US embassy cable - 02HARARE2701

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 002701 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAGR, ECON, PHUM, PGOV, ZI, Land Reform, Agriculture 
SUBJECT: LAND REFORM DECIMATES CATTLE INDUSTRIES 
 
1.  Summary.  In addition to crop farmers, cattle farmers 
have also succumbed to the pressures of the land reform 
program.  Currently, commercial dairy farmers represent half 
of the remaining commercial farmers, while most commercial 
farmers continue to raise some beef cattle in addition to 
their primary operations.  Although the number of dairy 
operators has not decreased as dramatically as the numbers in 
other farming sectors, the commercial dairy herd as well as 
the large-scale commercial beef herd have seen drastically 
reduced numbers due to widespread de-stocking in the past few 
years.  The impact of such reductions on Zimbabwe's food 
situation have already begun to be felt, in the form of 
shortages and sharp price increases, and will only worsen 
with time.  There are new indications that the GOZ may soon 
target dairy farms, which until now have been spared the 
wholesale ravages of President Mugabe's fast-track land 
reform.  End summary. 
 
Dairy 
----- 
 
2.  Both the number of commercial dairy farmers and the 
number of productive dairy cattle have diminished in the past 
few years.  The National Association of Dairy Farmers (NADF) 
states that of 437 commercial dairy farmers active in 1995, 
only around 310 commercial dairy farmers remain in operation. 
 The commercial dairy herd, which stood at 96,000 animals in 
1997, now numbers approximately 50,000 animals. 
Traditionally, over 97% of the country's milk has been 
produced by commercial farmers.  Now, production from the 
remaining dairy herd has dropped to the point that Zimbabwe 
is only producing two-thirds of its daily consumption needs, 
with widespread shortages of price-controlled milk and price 
increases in non-controlled commodities such as butter, 
cheese, and other dairy products. 
 
3.  Much of the physical reduction has seen non-productive 
cattle -- calfs, dry cows, heifers in calf, which are 
considered "followers" to a producing dairy herd -- being 
de-stocked, or sent for slaughter.  Lack of animal feed and 
grazing land have also diminished production.  Dairy cattle 
are generally given maize silage as stockfeed in order to 
maximize the production of milk.  In a country facing such 
acute shortages of maize as Zimbabwe, stockfeed is given 
little priority, and milk production has suffered. 
Commercial farmers -- even dairy farmers -- are denied the 
right to graze cattle or even to grow stockfeed maize by 
militant settlers who are claiming specific fields in the 
name of the Third Chimurenga (revolution). 
 
4.  Dairy operations are also threatened by the continued 
spread of Foot & Mouth Disease (FMD).  Due to a lack of 
forex, the GOZ -- which is the only entity entitled to import 
FMD vaccine -- has been unable to purchase vaccine against 
the disease, which can decimate dairy production in affected 
herds.  FMD outbreaks have been reported in Matabeleland, 
Masvingo, and Manicaland, all of which border on some of the 
prime dairy areas.  While cattle can recover from FMD, milk 
production in dairy cattle is destroyed if they contract the 
disease.  The NADF reports that Botswana, which has refused 
to extend further credit to the GOZ for the purchase of 
vaccine due to its multi-million dollar vaccine debt, is 
considering giving the vaccine to the GOZ simply to protect 
its own valuable herds from the threat of contagion. 
 
Milk Processors Also Feel the Strain 
------------------------------------ 
 
5.  Dairibord, the primary purchaser and processor of raw 
milk products, concurs with NADF's views.  Processors are 
currently working against a pricing conundrum which explains, 
in part, the sharp rise in non-milk dairy products:  while 
the costs of purchasing raw milk have increased from Zim $35 
to Zim $90 per liter in the past year, the controlled price 
at which they can sell a liter of pasteurized milk is Zim $78 
per liter.  In a sense, the other products -- butter, cheese 
and yoghurt -- are subsidizing the controlled cost of 
pasteurized milk.  Availability of raw milk has also had an 
impact on non-controlled prices.  Dairibord estimates that 
against national demand of 13 million liters per month, 
Zimbabwe's dairy farmers are only producing 9 million liters 
per month.  All stakeholders agree that the primary pressure 
is coming from a tangent -- there is less pressure from 
direct threat of takeover than from reduced productivity 
based on land use issues and reduced availability of 
high-quality stockfeed.  Milk processors such as Dairibord 
and Nestle' are attempting to implement mitigation measures 
to help protect production against such threats.  For 
instance, Dairibord and Nestle' are both involved in a loan 
scheme which helps subsidize the importation of stockfeed for 
dairy operators. 
 
Will the GOZ Seize White-Owned Dairy Farms? 
------------------------------------------- 
 
6.  Commercial dairy farms have so far occupied a unique 
situation vis-a-vis the land resettlement program.  President 
Mugabe has reportedly stated that dairy farms are of 
strategic importance, although nobody has been able to 
corroborate where or when such a statement was made. 
However, pursuant to this unconfirmed policy, dairy 
operations have been largely untouched by the GOZ's attempts 
to dispossess all white commercial farmers.  At this point, 
of the remaining 310 dairy farmers, as many as 187 are 
operating under Section 8 final acquisition notices, although 
the GOZ has not pursued the mass dispossession apparent in 
other sectors.  Still, due to the lack of centralized control 
over the resettlement process, some individual farmers have 
been targeted by both renegade war vet groups and 
high-profile GOZ supporters, some of whom attempt to seize 
the entire asset -- dairy operations, dairy herd, equipment, 
and all.  In one case, a farmer without a Section 8 notice 
was told by war vets on November 13 that he had 48 hours to 
vacate his dairy operation.  The farmer desperately scrambled 
to sell his productive dairy herd to other dairy farmers, 
knowing that generations of breeding would be lost if the 
cattle were simply sent to slaughter.  The farmer eventually 
learned that the farm was being claimed by Godfrey 
Chidyausiku, the GOZ-appointed Chief Justice of the Supreme 
Court.  In another high-profile case, at least two dairy 
operators in the Mazowe area -- approximately one hour 
outside of Harare -- report that Grace Mugabe, the 
President's wife, has made two or three visits to each of 
their farms.  Their impression is that Mrs. Mugabe is 
"shopping" for a farm which she will then claim.  The NADF is 
not sure if these cases imply an apparent weakening of the 
view of dairy farms as "strategic" assets, or whether they 
simply represent opportunistic responses on the part of 
acquisitive individuals with enough power to enforce their 
demands. 
 
Commercial Beef 
--------------- 
7.  Beef cattle operations have also been decimated by the 
current resettlement program.  There is less ability to 
quantify the reduction in beef cattle farmers because many 
farmers who produced other commodities would traditionally 
produce beef cattle as well.  Subsequently, there is no 
discrete number which represents the number of beef cattle 
farmers.  However, recent calculations suggest that the 
commercial breeding and beef herd has drastically decreased 
-- from 1.3 million in December 2001 to less than 250,000 
currently -- during the past year.  Many of these cattle have 
been sent to slaughter in an attempt by farmers to salvage 
some value when they were evicted from their land.  Others 
have been abandoned and targeted by rustlers who have shipped 
the cattle to Mozambique, where an active forex-base market 
in stolen cattle is reportedly thriving.  Of course such 
actions, which completely bypass any attempt at veterinary 
control, increase the potential spread of FMD.  Some of the 
cattle have simply been absorbed into the communal herd, 
which changes the availability of the animals to the 
consumption market. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
8.  While both commercial and indigenous farmers raise 
cattle, there is a radical difference in the value of such 
cattle to their owners.  Communal farmers tend to view their 
cattle as more of an asset than a commodity, and value them 
for draught power, sources of fertilizer, and symbols of 
wealth.  They are more likely to send an animal to slaughter 
to cover a specific debt or to host a specific event. 
According to one economist, commercial farmers traditionally 
sent approximately 20% of their stock annually to 
slaughter-houses, while indigenous farmers slaughtered only 
2% of their stock annually.  In recent years, even when 
cattle farmers managed to retain some of their land, they 
were still constricted by competing land use claims by 
settlers, and a much higher percentage of cattle was 
de-stocked.  Currently, when a commercial farmer is evicted, 
he faces two choices: whether to sell / abandon his cattle, 
which are then absorbed into the communal or small-scale 
herds, or whether to send his cattle to slaughter.  Although 
the communal herd is inevitably increasing due to the current 
displacement, this will not necessarily increase food 
security.  While there has been a glut of beef on the local 
market recently (most likely the result of desperate choices 
by commercial farmers), the inevitable winding down of 
commercial farmers' affairs has already had an impact on the 
availability of beef.  Recently, despite GOZ mandated price 
controls, the price of beef went up by 100%, and slaughter 
houses continue to complain that they can't buy enough cattle 
to keep up with demand. 
 
9.  The continued efforts by the GOZ to serve Section 8 
notices, as well as its apparent complicity in seizures of 
farms by high-level ZANU-PF officials, belies official claims 
that the land resettlement program is complete.  Seizure of 
the remaining commercial dairy farms could strike a lethal 
blow to the already strained dairy industry. 
SULLIVAN