US embassy cable - 05CAIRO8555

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 008555 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC STAFF FOR SINGH 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, EG, Parliamentary Elections 
SUBJECT: EGYPT'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS: ASSESSING DAY ONE 
 
REF: A. CAIRO 8554 
     B. CAIRO 8546 
     C. CAIRO 8501 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified by DCM Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) Egypt's People's Assembly elections kicked off on 
November 9.  For the first time in Egypt's long history of 
legislative elections, domestic civil society monitors played 
a prominent role in the proceedings.  The unprecedented 
numbers of civil society monitors have also begun to yield a 
very detailed catalogue of irregularities and violations, 
many of which were also observed by Emboffs in the field on 
November 9.  While there appear to have been a number of 
instances of violence and intimidation, we are not aware of 
any fatalities or serious injuries, although there are 
reports that three youths working for an opposition candidate 
campaign are missing in the Nile Delta province of Manoufiya. 
 Emboffs in the field were also struck by the predominance 
and organization of the (nominally independent) candidates 
affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), reinforcing the 
group's reputation as the most disciplined and best organized 
opposition force in the country.  While today's process was 
anything but tidy, the strong role played by monitors, and 
the lower level of violence, establishes these elections, so 
far, as significantly improved over the 2000 People's 
Assembly elections.  Results from today's elections may be 
revealed as early as midday Thursday, November 10, Cairo 
time.  Many of today's races will likely generate runoffs. 
End summary. 
 
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Civil Society Cataloguing Violations 
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2. (SBU) The main story of the day was the prominent role 
played by domestic election monitors.   Independent Coalition 
for Election Monitoring (ICEM, the coalition headed by Saad 
Eddin Ibrahim's Ibn Khaldun Center, IKC) issued its first 
press release at around noon local time.  ICEM said that it 
had over 1500 observers in the field for the November 9 poll, 
responsible for 10,644 ballot stations.  Other domestic 
monitoring groups fielded at least 1000 more workers. 
 
3. (SBU) ICEM lauded the initial cooperation of the security 
services in ensuring the safety of observers, and praised the 
GOE for ensuring public accessibility to clearly marked 
ballot stations, but also called attention to a number of 
shortcomings and violations in the process.  Other observers 
with whom we have spoken have echoed the concerns cited by 
ICEM. 
 
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Domestic Monitors' Access: Read the Fine Print 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
4. (C) ICEM and other organizations criticized the Ministry 
of Justice's decision late on November 8 to allow only those 
civil society organizations that are legally registered NGOs 
with the Ministry of Social Affairs to have access to the 
polling stations.  ICEM is organized under the umbrella of 
the Ibn Khaldoun Center which is not registered as an NGO. 
Even registered NGOs, like the Egyptian Association for 
Supporting Democracy (EASD), asserted that, in numerous 
cases, electoral authorities did not allow its monitors to 
enter polling stations. 
 
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Voter Lists 
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5. (C) As widely anticipated, inaccuracies with the voter 
lists in most constituencies appeared to be the most 
pervasive problem.  ICEM cited numerous irregularities in 
voter lists in various constituencies in several provinces. 
Embassy contact Hisham Kassem (protect), publisher of the 
leading Egyptian daily Al-Masry Al-Youm, Vice President of 
the Ghad Party, and President of the Egyptian Organization 
for Human Rights, told us "the big disaster was the voter 
lists, which the government made no effort to fix." 
(Comment: Although there were reports in the last week that 
voter lists in various districts had been purged of tens of 
thousands of bad entries, it is clear that they remain 
flawed.  These flaws include missing voter names, duplicate 
names, misspelled names, misfiled names, and names of the 
deceased.  The GOE insists that the lists are flawed in part 
because citizens do not exercise their right to correct 
mistakes and that it is working toward a comprehensive 
solution in the coming years.  End comment.) 
 
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Violence and Intimidation 
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6. (C) ICEM reported that in Bagour, Manofiya, three 
candidate representatives working for Wafdist Muhammed Kamal, 
an opponent of veteran NDP MP Kamal El-Shazli, are missing. 
In a late afternoon phone call with poloff, a senior ICEM 
coordinator also alleged that Ayman Nour's wife, Gamila 
Ismail, had been assaulted in Bab Shareya, but she was unable 
to provide additional details or corroboration. (Poloff also 
attempted to confirm this story directly Ismail, but was 
unable to reach her.)  She also noted instances of violence, 
some involving gunfire, in parts of Cairo, Giza, Minya, 
Assiut, and Sohag. 
 
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Vote Buying and Fraud 
---------------------- 
 
7. (C) Hisham Kassem told us that his paper (the prestigious 
daily Al-Masry Al-Youm) would be documenting on the morning 
of November 10 various instances in which ruling NDP 
candidates bought votes.  Kassem said that one of his 
reporters returning from the Sayida Zeinab district of Cairo 
had been "devastated" by the blatant vote selling that he 
witnessed. 
 
8. (C) In the Manial district of Cairo, political LES 
witnessed supporters of Ms. Shahinaz Al-Naggar, an NDP-linked 
"independent," paying female voters to vote for Naggar. 
According to our LES colleague, voters received between 20 
and 100 pounds for the votes, depending on the amount of 
resistance that they initially presented to Naggar's 
supporters. 
 
9. (C) Hisham Kassem also asserted that a judge at a polling 
station in Giza, where NDP tycoon Mohammad Aboulenein is 
running, had arrested NDP activists whom he caught red-handed 
in tampering with a ballot box, but the police later released 
the accused in response to a request from the NDP.  For its 
part, ICEM monitors noted that in Beni Suef and parts of 
Cairo, witnesses reported that ballots for had been 
circulated in advance and marked for NDP candidates. 
 
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Other Violations 
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10. (SBU) The EASD, in a mid-afternoon press release, alleged 
that in "several cases" polling places were located in police 
stations, in violation of stated policy.  (Emboff noted one 
such site in the eastern Cairo suburb of Nasr City.) 
 
11. (C) ICEM noted that most ballot stations continue to 
display a profusion of campaign posters and other materials. 
Depending on the efforts of competing candidates, some 
polling stations have been festooned with signs from multiple 
candidates, while others have been dominated by single 
candidates.  ICEM also claimed that 45 percent of the polling 
stations it was monitoring had not yet opened by mid-morning. 
 
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MB Out in Force 
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12. (C) It has long been a truism of Egyptian politics that 
the outlawed but tolerated Muslim Brotherhood is the best 
organized, disciplined, and efficient force on the political 
stage.  This truism was largely borne out by the observations 
of emboffs who took to the field on November 9.  In Giza, 
various districts of Cairo, the Nile Delta province of 
Manoufiya, and the Upper Egypt provinces of Minya and Beni 
Suef, MB activists were out in force, often with banners, 
posters, and flyers featuring relatively slick graphics.  MB 
activists, in many cases under the auspices of the "Sawasiya 
Human Rights Center" - an MB initiative launched in 2004, 
took on the guise of "independent" monitors at the majority 
of polling stations we visited.  In at least one case, these 
MB activists even supplied a North Cairo polling station with 
ink. 
 
13. (C) Embassy contacts speculate that the MB's last minute 
withdrawal of 8 candidates from the November 9 polls (out of 
a total of 150 candidates in all three stages), was the 
result of an internal tactical decision by the group.  Those 
candidates that withdrew, our contacts believe, were unlikely 
to win in their districts, and the MB was seeking to minimize 
the number of its candidates who will fall into the "losers" 
column. 
 
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Comment 
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14. (C) Today's process was not tidy, as confirmed by the 
observations of Emboffs, who were out visiting polling sites 
all day in five governorates.  More importantly, however, 
domestic election observers were out in unprecedented numbers 
(at least 2500) and with unprecedented (if imperfect) access. 
 In 2000, by contrast, only a few hundred monitors braved the 
obstacles thrown up by the GOE and the ruling NDP, against 
the backdrop of the arrest and looming prosecution of 
activist Saad Eddin Ibrahim, the godfather of election 
monitoring in Egypt.  Violence and intimidation were factors 
today, but appears markedly less than it was in 2000, when 
five people died in election-related violence in the Cairo 
round alone.  Also in contrast to 2000, we received no 
reports today of security force intervention to block access 
to polling stations. 
 
15. (C) It is too soon to assess the extent of fraud and 
manipulation in today's process.  This picture will become 
clearer as we assess the results of today's voting, which may 
be released as soon as midday Thursday, local Cairo time.  It 
is worth remembering that today's vote will be followed by 
runoffs on November 15, and second and third rounds of 
voting, with runoffs, later in November and in early 
December.  (In 2000, almost half of the races went to the 
runoff stage.)  Further races, particularly competitive 
contests in the Delta, could prove uglier than what we saw 
today.  End comment. 
 
 
RICCIARDONE