US embassy cable - 05RANGOON1281

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 001281 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2015 
TAGS: ECON, SENV, PGOV, PHUM, PREL, PINS, BM, Ethnics, Economy 
SUBJECT: BURMA'S KACHIN STATE: RESOURCES CAN'T BUY PEACE 
 
REF: RANGOON 1256 
 
Classified By: Consular Officer Walter Parrs for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  An uneasy peace presides over remote Kachin 
State in Burma's extreme north, a region long associated with 
conflict.  On a recent trip, Emboff learned that local 
democracy activists are active, though severely hampered by 
GOB harassment; natural resources remain abundant, but poor 
extraction techniques have negative economic and 
environmental repercussions; and development cooperation 
between the region's most significant cease-fire group and 
the Burmese regime has had some results.  The Kachin, 
equipped with a high degree of self-reliance and natural 
resources, aim to preserve their limited autonomy.  The 
regime, however, is keen to exert full central control over 
the region.  Conflict, it would seem, is far from over.  End 
Summary. 
 
KACHIN PRO-DEMOCRACY MOVEMENT: BELEAGUERED, BUT ACTIVE 
 
2.  (C) During an October trip to Kachin State (reftel), 
Emboff met in the state capital of Myitkyina with regional 
National League for Democracy (NLD) officials, including 
Chairman U La Sein; Secretary U Ne Win; and State Organizer U 
Aung Soe.  U La Sein explained that, despite continued GOB 
harassment and surveillance, the regional NLD continues to 
convene, though on an irregular basis.  Party events are 
closely monitored.  The NLD leaders described as their "most 
brazen activity" the regular application for official GOB 
permission to participate in NLD national celebrations and 
anniversaries.  Regional military leaders routinely deny the 
requests, but U La Sein said defiantly that the NLD will 
continue to make the requests in the future, despite the 
undesirable attention that such actions draw. 
 
3.  (C) Of the 300 plus NLD party members in Kachin State, U 
La Sein estimates that no more than 70 are still active. 
Most have succumbed to GOB pressure to cease their 
association with the party and those who remain active are 
scattered around the state with little ability to communicate 
with each other.  The GOB now employs indirect harassment, 
working through the Union Solidarity and Development 
Association (USDA), various women's associations, and other 
government-controlled groups to isolate NLD members as 
pariahs.  The technique appears to be working; NLD party 
members say they are unable to have substantive contact with 
the local population. 
 
4.  (SBU) In July, according to the Kachin NLD leaders, 47 
party members remained in detention as political prisoners. 
As a result of subsequent releases, however, only four 
members are currently behind bars:  Nyunt Hlaing, Dr. Zaw 
Myint Maung, U Kyi Lin, and Myo Aung Than. 
 
RESOURCE RICH, BUT PEOPLE STILL POOR 
 
5.  (U) Timber, jade, and gold extraction dominates the 
Kachin State economy, and local sentiment on all three 
resources is decidedly blue.  Jade is still abundant, but 
industrial practices have evolved to exclude local Kachin 
labor.  Large corporations, such as Jade Land, have imported 
heavy machinery, eliminating the need for substantial manual 
labor.  The ensuing unemployment has had a significant 
negative impact on the local economy.  The GOB controls jade 
mining permits, and opportunities for new jade ventures are 
not accessible to the average miner. 
 
6.  (U) While jade is still abundant, the Kachin believe that 
most gold has already been mined.  Jade comes from the 
mountains, but gold is dredged from rivers using specially 
designed trawlers.  Those trawlers, operating side by side 
across a river, have raked and re-raked the same riverbeds so 
yields have declined markedly.  Nonetheless, panning for gold 
is accessible to anyone, so sifting silt remains a common way 
to eke out a living.  Over-harvesting of timber is a similar 
story.  Despite GOB efforts to tighten control over the 
industry, Chinese demand for raw timber has led to 
environmental degradation, and created opportunities for 
opium poppy cultivators to take-over cleared land (reftel). 
 
POST-CONFLICT DEVELOPMENT 
 
7.  (SBU) The Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), the 
region's most significant armed ethnic group, has gradually 
increased efforts to coordinate development initiatives with 
the GOB since establishing a cease-fire agreement in 1994. 
Under current arrangements, KIO sources told Emboff, the KIO 
provides funding for development projects in return for 
timber concessions.  The most visible development project is 
the construction of a new road leading north from Myitkyina 
to the Irrawaddy confluence.  The KIO contracted a Chinese 
construction company for the project because of the low 
quality of local companies. 
 
8. (SBU) The KIO and the GOB also cooperate on building new 
bridges.  The KIO, for example, recently completed all 
bridges under 100 ft. long in an area surrounding a hydro 
power investment, while the GOB will complete the longer 
bridges.  The KIO and Jade Land are sponsoring the 
hydroelectric project, which consists of two power plants. 
KIO officials claimed the first plant will be completed by 
year's end; however, many previous deadlines have passed and 
few observers supported the KIO claim.  The plants, if 
completed, will power Myitkyina, Bamo, and some surrounding 
towns, leaving areas controlled by the NDA-K, a smaller 
Kachin cease-fire group, in the dark and reliant on 
electricity imports from China (reftel). 
 
NEW SHERIFF IN TOWN 
 
9.  (SBU) In September the Burmese regime posted a new head 
of the Northern Command to Myitkyina.  Major General Ohn 
Myint immediately set out to clean the streets of trash and 
to re-pave roads.  He reportedly ordered the removal of 
arbitrary checkpoints throughout the state and declared a ban 
on illegal timbering (with draconian punishments for 
transgressors).  Overall, the Kachin appear to be pleasantly 
surprised with the activist regional commander, but hold 
guarded expectations.  Maj Gen Ohn Myint is often quoted 
around town for proclaiming himself a heavy drinker and a 
hard worker, and jokes are made at the expense of the local 
civil service for being unable to keep pace with him. 
 
DENGUE OUTBREAK 
 
10. (SBU) According to local sources, including NGO workers, 
a dengue fever outbreak in Kachin State has claimed 18 lives 
for the year as of September, among more than 600 reported 
cases.  In a rare occurrence, the state Department of Health 
released data on the outbreak to UNICEF, including numbers of 
cases. 
 
COMMENT: A RECIPE FOR RENEWED CONFLICT? 
 
11. (SBU) An uneasy peace presides over Kachin State, a 
region long associated with conflict.  With barely a pause 
after the bloody WWII campaign to end Japanese occupation, 
much of it fought in Kachin State, civil war broke out in the 
region immediately after independence in 1948.  The Kachin 
have sought autonomy ever since.  Although the regime secured 
a series of cease-fire agreements in the late 1980s and early 
1990s, ending major armed conflict, tensions and rivalries 
steadily simmer among the diverse ethnic populations of 
Kachin State. 
 
12. (SBU) Kachin State is not unique.  Most other ethnic 
minority regions face daunting post-conflict development 
challenges, if not outright neglect by the central 
government.  Kachin State, however, has several advantages. 
Despite inefficient extraction, the state has significant 
resource-based economic potential.  The region is also well 
known for its self-reliance, a trait, many locals say, 
inherited from American Baptist missionaries before they were 
expelled from Burma in the 1960s.  Equipped with their 
self-reliance and natural resources, and determined to 
preserve their limited autonomy, the Kachin ethnic groups 
confront a regime equally determined to exert full central 
control over the region.  Conflict, it would seem, is far 
from over.  End Comment. 
VILLAROSA