US embassy cable - 05ISTANBUL1941

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 001941 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EINV, ECON, EFIN, TU, Istanbul 
SUBJECT: INVESTMENT CONFERENCE PRAISES TURKEY'S PROGRESS 
BUT HEARS WARNING ABOUT CONTINUING RISKS 
 
REF: A. ISTANBUL 692 
 
     B. ANKARA 2070 
     C. ISTANBUL 1716 
 
This message is sensitive but unclassified-- not for internet 
distribution.  This message was coordinated with Embassy 
Ankara. 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: A November 8-9 investment conference 
organized by Turkey's Foreign Investors' Association (YASED) 
offered GOT policymakers a chance to highlight progress 
registered in recent years and to underline their readiness 
to accept foreign investment, whatever its source.  Business 
participants generally applauded Turkey's achievements, while 
stressing that much remains to be done.  Press coverage, 
however, focused on Johns Hopkins University economist Steven 
Hanke's warning of the risk of another financial crisis, as a 
result of the country's current account deficit and 
overvalued currency, which he argued parallel the conditions 
that preceded the country's 1994 and 2001 financial crises. 
Hanke, a well-known critic of IMF programs, neglected to note 
key differences with 1994 and 2001: a floating exchange rate 
and stronger fundamentals. End Summary. 
 
2. (U) Open Arms: The two-day YASED Conference, 
optimistically titled "The New Favorite Destination for 
Foreign Direct Investment: Turkey, Where Opportunities 
Abound," brought together a range of GOT policymakers and 
foreign and domestic business leaders.  Both Prime Minister 
Erdogan and State Minister Babacan used the platform to 
stress the Turkish government's determination to attract 
foreign direct investment without regard to its "color or 
identity."  In his address to participants, Erdogan said he 
would welcome foreign investment "with respect, be it Arab, 
Jewish, or Western."  He criticized those who oppose foreign 
investment, and in a pointed rejoinder to critics of his 
earlier meetings with Israeli investor Sami Ofer, who won a 
controversial tender for Istanbul's Galataport earlier this 
year (ref C), met with Ofer's son, who was attending the 
conference.  Both Erdogan and Babacan stressed that foreign 
investment is critical to Turkey's future, as only it will 
permit the country to overcome its central economic 
challenge-- continued high unemployment. 
 
3. (U) Still work to do: For their part, both Turkish and 
international business leaders repeated messages that were 
delivered earlier this year at Turkey's second Investment 
Advisory Council (IAC) meeting (ref a).  They praised the 
country's newfound macroeconomic stability, but stressed the 
need for continued work to improve the country's legal and 
financial infrastructure.  Mohammed Hariri, Vice President of 
the Saudi Oger Group, which won the tender for Turk Telekom, 
praised the GOT for the "transparency" and fairness of that 
privatization process, but stressed that high tax rates on 
telecommunications services are a real drag on the sector.  A 
number of Gulf business leaders argued that Turkey should 
more actively target Gulf capital, given that it has become 
"more difficult" for such capital to invest in the U.S. and 
Europe since September 11.  YASED President Saban Erdikler 
also pressed for action to create a national investment 
promotion agency under the Prime Ministry, an issue that has 
been stalled for years as a result of disagreements both over 
whether the body should be primarily private or public in 
nature, and over whether it should report to the Prime 
Minister or to Babacan. 
 
4. (SBU) Clouds: Given these fairly standard messages, press 
attention fixed on the warning delivered by Johns Hopkins 
University economics professor Steven Hanke that Turkey's 
current account deficit and overvalued exchange rate are 
reminiscent of conditions that prevailed before the country's 
1994 and 2001 financial crises.  Hanke stressed that he is 
not predicting such a crisis, but simply wished to highlight 
risks that exist in the economy.  Other participants were 
quick to take issue with his analysis, however-- World Bank 
Turkey Representative Andrew Vorkink pointed out that other 
elements are quite different from earlier years, in that 
inflation has dropped drastically and longer term foreign 
investments are on the rise.  He predicted that FDI will 
increase 2-3 times in coming years.  (Babacan noted that in 
the first eight months of the year the country received 2.9 
billion USD in foreign investment; above the 1.9 billion 
registered last year.) 
 
5. (SBU) Comment: The YASED event broke little new ground but 
offered a useful opportunity for the Turkish government to 
take on nationalist critics who have spoken up in opposition 
to foreign investment in recent months.  Prime Minister 
Erdogan in particular addressed the issue head on, both 
through his public comments and his meeting with Eylal Ofer. 
More generally, business leaders took the opportunity to 
highlight the fact that work is not yet done to make Turkey 
an attractive destination for foreign investment, and that 
attention needs to be paid to structural issues such as 
Turkey's tax and legal system.  Hanke's point regarding the 
current account deficit is one that economists here have been 
grappling with for months.  The need to finance a large 
current account deficit does make Turkey vulnerable to 
external shocks, as a Lehman Brothers report concluded last 
week.  However, Hanke-- a well-known critic of IMF programs-- 
is in a distinct minority.  Most analysts downplay the risk 
of a full-blown crisis.  Embassy Ankara concluded in ref B 
that Turkey, with its floating exchange rate regime (since 
2001), is more likely to experience a "correction" than a 
crisis if short-term investors, who currently finance the 
bulk of the deficit, head for the exits.  The debate did put 
something of a damper on the conference's celebration of 
Turkey's progress-- "Storm warning over Turkey's economy" 
(from the Financial Times) was likely not the international 
reaction YASED was seeking.  End Comment. 
JONES