because he wants to be 
the magistrate for all the people and not just for one 
political party.  Based on a recent poll conducted by one of 
Hsu's university professors, Liu claimed that Hsu is now in 
second place in the race, ahead of DPP candidate Chiu, and he 
said Hsu hopes to win the election by capturing most of the 
votes from the Hakka and Mainlander communities, civil 
servants, teachers, state-owned enterprise employees, and the 
police.  Liu also suggested to AIT that the growing role of 
parties in Miaoli politics is a negative trend that will 
increase ethnic competition between the Hakka and Taiwanese 
in coming years, especially after the Legislative Yuan is 
restructured in 2007. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
6.  (C) There are many uncertainties in the Miaoli election: 
Can the KMT's Liu, a Taiwanese, attract undecided Hakka 
voters?  Will a split in the Hakka vote between Chiu, Hsu, 
and the three other Hakka candidates help elect Liu?   Will 
Chiu, who just defected from the KMT. be successful in 
mobilizing Taiwanese DPP supporters and the Hakka community? 
These and other complex factors make the Miaoli election 
interesting to watch and difficult to predict. 
Paal