US embassy cable - 05MANAMA1674

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 001674 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2015 
TAGS: PREL, KDEM, KMPI, BA, EG, DE 
SUBJECT: EUR A/S FRIED MEETS WITH DANISH STATE SECRETARY 
CARSTEN STAUR, NOVEMBER 12, 2005, MANAMA, BAHRAIN 
 
Classified By: DCM Susan L. Ziadeh for reasons 1.4 b, d. 
 
1.  (SBU) Meeting Held on November 12, 2005, 15:30, at the 
Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Manama, Bahrain. 
 
2.  (SBU) Participants: 
 
U.S. 
A/S Fried 
Leslie Tsou (TDY Notetaker) 
 
Denmark 
State Secretary Carsten Staur 
Tomas Christensen, Middle East Department Director 
 
3.  (C) Summary.  Following the November 12 Forum for the 
Future Ministerial Meeting in Bahrain, Danish State Secretary 
Carsten Staur and Assistant Secretary for European Affairs 
Dan Fried agreed that establishing the Forum is an important 
step forward in the global war on terror.  A/S Fried noted 
that the failure to announce the Bahrain Declaration was 
caused by the Egyptians, who insisted on language that would 
have restricted regional NGOs.  On Iraq, Staur indicated the 
Danish government would probably extend its mandate until 
July, but would need to consider carefully what role it could 
best play after that.  A/S Fried pointed out that the 
situation in Iraq may have developed favorably by July and 
that Denmark might be able to extend its presence in a 
different form.  Staur expressed Denmark,s concern about 
Iraq,s plans for out-of-country voting in the December 15 
elections.  He said Denmark would consider a possible joint 
U.S.-European mission to Belarus to warn President Lukashenko 
of the consequences of fraud in next year,s elections. 
Staur also agreed that Europe needs to pay greater attention 
to events in the South Caucasus and Eastern Europe (Ukraine, 
Belarus and Moldova).  End summary. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
Danish Support for the Forum for the Future 
------------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) A/S Fried thanked Denmark for its contribution to the 
Forum for the Future.  Staur said that despite the Forum,s 
failure to issue the Bahrain Declaration, the meeting was a 
significant achievement and an important step forward in the 
global war on terror.  A/S Fried said Egypt,s insistence on 
language that would restrict NGO activities was the cause 
that the declaration was not announced.  In any event, the 
important thing now is to keep pushing forward.  Staur 
agreed, noting the French attitude that the Forum is in 
direct competition with the Barcelona Process is also not 
helpful. 
 
---- 
Iraq 
---- 
 
5.  (C) Staur said that Denmark,s parliamentary mandate in 
Iraq expires on February 1, but that the Danish government 
will likely succeed in getting a parliamentary continuance 
until July.  After that, Denmark will need to assess the 
situation on the ground.  A/S Fried encouraged Denmark to 
consider the future in terms of a possibly different 
landscape in Iraq, with a new Iraqi government and a 
constitutional process underway.  Denmark could conceivably 
extend in a different form. 
 
6.  (C) Denmark is worried about Iraq,s plans to conduct 
out-of-country voting in the December elections, Staur said. 
Previous efforts required an IOM staff of 100 people and 
three months of preplanning, but the Iraqis have just 
dispatched a handful of people to Copenhagen with only one 
month before the election.  The Danish government worries 
that if the out-of-country vote ends in chaos, the Danish 
public will doubt the entire election.  Denmark is also 
concerned that the Iraqis are sending their best people 
abroad when they need to be focusing on election arrangements 
domestically.  A/S Fried said he would look into the matter. 
 
------- 
Belarus 
------- 
 
7.  (C) A/S Fried said the U.S. is considering a joint 
U.S.-European delegation to Minsk as early as December to 
convey the strong message to Belarussian President Lukashenko 
that the international community is not prepared to recognize 
the results of a fraudulent election in 2006, or a fraudulent 
referendum on a union with Russia.  Staur said such a mission 
is an excellent opportunity for U.S.-European cooperation and 
that Denmark would consider supporting it. 
---------------------------------- 
Azerbaijan/Former Soviet Republics 
---------------------------------- 
8.  (C) On Azerbaijan,s elections, A/S Fried said the U.S. 
has called for President Aliyev to address fraud in the 
districts where it occurred, but has not outright condemned 
the elections or Aliyev himself.  Staur agreed that Europe 
needs to focus more attention on the Caucasus and the former 
Soviet republics.  Once Turkey joins, the EU will border 
Iraq.  A/S Fried noted that this region was a place where 
Europe and the U.S. could cooperate closely. 
 
9.  (U) This message has been cleared by A/S Fried. 
 
 
MONROE