US embassy cable - 05KINSHASA1893

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001893 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, KPKO, CG 
SUBJECT: IMPORTANT NEW POLITICAL COALITION BEING LAUNCHED 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Roger Meece.  Reasons 1.4 (b/d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: Three veteran political figures, National 
Assembly President Kamitatu, and former ministers Endundo and 
Pay Pay, have formed a new political coalition that will back 
Pay Pay,s candidacy for President in next year,s election. 
News of the candidacy will be broached next week through the 
newspaper "Le Soft", and about two weeks later, Kamitatu, 
Endundo, and likely others will make their support publicly 
known.  The three represent three geographic areas, Equateur, 
Bandundu, and the Kivus, and they told the Ambassador various 
deals have already been reportedly struck with others, 
including Vice President Ruberwa.  This coalition highlights 
the big existing divisions within the MLC, and could pose a 
significant threat to President Kabila,s poorly-organized 
PPRD in the elections.  Success may ride on the group,s 
ability to assemble the national organization needed for 
success in parliamentary and presidential elections.  The new 
initiative represents the first significant new political 
group in the evolving DRC political landscape as the country 
moves toward elections.  End summary. 
 
2. (C) Former minister Jose Endundo invited the Ambassador to 
lunch on November 10 at his residence, along with MLC party 
Secretary General and National Assembly President Olivier 
 
SIPDIS 
Kamitatu, and former Mobutu-era Finance Minister Pierre Pay 
Pay.  After some initial general discussion, Endundo informed 
the Ambassador that the three had formed a political 
coalition.  News would be surfaced next week of Pierre Pay 
Pay,s candidacy for the DRC presidency in next year,s 
election.  About two weeks later, Kamitatu, Endundo and 
others would publicly signal their support.  The coalition,s 
intent would be to see Pay Pay,s election to the Presidency, 
and the election of a de facto parliamentary majority 
sufficient to ensure Kamitatu,s selection as Prime Minister 
under the new Constitution.  Endundo has assumed the role of 
coalition chair, devoting full time to campaign and other 
political activities. (Comment: A parliamentary commission 
headed by Kamitatu friend Christophe Lutundula may well be 
issuing a long-awaited report within the next two weeks that 
could identify key Kabila supporters as guilty of corrupt or 
illegal behavior.  The timing of the report's release and the 
new coalition,s announcement is hardly likely to be 
coincidental.  End comment). 
 
3. (C) In subsequent discussion and in response to the 
Ambassador,s questions, the three indicated that the Pay Pay 
candidacy would be made public through the newspaper "Le 
Soft", a periodical published in Europe and controlled by 
one-time Mobutist Information Minister Kin Kiey Mulumba, who 
later became a member of the RCD, and even later took a more 
independent stance.  Endundo and Kamitatu reported that they 
have obtained the de facto support of Vice President Ruberwa. 
 Ruberwa, as RCD-Goma President, will be obliged to run 
himself for President, but with no expectation of victory. 
He will, however, reportedly in fact support the coalition,s 
activities and will be provided a meaningful role in the 
post-election government, according to the group,s scenario. 
 The three also ran through a list of other allies and 
supporters already signed on, including prominent political 
figures in a number of geographic regions.   Endundu reported 
that there are already committees at work to define 
explicitly the group,s political, economic, and social 
programs - in essence, the coalition,s political platform. 
 
4. (C) The three indicated they are not forming a new 
political party per se.  Apparently they seek to utilize a 
variety of existing political parties, many quite small, and 
draw from the ranks of the more major parties.  The 
Ambassador asked Kamitatu, for example, if he plans to run in 
the election as an MLC candidate.  While somewhat vague in 
his response, he offered that as a possibility, although he 
added, "obviously not as MLC Secretary-General." 
 
5. (C) The group clearly views Kabila as their primary rival. 
 All three explained that the presidential candidates likely 
to emerge with the highest vote totals in a first round would 
be Kabila, Tshisekedi (if he runs, which appears unlikely), 
and they believe Pay Pay with sufficient campaign preparation 
before June.  They estimate that all others, including Vice 
Presidents Bemba and Ruberwa, as likely to garner well less 
than 10 percent each.  They also estimate that Kabila has 
major organizational challenges and serious opposition, 
including in his home province of Katanga, a problem for his 
own candidacy and even more so in terms of getting supportive 
parliamentarians elected.   Interestingly, all three reported 
that Kabila had personally been in contact with them in 
recent weeks with feelers seeking to enlist them in his own 
political plans. 
 
6. (C) The three said that they are also informing the 
British, French, and Belgian Ambassadors in advance of the 
announcement.  They do not seek backing from any foreign 
government.  Endundo did indicate that they have been setting 
up a trip for Pay Pay and possibly others to travel to 
Kampala and possibly Kigali as early as next week to inform 
the Ugandan and Rwandan governments of the coalition and 
their plans. 
 
7. (C) Comment:  This is a significant new political 
development.  The three figures and their reported allies 
already reflect a broader geographic base than any of the 
standing parties can claim.  There is substantial political 
expertise in the group, and deep knowledge of the DRC and its 
complex political currents.  Putting up Pay Pay as a 
Presidential candidate has potential value as a somewhat 
older experienced figure, but one without the baggage of 
involvement in the Transition 1 4 government.  The three also 
command substantial wealth among them, and presumably can tap 
even greater financial resources from other allies.   The 
reported Ruberwa understanding with the group is entirely 
plausible, although it does not exclude the possibility that 
Ruberwa has reached a similar understanding with the Kabila 
camp. 
 
8. (C) Comment (cont): How Jean-Pierre Bemba will react to 
this coalition is an open question, and a potential problem. 
It has long been widely known that Kamitatu and Bemba have 
been at odds, but Kamitatu,s open defection could and 
probably will bring other MLC figures with him out of 
Bemba,s column.  Bemba may have relatively few political 
friends and options available to him at this point.  Also a 
key question, of course, is how Kabila and his political 
inner circle will react.  Kabila,s PPRD party hardly exists 
as an organized entity, and Kabila thus far has done little 
to address his political weaknesses.  It is a fair guess that 
this new coalition will provoke substantial alarm at the 
Presidency.  Another question is whether Pay Pay can be 
successfully promoted as a national figure with sufficient 
appeal to draw sufficient votes to be one of the top two 
Presidential candidates.  While a prominent past figure, Pay 
Pay has kept himself largely in the background during much of 
the Transition period.  Kamitatu has clearly decided that the 
time is too early for him to make a run at the Presidency 
himself.  He has been carefully establishing a strong base of 
support among current members of the Parliament, and his 
ambition to emerge as Prime Minister out of a working 
parliamentary majority is realistic.  Perhaps he is biding 
his time to position himself as a potential successor to a 
future President Pay Pay.  Or more Machievellian, he may be 
calculating that even if Pay Pay does not win, the new 
coalition could still put Kamitatu in a very strong position 
as presumptive Prime Minister and future Presidential 
candidate.  Up to now, conventional wisdom has been that 
Kabila is the likely winner of Presidential elections, in 
part by default given the weakness of the likely opponents. 
The new coalition potentially starts changing that picture. 
More developments are likely arising out of the intense 
political activity now taking place in Kinshasa.  This one is 
well worth watching, and is likely an indicator of what will 
be a very interesting political season.  It is also 
encouraging evidence of ever more members of the political 
class starting to think and plan in terms of electoral 
politics.  End comment. 
 
DOUGHERTY