US embassy cable - 05PORTAUPRINCE2820

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT AU PRINCE 002820 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR 
DRL 
S/CRS 
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAR 
INR/IAA (BEN-YEHUDA) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, HA, Elections 
SUBJECT: HAITI ELECTIONS VOTE COUNT, QUICK COUNT, 
CREDIBILITY 
 
 
1. Summary: The February electoral decree provides five days 
for results to move from the voting centers (BVs) to the 
Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) through the communal and 
departmental electoral bureaus (BECs/BEDs).  MINUSTAH and the 
CEP have agree that throughout the process, MINUSTAH will 
transport results and the Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) 
will tally and announce them.  However, while MINUSTAH 
prefers to move results by truck and helicopter, some CEP 
members prefer to transmit them by satellite.  However, a 
recent partial test of the satellite system failed.  MINUSTAH 
plans an internal quick count to verify results once they 
have reached the communal election bureaus (BECs).  The 
Canadian Government contends MINUSTAH should not run the 
quick count because of its role in the electoral process. 
The EU Mission suggested that its monitoring mission might 
run a quick count instead.  In addition, Canadian diplomats 
proposed using the USAID-funded political party support 
centers to bolster local press coverage of election night to 
help strengthen the credibility of the results. End Summary. 
 
CEP will Count, MINUSTAH will Transport 
--------------------------------------- 
 
2. The vote counting plan outlined in the February electoral 
decree called for results to be passed from voting centers to 
the Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) through communal and 
departmental electoral bureaus, but the CEP and MINUSTAH 
support separate counting plans that would centralize as much 
of the process as possible.  According to the February 
electoral decree, MINUSTAH and the Provisional Electoral 
Council (CEP) will have five days to count votes and release 
results: 24 hours for results to reach the communal electoral 
bureaus (BEC) from the voting centers (BVs); 24 hours for the 
results to reach the departmental electoral bureaus (BEDs); 
and 48 hours for the results to reach the CEP.  The CEP has 
long supported using the National Bank,s V-SAT satellite 
communication system to transmit results from the BECs to 
Port-au-Prince and centralize results tabulation.  The CEP 
arranged to use the National Bank of Haiti's old V-SAT 
system, but has not procured and installed the additional 
equipment necessary for satellite transmission in all of the 
BECs.  During the week of October 31 - November 4, the CEP,s 
first partial test of the system was unsuccessful because the 
National Bank,s generator failed.  MINUSTAH election 
officials agree that centralized counting would increase 
transparency, but argue the V-SAT system is too expensive and 
liable to fail.  They advocate using helicopters to transport 
results (but not ballots, which will be securely stored near 
voting centers) from the BECs to Port-au-Prince and counting 
the results centrally. 
 
MINUSTAH Proposes Quick Count - EU Better Option 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
3. In an effort to discourage cheating, MINUSTAH proposed a 
parallel quick count.  According to MINUSTAH quick count 
consultant Glenn Cowan, MINUSTAH would use results from a 
sampling of 75 - 100 BECs, which would enable the quick count 
to be accurate to within 'a few' percent.  Given the 
international presence on the ground, he said, a 
statistically relevant quick count would cost as little as 
USD 100,000. 
 
4. Members of the international community support a quick 
count, but oppose MINUSTAH,s involvement.  A Canadian 
diplomat observed that because MINUSTAH is administering 
elections, not only is it already overburdened, Haitians 
would question its neutrality.  Bias against MINUSTAH would 
undermine the purpose of the quick count by making it useless 
to publicly verify results.  She also worried that losers 
might attempt to foment a nationalistic backlash by claiming 
MINUSTAH manipulated elections and covered its tracks by 
verifying its own work.  Confronted with the Canadian 
assessment, LeChevallier said the quick count would be an 
internal MINUSTAH document used only to pressure the IGOH and 
CEP, verifying the Canadian assessment. 
 
5. EU officers volunteered to consider a quick count as part 
of the EU monitoring mission.  Friends of Haiti 
representatives supported the idea as the best source of a 
quick count and noted that the EU's 44 medium term, observers 
slated to arrive in the coming weeks, and 40 short-term 
observers, for election days, would provide coverage for an 
accurate quick count.  The EU Mission has requested guidance 
from Brussels, but has not yet received a response. 
 
Media Could Lend Results Credibility 
------------------------------------- 
 
6. The Canadian embassy unofficially proposed supporting 
elections results by funding the Haitian media to provide 
election night coverage from the BEC level.  MINUSTAH 
elections officials agreed with the need for robust local 
media coverage, but said because most fraud is likely to 
occur before results arrive at the BECs, the same result 
could be achieved by reporting from the BED level.  They 
proposed using the USAID funded political party centers as 
press buildings on election nights.  USAID and UNOPS believe 
the plan is feasible and are exploring the technical aspects 
of how to best use the centers. 
 
Quick Count Must be Neutral 
--------------------------- 
 
7. Comment:  Haiti's history of electoral fraud makes 
multiple-source reporting of results critical to accepted 
elections.  However, a quick count must be a public document 
for it to be useful verifying results.  A MINUSTAH quick 
count would fail in that measure, but an EU-run quick count 
would not.  The EU's 84 total observers would provide roughly 
the right number of sample points from the BECs.  Post 
recommends pushing the EU to include a quick count in its 
monitoring plan. 
 
GRIFFITHS