US embassy cable - 05BEIRUT3658

C O N F I D E N T I A L  BEIRUT 003658 
 
 
NSC FOR ABRAMS/WERNER/DARON/SINGH 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/10/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PTER, LE, SY 
SUBJECT: MGLE01:  FURY IN BEIRUT AT BASHAR AL-ASAD'S 
NOVEMBER 10 SPEECH 
 
REF: DAMASCUS 5887 
 
Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador.  Reason:  Sections 1.4 (b) 
and (d). 
 
1.  (C)  Summary and Introduction:  The full range of 
Lebanon's political spectrum has reacted angrily to Syrian 
President Bashar al-Asad's November 10 speech at Damascus 
University.  Our contacts find the speech confrontational, 
threatening, and insulting.  Most take special note of Asad's 
description of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora as the "slave of 
his masters, who are slaves of their masters," an apparent 
reference in turn to Sa'ad Hariri, and beyond him, the U.S., 
Western partners, and even Egypt and Saudi Arabia.  The 
speech, in our view, is a further step in Syria's already 
unhelpful behavior in the region, including its stirring up 
of regional tensions and its defiance of the Mehlis 
Commission's efforts to arrive at the facts behind the 
assassination of former Lebanese PM Rafiq Hariri.  At an 
early evening Lebanese Cabinet meeting, however, the five 
Shia members of the Cabinet walked out of the meeting when PM 
Fouad Siniora raised the issue of Asad's speech.  End summary 
and introduction. 
 
"A Declaration of War" 
---------------------- 
 
2.  (C)  Bashar al-Asad's hard-line speech in Damascus has 
provoked outrage and even surprise at the latest Syrian 
tactics in Syria's response to developments in Lebanon, 
including the Mehlis Commission report and UNSCR 1636.  An 
advisor to Prime Minister Fouad Siniora told us at mid-day 
that Siniora and his staff were working on a statement in 
response to the speech.  Siniora's staff is hoping to secure 
Cabinet approval of a statement when the Cabinet convenes 
this evening.  Our MFA contact for the Americas doubted that 
Foreign Minister Fawzi Salloukh would issue any statement of 
his own, given the precedence of a Cabinet-level or Prime 
Ministerial statement. 
 
3.  (C)  Parliamentary Speaker and Amal party leader Nabih 
Berri told the Ambassador moments after seeing the speech 
that it neared a "declaration of war."  Berri was concerned 
that it could incite Palestinian violence.  A Shia 
turnaround, however, appears to have taken place during the 
day.  Minister of Telecommunications Marwan Hamade passed the 
message to us in the middle of today's Cabinet meeting, which 
began at 5:00 PM, that all five Shia members of the Cabinet 
walked out of the meeting when PM Fouad Siniora introduced on 
the agenda the subject of Asad's speech.  We believe that 
this Shia action would most likely have come at Syrian 
instruction. 
 
4.  (C)  We also spoke with the office of Nabih Berri.  His 
foreign affairs point man, Ali Hamdan, said that "it appears 
Asad is going for confrontation."  Hamdan gamely but lamely 
suggested that U.S. pressure on Syria had given Asad no 
choice but to strike back from his corner.  Druze leader 
Walid Jumblatt told us he was struck by the threats directed 
at Lebanon, as well as the disdain that Asad showed for 
Siniora and Parliamentary Majority leader Sa'ad Hariri. 
Jumblatt added that he did not think that Asad would 
cooperate with the UNSCR 1636. 
 
5.  (C)  Two former Lebanese ambassadors to the U.S. (Simon 
Karam and Abdallah Bouhabib, please protect) expressed 
concern that the Syrian regime is trying to treat Lebanon as 
a battlefield in its confrontation with the U.S.  Karam 
called Asad's speech "a declaration of war."  Bouhabib 
recalled a recent television interview by Hizballah's Sheikh 
Na'eem Qasim, who seemed to be hinting that an escalating 
Syrian campaign of destabilization was in the offing. 
 
6.  (C)  Christian MP Boutros Harb, a likely contender for 
the Lebanese Presidency, echoed concerns about 
destabilization.  He told us (with some self-interest) that 
the only way to prevent Asad from sustaining his threatening 
posture and tactics was to remove from office President Emile 
Lahoud, a Syrian ally.  Harb's fellow Bristol Group MP, 
Mosbah al-Ahdab, a Sunni from Tripoli, said that Asad had 
tried to play on the emotions of Sunni Islamists in Tripoli 
by including in his speech the words, "Tarabolus al-Sham," 
that is, using the historic place name of Tripoli as part of 
the conceptual greater Syria.  Ahdab also thought that the 
address was meant to mobilize Syrian public opinion and 
especially to rally Syrian youth.  Hariri-bloc MP Atef 
Majdalani told us that Asad is either heading toward suicide, 
or has been given assurances by someone, somewhere, that he 
will be taken care of while raising his rhetorical tone. 
 
7.  (C)  MP and An-Nahar editor in chief Gebran Tueni said 
the speech was a declaration of war against all those who are 
for democratic change in the region, including journalists 
and academics.  Tueni beleived that the Asad speech was 
prompted by an Iranian message asking him to be steadfast in 
the face of American pressure while the U.S. faces 
difficulties in Iraq and the French are busy with domestic 
problems.  A prominent lawyer in Beirut told us that Asad 
shows that he is taking the confrontation option.  He thus 
feared that some pro-Syrian groups here might engage in 
bombing operations to destabilize the situation in Lebanon. 
Another lawyer told us that the speech was full of lies, 
which the Syrian people have been conditioned to accept, but 
that no Lebanese or citizen of any modern country would be so 
naive as to take seriously. 
 
8.  (C)  Some of our contacts have compared today's speech 
with one that Asad gave before the Syrian Parliament last 
March.  They pointed out that Asad's rhetoric in March had 
likewise been confrontational toward the U.S. and threatening 
toward pro-sovereignty groups in Lebanon.  But, our contacts 
reminded us, just a month or so later the Syrians withdrew 
their military forces and overt intelligence operations from 
Lebanon.  They suggested that Asad's hostile language, in 
this case as well, may yet be followed by constructive 
actions.  Either way, one of these people said, "It's the end 
for the Asad regime.  A dirty, messy end, but an end 
nevertheless." 
 
Press Editorial Views 
--------------------- 
 
9.  (C)  Our public affairs section has spoken to several 
newspaper editorial writers.  Most agreed that Asad's speech 
is "a declaration of war against Lebanon."  One pro-Hariri 
editorialist called the speech an insult to the international 
community and a clear violation of UNSCR 1636.  He added that 
if he were in PM Siniora's place, he would complain to the UN 
Security Council because the speech "is a foundation for 
additional chaos in Lebanon, and a call for the Zarquawis to 
go ahead with terrorist operations in Lebanon."  Two 
Hizballah-oriented editorialists were less dramatic.  They 
noted that most of what Asad said could have been 
anticipated, except for the surprising escalation of rhetoric 
against the Hariri family.  They admitted, however, that the 
speech could prompt more chaos and terrorist operations in 
Lebanon.  Another editorialist suggested that Asad was 
concerned about his own Syrian Sunni Muslims, and wanted to 
highlight dangers that the Hariris represent to Syria as a 
tactic in maintaining Syrian internal unity.  Several 
editorialists commented that Asad seems to have decided to 
confront the international community via Lebanon.  They said 
they were reminded of a saying, "I am ready to sacrifice 
myself to destroy my enemies."  Their sense is that Asad no 
longer has much hope for himself and does not care about his 
future. 
 
Modest Economic Impact? 
----------------------- 
 
10.  (C)  The local economic impact of the Asad speech may be 
far lighter than the political effects.  Beirut 3657 reports 
on how the Beirut business community has taken Asad's 
comments negatively, but without special worry about these 
comments' business or financial consequences. 
 
 
FELTMAN