US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN1993

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001993 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/ACE, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, AM 
SUBJECT: PUBLICITY AND CASH PUSH FOR A "YES" VOTE IN 
REFERENDUM RUN-UP 
 
Classified By: Ambassador J.M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) While politicians on both sides of the issue are busy 
trading political capital over the issue of proposed 
constitutional amendments, pro-government forces are spending 
hefty amounts of hard cash in a nationwide publicity campaign 
aimed to get out the "yes" vote.  Post views the "Yes" media 
blitz as the most extensive political information campaign 
since the country's parliamentary elections in 2003.  The 
GOAM reports only a modest operating budget for the 
coordination of its "Ayo" (Armenian for "Yes") campaign and 
claims that independent, grassroots NGOs are responsible for 
most of the major advertising and informational meetings 
being held around the country.  Contacts both in and out of 
the government claim, however, that big business close to 
President Kocharian is footing the bill for the majority of 
the campaign.  It is likely that big businesses' financial 
backing of the campaign is their support for what some in the 
opposition want to portray as a vote of confidence on the 
current administration.  Opposition groups meanwhile continue 
to urge their supporters to stay away from the polls or vote 
against the referendum on November 27.  An opposition convoy 
is wending its way across Armenia, leaving anti-Kocharian 
rhetoric, and questions about the cohesive approach of the 
opposition, in its wake.  End summary. 
 
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EVERYTHING'S COMING-UP "AYO" AROUND YEREVAN 
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2. (SBU) President Robert Kocharian's November 3 meeting with 
university students was the official kick-off for the GOAM's 
campaign in support of the November 27 constitutional 
referendum.  Political parties, pro-government NGOs and the 
GOAM's constitutional reform coordination council are 
sponsoring a nationwide publicity campaign ostensibly aimed 
at "informing citizens about the constitution," though it is 
clearly more geared toward getting out the "yes" vote.  The 
GOAM has already begun printing and distributing more than 
one million copies of the draft constitutional amendments 
package and an accompanying explanation of its implications. 
Dozens of colorful billboards and posters have sprung up in 
Yerevan and surrounding towns urging citizens to "vote 'Yes' 
toward the future."  Sophisticated television and radio 
advertisements with similar messages run on almost all media 
outlets.  One NGO has established a "Vote Yes" toll-free 
information hotline, website and "information center" in one 
of Yerevan's busiest shopping districts.  The "Yes" media 
blitz is the most extensive political information campaign 
since the country's parliamentary elections in 2003.  (Note: 
The high number of new outdoor advertising spaces in Yerevan 
-- which environmental and diaspora groups have criticized 
heavily over the past 36 months -- is partly to thank for the 
campaign's perceived effectiveness around Armenia's capital 
city.  One advertising company recently told us that there 
are now three times the number of available billboards in 
Yerevan compared to those that were available during the last 
two nationwide elections in 2002 and 2003.  End Note.) 
 
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FRIENDS WITH DEEP POCKETS RUMORED TO BE FOOTING THE BILL 
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3. (C) The GOAM's official constitutional reform coordination 
council, chaired by Orinats-Yerkir MP Mher Shaghdelian, is a 
loosely-managed clearing house for information and programs 
related to the November 27 vote.  We met recently with 
Shaghdelian to discuss the operations of the council and were 
surprised to hear him disavow rumors of a hefty operating 
budget or a clearly defined media strategy.  Shaghdelian said 
that an alliance of 24 political parties meets regularly to 
update each other on their individual efforts, but that each 
party was mobilizing its constituents with minimal influence 
from him or the council.  According to Shaghdelian, 
legislation limits party spending for referenda to USD 23,000 
per party, per referendum.  Armenia's Central Bank told us 
that only six political parties, including the three parties 
of the governing coalition, have registered such accounts for 
the November 27 election. 
 
4. (C) Shaghdelian admitted, however, that the impressive 
"Ayo" campaign was backed by a small number of NGOs such as 
the Nig-Aparan Compatriot Union (led by the Prosecutor 
General), a coalition of student unions (supported by the 
Ministries of Education and Culture) and other groups who 
appeared on Armenia's already dense NGO scene within the past 
month.  Local employees from USG assistance implementing 
partners (including Catholic Relief Services and Junior 
Achievement-Armenia) have told Post that local oligarchs are 
funding these organizations through off-the-books 
contributions.  Larisa Minasyan, Chief of Party of the Open 
Society Institute, claims that President Kocharian summoned 
his closest contributors in mid-October to "inspire their 
generosity" during the campaign as a symbol of support for 
the administration.  National Assembly advisor Paryur 
Santrosyan suggested to us that Kocharian's friends were 
"taking a big part of the financial burden" for the campaign. 
 Working-level contacts at the Ministry of Finance and 
Economy, American University of Armenia and National Assembly 
have made similar reports.  (Note:  Local newspapers, 
normally eager to echo rumors of this kind, have been mostly 
silent about murmurings of local oligarchs' involvement in 
financing the campaign.  End Note.) 
 
5. (C) In a November 10 conversation with the Ambassador, 
Justice Minister David Harutunian was more pessimistic about 
the "yes" effort.  He lamented the absence of a high-level 
debate on the substance of the issue.  He said he thought too 
much TV air time was spent on large, showy meetings where the 
issue took a back seat to their presentations. 
 
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OPPOSITION STRIKES "YES" FROM ITS VOCABULARY 
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6. (C) Opposition leaders are working hard to counter the 
"yes" rhetoric with a campaign to thwart the November 27 
referendum.  Leaders of the opposition Justice Bloc have 
taken their message to rural Armenia by way of a motorcade 
that, according to opposition press reports, has grown to 
include more than 100 automobiles.  During their stops in 
towns and villages, opposition leaders are urging supporters 
to use the referendum as their best chance to force Kocharian 
from power.  Despite their concerted effort to protest around 
the country, the opposition has not yet announced a unified 
policy on how their supporters should act on November 27. 
Stepan Demirchian's People's Party and the National 
Democratic Union are calling for supporters to stay away from 
polls on November 27.  A group of 17 smaller opposition 
parties (including the Republic Party) are asking their 
members to abstain, spoil their ballots by writing 
anti-Kocharian message on them or vote "no" at the polls. 
Some opposition leaders, including Republic Party leader Aram 
Sargsian, have even called for supporters to gather in 
Yerevan on the day of the election to protest the Kocharian 
administration.  It is not apparent that the opposition 
parties have organized a nationwide advertising campaign 
against the referendum.  Sargsian claimed that television 
stations are refusing to air advertisements against the 
referendum but would not name the television stations and has 
since backed away from this claim.  In a creative twist, 
opposition leaders this week urged their supporters not to 
use the word "yes" in their conversation or speeches in the 
period leading up to the November 27 election.  Opposition 
leader Hovannes Hovannisyan told us that the strategy is both 
a form of protest and protection against being "improperly 
quoted by the pro-Kocharian media." 
 
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COMMENT:  IF MONEY TALKS, MAYBE "YES" REALLY MEANS "YES" 
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7. (C) The GOAM and pro-government forces are investing a lot 
to get out the "yes" vote on November 27.  This campaign 
appears to be more than just a nominal effort aimed at 
countering OSCE/ODIHR criticism of Kocharian's administration 
during the failed 2003 referendum.  On the political front, 
Kocharian has linked all parts of the governing coalition to 
the November 27 vote.  By assigning NA Speaker Baghdasaryan's 
close ally, Shaghdelian, to run the coordination council, he 
has forced the National Assembly to take a strong stance on 
the issue.  The presence of all coalition parties on the 
council (including the ARF-Dashnaksutyun party which has been 
otherwise reluctant to link themselves to the referendum) 
means that everyone's political reputation -- not just 
Kocharian's -- is now at stake on November 27.  Most telling, 
however, is the amount of money that someone (we believe 
local big business) is pumping into the public relations 
campaign.  While it isn't an indication of their total 
commitment to democratic governance, the expenditures suggest 
that pro-government forces indeed want this package of 
amendments to succeed badly enough to cash in favors from 
their political cash cows to move it ahead. 
EVANS