US embassy cable - 05CAIRO8556

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 008556 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
NSC STAFF FOR SINGH 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, EG, Parliamentary Elections 
SUBJECT: EGYPT'S PEOPLE'S ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS: INITIAL 
RESULTS FROM ROUND ONE 
 
REF: A. CAIRO 8555 
     B. CAIRO 8554 
     C. CAIRO 8546 
     D. CAIRO 8501 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified.  Please protect accordingly. 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: As of midday on November 10, the 
Parliamentary Elections Commission issued results for 43 of 
88 districts competed in the first round of People's Assembly 
elections.  As anticipated, many races have gone to a runoff 
stage, which will take place on November 15.  There have been 
decisive results in a number of other significant races.  In 
one result that will be controversial, leading opposition 
figure Ayman Nour lost his seat to a retired State Security 
Colonel.  End summary. 
 
2. (SBU) Although results, and rumors of results, began to 
spread around Cairo overnight, it was not until around 0730 
local Cairo time that Judge Intisar Nessim of the 
Parliamentary Elections Commission went on State TV to convey 
official results for 43 of the 88 constituencies competed 
yesterday.  (There are a total of 222 constituencies - the 
remainder will be competed in a second stage on November 20 
and a third stage on December 1.) 
 
3. (SBU) A senior aide to Gamal Mubarak contacted ECPO 
Counselor late on the evening of November 9 to provide the 
NDP's spin on the elections, which he described as very 
successful. He accurately forecast a number of the results. 
 
4. (SBU) A number of key ruling NDP figures were victorious 
in the first round.  These included: 
 
-- Minister of PA Affairs Kamal el-Shazly. 
 
-- Minister of Housing Ibrahim Soliman. 
 
-- Mubarak's Chief of Staff, Zakaria Azmy. 
 
-- PA Speaker Fathy Surour. 
 
5. (SBU) In the closely-watched race for one of two seats at 
stake in Central Cairo's Qasr al-Nil district, Gamal Mubarak 
associate Hossam Badrawy will face a runoff against Hisham 
Mostafa Khalil. 
 
6. (SBU) Opposition party candidates running under the 
"National Front for Change" banner appear to have fared 
poorly.   Mounir Abdel Nour, the prominent Coptic businessman 
and leader of the Wafd party's modest bloc in the PA lost his 
seat in Cairo's Waily district to NDP candidate Shireen Abdel 
Aziz. 
 
7. (SBU) In perhaps the most tense race of the round, the 
embattled Ghad Party leader Ayman Nour, who placed second to 
Mubarak in the September presidential election, was defeated 
by Yahya Wahdani, a retired Colonel in the State Security 
service.  Nour and his supporters have alleged credibly that 
Wahdani benefited from the overt and active support of local 
security authorities, including direct threats and 
intimidation of key community leaders and prominent Nour 
supporters. 
 
8. (SBU) The scene in Nour's Bab al-Shariya district, visited 
by emboff on November 9, foretold the result.  Wahdani's 
campaign had saturated the area with banners, loudspeaker 
trucks, and thuggish-looking young supporters.  The 
relatively few Nour supporters who ventured onto the streets 
were drowned out.  Ghad Party sources alleged that Nour's 
wife Gameela Ismail was roughed up by police in the district 
on November 9, but have offered few details, and we have not 
been able to reach her for comment.  Nour and supporters will 
almost certainly contest the result in court, but this will 
be an uphill battle. 
 
9. (SBU) The Muslim Brotherhood's full court press in this 
year's PA elections appears to be yielding results: 
 
-- MB candidate Hazem Abou Ismail defeated NDP fixture Amal 
Osman, Deputy PA speaker and one of only six female 
candidates the ruling party is fielding this fall. 
 
-- In the eastern suburb of Nasr City, independent MB 
candidate Essam Mokhtar handed a defeat to another of the 
NDP's six female candidates, Thoraya Labena. 
 
-- In Helwan, prominent MB figure Ali Fateh al-Bab defeated 
NDP candidate Mohamed Mostafa. 
 
-- The MB's only female candidate, Makaram al-Derry, who 
attracted international media attention for her vocal 
rejection of feminism, will go to a runoff against the 
favorite, NDP candidate Mustafa Salab. 
 
-- MB candidates will also move to runoffs on Tuesday in at 
least five more constituencies. 
 
10. (SBU) Comment: The timely issuance of results was a test 
for the newly formed Parliamentary Elections Commission, 
which was only legislated into existence in the spring. 
(Previously, the Ministry of Interior was responsible for 
administering the elections and tabulating results.) The 
unprecedented participation of domestic monitors, who were 
out in all constituencies and who have already begun to 
comment on the conduct of the polls (ref A), will provide 
more details and commentary on the counting process.  End 
comment. 
 
 
RICCIARDONE