US embassy cable - 05SANTIAGO2323

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTIAGO 002323 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/BSC 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, CI, Test Hot Topic 
SUBJECT: CHILE'S ELECTIONS: BACHELET SLIP IN POLLS; RUN-OFF 
INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE 
 
REF: A. SANTIAGO 1975 
 
     B. SANTIAGO 01342 
     C. SANTIAGO 01175 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Craig A. Kelly.  Reasons: 1.4 (b and d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: Concertacion presidential candidate Michelle 
Bachelet's recent slip in the polls to 40 percent increases 
the likelihood that no candidate will win more than 50 
percent on December 11 and a run-off election will be 
required.  Bachelet's two main rivals -- the Independent 
Democratic Union's Joaquin Lavin and the National Renewal's 
Sebastian Pinera -- continue to poll separately in the high 
teens or low 20s.  If Bachelet does not win over 50 percent 
on December 11, she and the second highest vote earner will 
move on to a run-off election on January 15, where it is 
plausible that the two rightist candidates' votes could 
combine, together with swing votes, to create a Lavin or 
Pinera victory.  End summary. 
 
The Poll 
-------- 
 
2. (U) One of Chile's conservative leading dailies, "El 
Mercurio," released on November 13 the results of a recent 
poll conducted in Chile's three largest cities (Santiago, 
Valparaiso and Concepcion).  According to the poll: 
 
--If elections were held today, 40.2 percent said they would 
vote for Bachelet, 20.5 for Lavin, 19.7 percent for Pinera, 
and 5.4 percent for Hirsch.  Undecideds numbered 14.2 percent. 
 
--In a Bachelet vs. Lavin run-off, 45.1 percent said they 
would vote for Bachelet and 29.1 percent for Lavin. 
Undecideds numbered 25.8 percent. 
 
--In a Bachelet vs. Pinera run-off, 46.9 percent said they 
would vote for Bachelet and 31.8 percent for Pinera. 
Undecideds numbered 21.3 percent. 
 
Compared with the results of the same poll taken in June, 
Bachelet and Lavin dropped two and 2.6 points, respectively. 
In contrast, Pinera gained two points.  Hirsch's standing 
remained generally unchanged. 
 
The Dynamic 
----------- 
 
3. (C) For the first time, Lavin's and Pinera's combined 
numbers equal those of Bachelet's.  "Together We Can" 
coalition leader Tomas Hirsch polls in the five to seven 
percent range, and likely gained at Bachelet's expense. 
 
4. (C) Some of the same observers who concluded in early 
September that the presidential race was over are rethinking 
their positions in light of Bachelet's declining numbers. 
The Embassy's Concertacion contacts, including Bachelet 
campaign advisor (and son of the president) Ricardo Lagos 
Weber, continue to predict a Bachelet victory.  However, they 
are less certain of a first-round victory than they were two 
months ago.  Some are even openly talking about a run-off 
election, in part to lessen the dismay and public 
embarrassment should Bachelet not win outright in December. 
The Embassy's Alianza contacts, including UDI Deputy and 
Lavin advisor Dario Paya, are beaming at Bachelet's drop in 
numbers, believing she peaked too early, and are confident 
there will be a run-off election. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
5. (C) As reported previously (reftels), Bachelet's numbers 
and charisma assure her a strong showing on December 11. 
However, there is no guarantee she will win the 50 percent 
plus one vote required to secure a first-round victory (Ref 
A).  If Bachelet does not win over 50 percent, she and the 
second highest vote earner will move on to a run-off election 
on January 15.  There are a number of variables that make it 
difficult for polls to predict how voters will vote in a 
run-off election: whether voters will be 
encouraged/discouraged by a second round; whether some 
Christian Democrats will drift to Pinera; whether Bachelet 
recaptures all of the Hirsch vote; and whether undecideds go 
right or left.  In one entirely plausible run-off scenario, 
the right could win the election if Lavin and Pinera 
supporters unite behind the one remaining Alianza candidate 
and if the right secures enough of the swing and/or undecided 
vote. 
KELLY