US embassy cable - 05THEHAGUE3064

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 003064 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2015 
TAGS: KISL, NL, PHUM, PINR, PREL, PTER, SCUL, SOCI, KPAO 
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/PARIS RIOTS:  COULD IT HAPPEN HERE? 
 
REF: A. POLITICS IN THE NETHERLANDS.11/8-9/05 
 
     B. THE HAGUE 02705 
     C. THE HAGUE 03008 
 
Classified By: CHARGE CHAT BLAKEMAN FOR REASONS 1.5 (b) and (d) 
 
 1.  (C) SUMMARY: The Dutch are concerned that riots similar 
to those in France are unlikely, but could erupt in the 
Netherlands given a dramatic trigger event, especially 
between police and Muslim youth.  Embassy contacts emphasized 
that differences between the French and Dutch immigrant 
communities and social policies make such unrest relatively 
unlikely absent provocation.  National and local governments 
are taking measures to reduce the likelihood of French-style 
riots and to end them quickly should they occur.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
2. (C) The rioting in France has forced Dutch politicians, 
community leaders, and average citizens to take a hard look 
at their own society.  The Dutch media has presented an 
extensive debate as to whether such unrest could occur in the 
Netherlands.  Local government officials, police, academics 
and Muslim community leaders generally downplay the 
likelihood of violent protests and stress the difference 
between the French and Dutch situations. 
 
3.  (C) The Dutch consider the following as major differences 
between the two countries:  there is more contact in the 
Netherlands between white Dutch and immigrants; immigrant 
housing conditions in Holland tend to be better and less 
ghettoized; and the Dutch police are perceived to be more 
community-minded and less heavy-handed with immigrants.  One 
Dutch-Moroccan youth leader, Ahmed Dadou, who lived in Paris 
for one year told emboff, "Life may be bad for Muslim youth 
in Amsterdam, but the situation is nothing like the suburbs 
of Paris.  Even kids who live in segregated, so-called bad 
neighborhoods here have encounters with the rest of society 
through school or shopping or being on the street." 
 
4.  (C)  Dutch police contacts informed RSO on November 7 
that police intelligence units have no indications that 
youths are planning disturbances in any major Dutch city, 
including Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Utrecht and The Hague, all 
considered possible "flash points" because of their sizable 
Muslim populations.  The Mayor of Rotterdam told Charge on 
November 7, for example, that he was "confident" that 
Rotterdam will remain calm, despite the widely publicized 
resignation of a right-wing council member this week for 
making anti-Muslim remarks.  As a precaution, the police have 
increased their presence in minority neighborhoods in large 
cities and have promised a quick response should violence 
erupt.  Police have also increased dialogue with community 
groups and are aware that the Muslim community may be very 
sensitive to police actions perceived to be against Islam. 
The Neighborhood Fathers, a watch group in Amsterdam, for 
example has increased its cooperation with local police and 
"guaranteed" that no riots would happen in Amsterdam. 
"Amsterdam is paradise compared to Paris," one member of the 
group told police during a recent neighborhood meeting. 
Professor Meindert Fennema at University of Amsterdam said on 
November 8 that, although notorious troublemakers could be 
provoked to follow the French example and set cars on fire, 
major riots are unlikely. 
 
5.  (C) Nearly all of our contacts acknowledged that violent 
unrest in the Netherlands, while unlikely, was a distinct 
possibility.  Violent clashes did break out between immigrant 
youth and police in Amsterdam in 1998, and although there 
were not actual riots after the murder of Pim Fortuyn and 
Theo van Gogh, van Gogh's murder did bring some civil unrest 
in the form of attacks against mosques and churches 
throughout the country.  During a meeting November 7, Jean 
Tillie, a sociologist from the University of Amsterdam, told 
emboffs that ten years ago he would have said absolutely no 
riots would occur here; now he is not so sure.  "The climate 
has changed in the Netherlands.  Youths are more 
disillusioned and radicalized that we thought." 
 
6. (C) Mohammed Assa of the Street Corner Foundation in 
Eastern Amsterdam told emboff November 7 that he would "not 
rule out" French-style riots: "Everyone talks about the riots 
and many sympathize with what is happening in Paris." 
Chatrooms catering to immigrant youth have been filled with 
discussions of the French riots and comparisons -- many 
negative -- with the situation of Muslim youths in Holland. 
Dadou noted that the French government has so far been 
careful not to emphasize the role of religion among the 
rioters; if this were to change, he added, Dutch Muslim youth 
might feel increased solidarity with their French 
counterparts and could be more inclined to take to the 
streets in sympathy. 
7. (C) Moustapha Baba, a prominent Dutch-Moroccan businessman 
and community leader in Amsterdam, told emboff November 9 
that feelings are tense in the Netherlands and riots could 
result if there were a trigger event.  "If the police threw a 
grenade into a mosque, I think youngsters would explode," 
said Abdel Bouali a youth worker in the Amsterdam 
Neighborhood of Osdorp.  Such trigger events are difficult to 
predict.  In 1998, for example, long-standing tensions 
between Moroccan youth and police erupted into violence after 
a relatively minor altercation between a policeman and a 
Moroccan boy and his father.  Noting that riots were always 
possible, Amsterdam West police youth coordinator Ton Smakman 
told emboff November 8 his greatest fear was that, "One 
stupid guy may see on television what is going on in France 
and decide to do something like that here." 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
8.  (C) In the past year, the GONL has twice braced for riots 
that did not occur: once after the murder of Theo van Gogh in 
November 2004, and once after a white Dutch woman ran over 
and killed a Moroccan youth attempting to steal her purse in 
January 2005.  In both instances, community leaders and 
government officials combined calls for restraint with quick 
action to identify and punish perpetrators of racist violence 
on both sides.  Behind the quick responses, however, was a 
palpable fear that such incidents could easily spin out of 
control -- and that Dutch society is ill-prepared to deal 
with serious unrest among its large and disaffected immigrant 
youth population.  This realization is fueling a growing 
debate in the media and political circles here on what can be 
done to make French-style riots not only unlikely, but 
unthinkable.  END COMMENT. 
BLAKEMAN