US embassy cable - 05DUSHANBE1814

C O N F I D E N T I A L  DUSHANBE 001814 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
STATE FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/RUS, SA, S/P 
NSC FOR MERKEL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  11/14/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, KDEM, RS, TI 
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN:  IMAGINED REPORT TO MOSCOW BY THE RUSSIAN 
AMBASSADOR 
 
REF: DUSHANBE 1812 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Richard E. Hoagland, Ambassador, EXEC, Embassy Dushanbe. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
CLASSIFIED BY: Richard E. Hoagland, Ambassador, EXEC, Embassy 
Dushanbe. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
1.  (C) The following is an Embassy Dushanbe exercise to imagine 
a report that Russian Ambassador Ramazan Abdulatipov might 
submit to the Kremlin.  It draws on Post's observations of the 
last 18 months, Russian and regional media reports, and other 
reporting.  This cable should be read as a companion piece to 
reftel. 
 
2.  (C) BEGIN TEXT: 
 
Respected Vladimir Vladimirovich! 
 
I want to report to you that we can put Tajikistan firmly in the 
"stable" column, thanks to the groundwork you've laid since 
early last year.  In response to the American's stabbing their 
"Friend Shevandnadze" in the back at the end of 2003 (not to 
mention Kiev and Bishkek!), our consistent message from the 
beginning of these "color revolutions" has paid off - that the 
U.S. so-called democracy NGOs are really covert intel tools sent 
under the guise of "assistance" to plant the seeds of popular 
revolution to overthrow legal governments.  We picked off 
National Democratic Institute early on here because they had set 
themselves up by not having registered properly in previous 
years.  We should never under-estimate the power of Soviet-style 
legalism when we need to use it.  Even better, at the very same 
time we set that particular samovar bubbling, the hapless 
Americans sent in Freedom House.  Knowing how long any 
bureaucracy takes to gear up, it was probably just a 
coincidence, but the optic was perfect.  I wish you could have 
seen Tajik President Emomali Sharifovich Rahmonov's expression 
when we laid out the whole scenario for him.  We rightly judge 
that he has an abundance of street smarts and a dangerous 
independent streak that bears close watching, but in the end 
he's just like the others we deal with, burning to hang onto 
power at any price. 
 
Your first great public triumph in Tajikistan was when you went 
to Dushanbe on October 16 last year to initial the agreements on 
debt forgiveness, the legal-basis establishment of our permanent 
military base, and our tactical withdrawal of the FSB Border 
Force.  I especially liked the way our clever guys got the word 
to Emomali Sharifovich, "Protect our base, or we'll find someone 
who can."  Yes, we had to bite the bullet to get control of the 
essential Nurek Space Object Tracking station, that was ours in 
the first place, but you know why it was worth it. 
 
It was well understood in advance part of the debt deal included 
Chubais from RAO UES agreeing to sink some non-money into 
Emomali Sharifovich's pet hydro-electric projects that the West 
had pooh-poohed up until that time.  But the real stroke of 
genius was including the useful tool Oleg Deripaska and his 
RusAl billions in your delegation at the last moment and 
throwing stardust in Emomali's eyes for Deripaska to "invest" in 
the Tajik Aluminum Plant (TadAZ) and the Rogun Dam.  Exactly as 
predicted, Rahmonov swallowed without chewing the absurd promise 
of a new aluminum plant in his hometown.  Of course, that 
"little consideration" we put in the Rahmonov family bank 
account in exchange for free run at TadAZ didn't hurt! 
 
Your next great landmark was that inconvenient April 2005 
meeting with Emomali Sharifovich in Sochi.  Yes, I know he 
insisted on interrupting your vacation, but you have to admit 
 
 
now it was well worth it.  He arrived blowing smoke out of his 
ears because our idiot Prosecutor General had released 
Mahmadruzi Iskandarov - the so-called "democrat" - from 
detention in Moscow and refused to extradite him.  But Rahmonov 
left all smiles the next day after you agreed we'd scoop that 
rich "chornaya jopa" Iskandarov off the streets and bundle him 
bound and gagged back to Dushanbe.  You bought great credit with 
that one, Vladimir Vladimirovich!  We should never 
under-estimate the burning desire of new wealth and power to 
eliminate the opposition. 
 
Since then, Rahmonov owes you big-time, and he's making his 
interest payments with admirable regularity.  You have to give 
him credit for how he's instituted his stealth attack on the 
American NGOs, and I predict we can count on him to 
"over-fulfill the plan."  The Americans know what's up, but 
Washington probably won't do anything while we kill them with a 
thousand small cuts. 
 
I can't take credit for any of this.  You and the boys had it 
all under control before I got here.  But I have faithfully 
instituted your orders, Vladimir Vladimirovich.  Symbols count! 
Under my amiable predecessaor, Maksim Aleksandrovich Peshkov, 
our embassy seemed fairly benign on the surface, overtly 
collegial with the few Western embassies here and pretending 
"druzhba narodov" with the Central Asians.  As you suggested, 
I've changed the tone.  No more make-nice.  No more schmoozing 
at those awful little diplomatic events.  What a coincidence 
that I'm usually "previously engaged"!  It just adds to the new 
mystique. 
 
I also have to give credit to our FSB, SVR, and GRU boys.  They 
know how to wrap up the little brothers in the Presidential 
Apparat and the Ministry of Security.  I love the way Security 
Minister Abdurahimov pisses on the Americans' shoes.  One more 
thing - keep sending your ministers here every few weeks.  The 
contrast with the West doesn't go unnoticed, I assure you. 
 
And so, allow me one more time to congratulate you, Vladimir 
Vladimirovich.  You've almost wrapped up Emomali Sharifovich, 
and we don't even have to hold our noses the way we do with that 
snake Karimov in Uzbekistan.  Well done! 
 
END TEXT. 
 
3.  (C) COMMENT:  We emphasize once again that this is an 
imagined report.  In fact, Tajikistan continues to make clear, 
and generally implements, its "open-door" multilateral foreign 
policy that seeks to balance global and regional interests and 
pressures.  That said, the creeping campaign against U.S. NGOs 
following the "color revolutions" and the marked change in tone 
at the Russian Embassy are inescapable.  END COMMENT. 
HOAGLAND 
 
 
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