US embassy cable - 05WARSAW3825

C O N F I D E N T I A L WARSAW 003825 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2015 
TAGS: PREL, MARR, MASS, PL, Iraqi Freedom Coalition 
SUBJECT: POLISH MILITARY PREPARES TO REMAIN IN IRAQ, BUT 
AWAITS POLITICAL DECISION 
 
REF: WARSAW 3794 
 
Classified By: Polcouns Mary T. Curtin for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY.  During the November 8-9 Force Generation 
Conference in Warsaw for the sixth rotation of the 
Multinational Division Center-South (MND-CS) in Iraq, the 
Chief of Strategic Planning for the Polish General Staff 
outlined plans for a continued, albeit reduced Polish 
presence in Iraq.  However, newly named DefMin Sikorski 
cautioned that all Polish offers made during the conference 
were "provisional" pending a political decision from the new 
government.  Bulgaria, Lithuania, Mongolia and Romania also 
signaled draw downs.  Throughout the conference, the Poles 
underscored their eagerness to change the mission from 
stabilization and training to advisory and training.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
2. (C) During the conference, Chief of Strategic Planning 
Colonel Leszek Soczewica reported that Poland had made 
provision for sending 1,000 troops to Iraq for the sixth 
rotation, a decrease from the current level of 1,454 troops. 
 Soczewica noted that Polish troop strength would ultimately 
depend on allied troop contributions, as Poland might be able 
to add troops to compensate for reductions by other nations. 
In a November 8 meeting with Ambassador Ashe, DefMin Sikorski 
cautioned that all Polish offers made during the conference 
were "provisional," as the new government had not yet at that 
time been confirmed and so could not take any political 
decisions on future Polish deployments in Iraq. 
 
3. (C) Ukraine reminded attendees that its government had 
already decided to withdraw almost completely by December 31, 
2005.  Bulgaria and Mongolia warned that they still needed 
government approval to participate in the sixth rotation. 
Romania and Lithuania also forecast reductions in their 
contingents.  A summary of current and projected troop totals 
for the 13 nations participating in the MND-CS follows. 
 
 
Nation           Now          Plan for 2006 
 
Armenia           45           46 
Bulgaria         378            0 (GOB decision pending) 
Denmark            5            5 
El Salvador      380          380 
Kazakhstan        28           28 
Latvia           135          135 
Lithuania         54           10 
Mongolia         130            0 (GOM decision pending) 
Poland          1454         1000 
Romania          218          150 
Slovakia         103          103 
Ukraine          889           13 
USA               17           17 
 
4. (C) Soczewica reiterated Poland's oft-expressed intent to 
transition as soon as possible from a stabilization mission 
to a training and advisory mission.  From the outset, the 
conference focused heavily on generating commitments to 
Military Transition Teams (33 person groups) at the division, 
brigade and battalion level to facilitate this transition. 
In Soczewica's opinion this new mission would reduce the 
allied profile in Iraq by transferring more security 
responsibilities to the Iraqis themselves. 
 
----------------- 
Allies Lowballing 
----------------- 
 
5. (C) COMMENT: The General Staff (and former DefMin 
Szmajdzinski) had previously told us that the current Polish 
defense budget for 2006 could support as many as 1,000 troops 
in Iraq.  Soczewica softened the blow of publicly stating the 
reduced troop figure by mentioning Poland's readiness to 
backfill for the draw downs of other allies.  If Poland were 
to maintain its current troop level of 1,454, that would 
nearly cover the projected loss of Bulgarians, Lithuanians 
and Romanians.  Unfortunately, there are not enough Polish or 
other MND-CS TCN troops available at present to make up for 
the withdrawal of over 800 Ukrainians. 
 
6. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: Now that the government has won the 
November 10 vote of confidence, it will need to make a 
political decision about remaining in Iraq.  As reported in 
reftel, DefMin Sikorski sees his November 30 visit to 
Washington playing into that decision.  END COMMENT. 
HILLAS