US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4553

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004553 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/10/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION SCENE SETTER: HSINCHU CITY AND 
HSINCHU COUNTY, KMT STRONGHOLDS 
 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas H. Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (U) Summary: The Kuomintang (KMT) candidates for Hsinchu 
City Mayor and Hsinchu County Magistrate, both of whom are 
incumbents, lead their Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) 
challengers by wide margins.  The election atmosphere in 
Hsinchu City is not very competitive or intense, and the KMT 
should have an easy victory.  The KMT is well organized in 
heavily Hakka and traditionally pro-Blue Hsinchu County, 
where it is playing up the theme of DPP corruption and 
expects a relatively easy victory.  End Summary. 
 
Hsinchu City: KMT Confident of Retaining Power 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
2. (C) KMT Hsinchu City Chairman Chang Yi-hua told AIT that 
the population mix in Hsinchu City is approximately 60 
percent Taiwanese, 20 percent Hakka and 20 percent Mainlander 
and that Pan-Blue supporters outnumber Pan-Green supporters 
by approximately three to two, giving the KMT a built-in 
advantage.  Chang attributed Mayor Lin's high poll ratings to 
several factors: Hsinchu's strong economy, his achievements, 
especially road and park construction; his keeping in touch 
with people by attending local weddings and funerals; and 
welfare policies that benefit retirees and families who have 
children.  Noting that KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou inaugurated 
Lin's campaign headquarters on October 29, Chang said that 
they have suggested to Ma that he will not need to do any 
more campaigning in Hsinchu City because Mayor Lin enjoys a 
stable lead.  Chang predicted that voter turnout will be 
about 65 percent. 
 
3. (C) Chairman Chang told AIT that the DPP chose not to run 
its strongest candidate, Hsinchu City DPP Chairman Cheng 
Hung-hui, because a likely election loss would prevent Cheng 
from running for office for the next four years, according to 
DPP regulations.  According to a mid-October public opinion 
poll from the generally respected but Blue-leaning ERA 
organization, Mayor Lin has a 35 percentage point lead over 
Cheng Kuei-yuan.  Despite Lin's lead and popularity, Chang, 
however, was cautious in predicting who would win the 
election because of the possibility of last-minute DPP 
"tricks". 
 
4. (C) DPP Hsinchu City Chairman Cheng Hung-hui told AIT that 
the 35-point polling gap probably exaggerates the actual 
margin between the two candidates and added that the DPP 
often increases its support as the election draws near.  As a 
City Council Member representing just one district in the 
city, DPP candidate Cheng Kuei-yuan suffers from a lack of 
name recognition, Cheng Hung-hui noted.  The strongest 
candidates for mayor or magistrate are usually legislators or 
at least council speakers who enjoy wide recognition.  Cheng 
added that people support candidates because they know them, 
not because of their party affiliation.  Cheng told AIT that 
the DPP plans to attack Mayor Lin for waste and running a 
deficit and to stress the DPP's own programs, which include 
putting the railway underground and building a second 
industrial science park. 
 
Hsinchu County: Even More KMT Confidence 
---------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) KMT Hsinchu County Chairman Lee Cheng-wen noted that 
Hsinchu County has the highest proportion of traditionally 
pro-Blue Hakka residents in Taiwan, 81 percent, adding that 
the KMT has a strong organizational base in the country. 
According to Lee, Hsinchu County's Hakkas prefer stability 
and do not favor Taiwan independence or the DPP.  Lee 
attributed Magistrate Cheng's popularity to Hsinchu County's 
strong economy, as well as his congenial personality, 
realism, welfare policy of pension subsidies for the elderly 
and free school lunches for children. 
 
6. (C) Lee remarked that Ma Ying-jeou's clean image has 
benefitted the KMT and predicted this will influence the 
swing vote.  In light of recent DPP scandals, Lee said, the 
KMT's strategy will be to emphasize DPP corruption in its 
campaign message.  He criticized DPP candidate Lin Kuang-hua, 
who was magistrate from 1997-2001, as arrogant, unrealistic, 
and for putting the county in debt.  Lee told AIT that Cheng 
has a better record regarding the cost-effectiveness of major 
projects. 
 
7. (C) Lin Yu-ting, son of Hsinchu County DPP candidate Lin, 
told AIT that in Hsinchu County 40 percent of voters support 
the KMT, 25 percent the DPP and 35 percent of voters are 
uncommitted.  Lin acknowledged that the DPP's scandals have 
complicated his father's campaign and said his father will 
emphasize his personal characteristics rather than his party 
affiliation.  Lin suggested that incumbent Magistrate Cheng 
has corruption problems, which will come to light during the 
campaign.  He also claimed that local reporters are being 
bribed, which explains why there are no negative stories 
about incumbent Magistrate Cheng.  Lin lamented the power of 
personality and how unfair it is that President Chen's own 
problems have tainted the entire DPP while the entire KMT is 
now suddenly "clean" because of Ma Ying-Jeou's positive image. 
 
8. (C) Lin stated that a false corruption allegation and more 
generous welfare promises by the KMT derailed his father's 
campaign during the last election.  This year, Lin's father 
is upping the ante, promising voters a still higher pension 
for the elderly and two free meals (breakfast in addition to 
lunch) for school children. 
 
 
 
Paal