US embassy cable - 05CAIRO8602

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 008602 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC STAFF FOR SINGH 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, EG, Elections, Parliamentary Elections 
SUBJECT: EGYPT: PATTERNS EMERGING AS PA ELECTIONS MOVE TO 
RUNOFFS ON NOVEMBER 15 
 
REF: A. CAIRO 8556 
 
     B. CAIRO 8555 
     C. CAIRO 8554 
     D. CAIRO 8546 
     E. CAIRO 8501 
 
Classified by ECPO Minister-Counselour Michael Corbin for 
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) Runoffs for the first stage of Egypt's parliamentary 
elections will be held on November 15.  Almost 80 percent of 
the constituencies will have runoffs.  Emerging patterns 
include a predictably strong performance by the ruling NDP, a 
noteworthy show of strength by the Muslim Brotherhood, and a 
miserable showing by the recognized opposition parties.  The 
independent/opposition press, and Egyptian contacts, are 
seized by developments in two constituencies in which 
intimidation and/or manipulation appears to have been 
particularly blatant.  Domestic observers, who were a 
prominent feature of the November 9 polls, will again be out 
in force on November 15, and emboffs will also be out to take 
readings at a number of polling sites.  End Summary. 
 
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Stage One: Round Two 
-------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) The first stage of People's Assembly elections, 
covering metropolitan Cairo and several provinces in the 
Delta, Upper Egypt, and the Western Desert, will continue on 
November 15, with runoff elections.  The runoffs will be 
staged in 62 constituencies, representing about 80 percent of 
the constituencies competed on November 9.  (According to 
Egyptian law, candidates must secure at least 51 percent of 
the vote to be elected.  If they fail to do so in the first 
round, the two leading candidates advance to a runoff.) 
 
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Patterns 
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3. (C) With so many of the races going to runoffs, it is too 
early to make many definitive pronouncements about the first 
stage of the elections, but several significant patterns 
appear to be emerging: 
 
-- Official candidates of the NDP performed generally well, 
although most will still have to compete in runoffs. 
 
-- Independent candidates who are affiliated to the NDP but 
who failed to secure the party's nomination are the second 
strongest candidate category.   Observers anticipate that 
these candidates, if elected, will be welcomed back into the 
NDP to join the majority bloc. 
 
-- Muslim Brotherhood candidates (who are nominally 
independent) also made a strong showing.  They will compete 
in 42 of the 62 runoffs. 
 
-- Recognized opposition parties fared miserably, failing to 
secure any seats in the first round.  Only 9 opposition party 
candidates will compete in runoffs on November 15.  Of these, 
most are long-shots.  While there are still two more stages 
of elections, each with likely run-offs, at this rate the 
recognized opposition parties will be lucky to retain their 
tiny presence in the outgoing parliament. 
 
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Irregularities 
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4. (C) As discussed reftels, domestic election monitors were 
out in force on November 9 and will also be deployed in large 
numbers on November 15.  Among the irregularities documented 
by the monitors on November 9 were: 
 
-- flawed voter registries containing missing entries, 
multiple entries, and many deceased voters; 
 
-- late openings and early or unexplained closures of polling 
stations in numerous districts; 
 
-- credible allegations of vote buying in many districts, 
(including several instances witnessed by Embassy observers); 
 
-- several cases of stolen/missing ballot boxes;  and 
 
-- scattered intimidation of voters. 
 
5. (SBU) Although there were several reports of firearms 
discharged in different districts, we are aware of no 
fatalities occurring on November 9.  (By contrast in the 2000 
PA elections, 12 people were killed in violence during the 
Cairo round.) 
 
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Extreme Examples 
---------------- 
 
6. (C) While predictions that fraud and intimidation would 
take on relatively more subtle forms this year have so far 
proven accurate, there has been considerable indignation in 
the opposition and independent press, echoed by our contacts, 
about two races in particular: 
 
-- In the Dokki district of Giza, the parliamentary elections 
commission has twice revised its official pronouncements on 
the race pitting MB Hazem Abou Ismail against NDP scion (and 
Deputy PA Speaker) Amal Othman.  Although the commission 
pronounced Abou Ismail the outright winner on November 10 
(ref A), by November 11 they announced that Abou Ismail had 
not actually won an outright majority and would have to go to 
a runoff against Othman.  Outrage from Ismail's supporters 
was compounded on November 12 when the elections commission 
announced that a further recount determined that Othman had 
won outright and that there would be no runoff.  Belief that 
these results were unsubtly manipulated is nearly universal 
in Cairo. 
 
-- More information is emerging about the successful efforts 
of NDP candidate Yahya Wahdan, a Colonel in the State 
Security office until three weeks ago, to unseat leading 
opposition figure Ayman Nour in the working class Cairo 
neighborhood of Bab Shariya.  A journalist contact told us he 
was present in a polling station when Wahdan's brother, 
accompanied by a thuggish entourage, ejected Ghad Party 
representatives there to observe the counting, adding that 
these expulsions occurred at many polling stations in the 
district.  Another journalist wrote that he had witnessed a 
judge in a polling station systematically invalidating 
ballots for Nour during the count. 
 
-- Both Nour and Abou Ismail are contesting the results in 
administrative court and will get a hearing on November 22. 
 
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Results Annulled in Four Districts 
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7. (SBU) In another sign of judicial regulation of the 
electoral process, an administrative court annulled on 
November 13 the results in four constituencies and ordered 
that they be re-competed, with the timing and modalities to 
be worked out.  The court rulings are based on an archaic 
clause of the constitution, still applied literally, which 
reserves 50 percent of the PA seats to "workers" and 
"farmers."  Court action in these particular districts 
appears to have been triggered by specific challenges to the 
qualifications of individual candidates.  One of the four 
constituencies that will have repeat elections is Wayli, 
where Mounir Abdel Nour, the prominent Christian businessman 
and leader of the Wafd Party's tiny parliamentary bloc was 
initially pronounced defeated. 
 
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Looking Ahead 
------------- 
 
8. (SBU) After the results of the November 15 runoffs become 
available, probably sometime on November 16, we will have a 
clearer picture of the key trends in this year's PA 
elections.  The second round of parliamentary races, to be 
staged in much of the Nile Delta and Alexandria, kick off on 
November 20, and the final round will commence on December 1, 
with the last runoffs on December 7. 
 
 
RICCIARDONE