US embassy cable - 05WARSAW3806

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 003806 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PL, Polish Elections 
SUBJECT: POLISH PM MARCINKIEWICZ SET TO WIN CONFIDENCE VOTE 
 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: Polish Prime Minister Kazimierz 
Marcinkiewicz presented his government's program to 
parliament November 10, confident of prevailing in a vote of 
confidence later that day.  Both the populist Self-Defense 
(SO) and the right-wing League of Polish Families (LPR) 
parties have given clear signals that they will join 
Marcinkiewicz's Law and Justice (PiS) in voting in the new 
government, providing the prime minister with a comfortable 
majority.  PiS's would-be coalition partner, the centrist 
Civic Platform (PO), has declared that it will enter into 
firm opposition to the Marcinkiewicz government.  Although 
winning today's confidence vote should ensure the PiS-led 
government's position, perhaps even for the full four-year 
term of office (once installed, the government can only be 
removed with majority support for an alternative), the 
Marcinkiewicz government faces the daunting prospect of 
relying on unpredictable and demanding partners -- for each 
and every vote -- to enact its ambitious reform program. End 
summary. 
 
2. (SBU) In an hour-long address to the Polish parliament 
November 10, PM Marcinkiewicz outlined his government's 
program, which drew heavily on PiS anti-corruption, 
de-communization and pro-family themes.  Marcinkiewicz named 
five principal tasks for his administration: reform of the 
state (establishment of the "Fourth Republic"); strengthening 
Polish security; strengthening families and effective social 
policy; implementation of economic policy based on social 
"solidarity"; and the development agriculture and rural 
areas.  The Polish state is "broken," Marcinkiewicz asserted, 
and must be freed from the burden of postcommunism.  He 
pledged that his government will return the state to the 
Polish people and eliminate what he referred to as the 
"Bermuda quadrangle" of destructive relationships among 
politicians, business, secret services and organized crime. 
Marcinkiewicz called for thorough reform of administration, 
which he insisted could be made leaner, more cost-effective 
and deliver more services (including support for families, 
small businesses and farmers) simultaneously. 
 
3. (SBU) On foreign policy, Marcinkiewicz declared that 
Poland's strategic priorities and Euro-Atlantic commitments 
will not change, but that his government will work more 
effectively than its predecessors to strengthen Poland's 
position in the international arena. European integration is 
the guarantor of Polish development and prosperity, he noted, 
as Poland's alliance with the U.S. and membership in NATO 
serve as the guarantor of its security.  Poland intends to 
play an important role in ensuring the health of the 
transatlantic relationship.  Marcinkiewicz noted Poland's 
successes in Iraq and indicated that his government will 
consult with the U.S. and Iraq in the coming weeks to 
determine whether a Polish training mission will be needed. 
The prime minister pledged to promote democracy in Poland's 
eastern neighbors and to work to ensure a common EU energy 
policy that will serve Poland's interests. 
 
4. (SBU) Marcinkiewicz began his presentation fairly assured 
of a victory in the confidence vote, having secured SO and 
LPR support the previous day.  At a November 9 joint press 
appearance, SO leader Andrzej Lepper and LPR head Roman 
Giertych indicated that their parliamentary groups would 
likely vote for the government, providing PiS with a 
comfortable margin of victory even without the expected 
support of the Peasants Party (PSL). Lepper and Giertych 
indicated that they had not -- yet -- received any government 
positions for their support, but had secured a few key 
parliamentary committee chairs for their groups (including 
oversight of the special services for Giertych).  Both 
signaled that they are prepared to support the Marcinkiewicz 
government over time, but highlighted that among their 
priorities will be expanded state support for families, 
farmers, and renegotiation of the EU accession treaty. 
 
5. (U) Civic Platform leaders, meanwhile, declared that they 
would take the party into firm opposition to the PiS-led 
government and sought to dispel speculation that some PO 
members might support Marcinkiewicz.  PO leader Tusk lamented 
the "sad coalition" that PiS had effectively forged with 
Self-Defense and LPR, which he further characterized as 
anti-European and unacceptable to PO. 
 
6. (SBU) Comment: Although the new prime minister is widely 
expected to win his confidence vote late November 10, his 
government will face significant challenges without stable 
coalition partners.  The Polish Constitution's provisions 
mandating a "constructive" vote of no-confidence should 
ensure that PiS remains in control of the government, but the 
current political arrangement will require Marcinkiewicz to 
secure the support of SO and LPR for each and every vote, 
which is certain to come at a price.  Working in PiS's favor, 
however, is the recognition by those opposition parties that 
they cannot set those prices so high that the government will 
be forced to return to coalition talks with PO. 
ASHE