US embassy cable - 05MANILA5328

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 005328 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS 
NSC FOR H. MORROW 
SECDEF/OSD/ISA/AP FOR ALLEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINS, PINR, RP 
SUBJECT: GRP CONTINUES TO CONSIDER EMERGENCY RULE 
 
REF: A. MANILA 5166 
 
     B. MANILA 5137 
     C. MANILA 5126 
     D. MANILA 5023 
     E. MANILA 5018 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Paul W. Jones for reasons 
1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (S) Summary/Comment:  EAP DAS John underscored the USG's 
firm opposition to the imposition of emergency rule or any 
other similar measures during separate meetings with 
President Arroyo, Foreign Secretary Alberto Romulo, and 
defense officials on November 11.  Both Arroyo and Romulo 
indicated that they consider emergency rule, as provided for 
by the Constitution, to be a legitimate option.  Other senior 
officials have told us that emergency rule is under active 
consideration, but reassured us that it is unlikely to be 
imposed imminently.  It is unclear to us precisely what 
emergency rule provisions are under consideration, and for 
what purpose.  A National Security Council meeting scheduled 
for November 15 may discuss the issue.  Charge will continue 
to convey to senior officials our opposition to emergency 
rule, even within the bounds of the constitution, to senior 
officials in the coming days.  End Summary/Comment. 
 
2.  (S) During a November 11 meeting with President Gloria 
Macapagal Arroyo at Malacanang Palace (septel), EAP DAS Eric 
John asked about reports that the Arroyo Administration was 
considering emergency rule or other measures in response to 
perceived threats from the Opposition (ref A).  He conveyed 
that emergency rule would raise significant concerns in 
Washington.  Arroyo replied that the "Constitution defines 
what we can do," asserting that her administration may 
legally invoke certain emergency measures.  (Note:  There are 
several provisions under the 1987 Constitution which give the 
President certain limited emergency powers.  End Note.)  DAS 
John noted that although such measures technically are 
Constitutional, they would still send a worrying signal and 
that it would be hard for policy makers in Washington to put 
such moves in a positive context.  DAS John also pointed out 
that the invocation of emergency measures could trigger a 
review of U.S. defense-related and other assistance to the 
Philippines.  The President responded only with a defiant 
stare. 
 
3.  (S) DAS John separately reiterated these USG concerns 
during a November 11 meeting with Foreign Secretary Alberto 
Romulo.  Romulo assured John that the GRP would not take any 
extra-Constitutional measures, leaving the impression that 
Constitutional measures are indeed under consideration.  He 
added that this government will do "everything the 
Constitution allows" to protect its position. 
 
4.  (S) Senior defense officials appeared to be less 
concerned with the possibility of emergency rule during a 
November 11 working luncheon with DAS John.  Undersecretary 
of Defense for Philippine Defense Reform Ernesto Carolina 
claimed that the matter was "newspaper talk."  He added that 
the public would never support such a move and that most in 
the military would not, either.  Undersecretary of Defense 
for Legal and Priority Affairs Rodel Cruz noted that the 
Department of National Defense has, as in the past, been 
involved in reviewing measures to take in case of any sort of 
national emergency situation "as part of day-to-day 
planning."  He stressed that this review was "purely 
theoretical." 
 
5.  (S)  In a side conversation on November 8 in Davao City, 
cabinet-ranking Chairman of the Mindanao Economic Development 
Council "Jess" Dureza told Charge that emergency rule plans 
were in place to respond quickly to any extra-constitutional 
attack on the government.  He acknowledged that some top 
officials, such as National Security Advisor Gonzales and 
Justice Minister Gonzalez, believed the government was 
already under siege by communists, terrorists and political 
opponents, but he doubted that the President would use 
emergency powers in the absence of a strong provocation.  He 
said he would use the opportunity of a National Security 
Council meeting scheduled for November 15 to argue against 
any preemptive use of emergency powers. 
 
6.  (S) During a dinner in honor of DAS John on November 11, 
Speaker of the House Jose de Venecia raised emergency rule 
consideration with A/DCM, claiming that the "alliance" of 
party list leftists in Congress, the New People's Army, and 
Opposition figures might make such a step necessary.  He said 
that his own efforts to achieve Constitutional change and 
improve the political system were actually aimed in part at 
undermining the temptation to resort to such measures.  After 
defending the possible need for emergency measures at length, 
de Venecia claimed that he was "physically and emotionally 
exhausted" and would leave the Philippines if ever such 
measures were adopted, as he had during the Marcos martial 
law period. 
 
7.  (S) Comment:  It is clearer than ever that consideration 
of such emergency measures is ongoing at very senior levels. 
Not clear is:  whether any decision is imminent; what form 
emergency rule would take; or whether it might be imposed 
preemptively or only in response to a serious attack on the 
government.  DAS John's visit provided a timely opportunity 
for a senior USG official to underscore our opposition 
unambiguously, a theme we will continue to reiterate at every 
opportunity, including upcoming meetings with Executive 
Secretary Ermita and National Security Advisor Gonzales. 
 
SIPDIS 
 
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Jones