US embassy cable - 05AMMAN8823

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 008823 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, EAID, ECON, JO 
SUBJECT: GOJ PREPARES FOR PUBLIC LAUNCH OF NATIONAL AGENDA 
 
REF: A. AMMAN 8584 
     B. AMMAN 8422 
     C. AMMAN 7979 
     D. AMMAN 7498 
     E. AMMAN 6898 
 
Classified By: Acting DCM Christopher Henzel for Reasons 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) The GOJ continues preparations for the public launch 
this month of the report of the National Agenda commission. 
In a November 7 briefing to donors, Deputy PM Muasher laid 
out plans for the implementation of the report's reform 
recommendations.  A strong marketing campaign will be 
necessary to sell the benefits of the program to a skeptical 
public.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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A THREE-PART REPORT 
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2.  (SBU) Deputy Prime Minister Marwan Muasher - head of the 
royal commission drafting a comprehensive National Agenda - 
held a meeting November 7 to brief donor countries and 
organizations on the Agenda's status.  (NOTE: Muasher last 
met with donors September 15, ref D.  END NOTE.)  Muasher 
confirmed that the National Agenda commission had completed 
its work, and said that its written report consisted of three 
parts.  First, a glossy booklet for mass distribution that 
explained the commission's primary findings and 
recommendations was currently at the printers and would be 
finished within a week.  Second, the report's "main document" 
of approximately 200 pages had already been bound and copied 
(in Arabic).  Following a format based on UNDP reports, 
Muasher stated that this volume contained timetables and 
benchmarks to be used in implementing the recommended 
reforms, as well as a list of all 450 people who contributed 
to the drafting of the Agenda.  An English version would, he 
hoped, be ready by the beginning of December.  Finally, there 
were "several thousand pages" in eight hard-cover volumes 
containing "highly technical" background and supporting 
documentation, including all the research used by the 
commission in arriving at its recommendations.  Muasher 
stated that complete information on the National Agenda would 
be available on-line in time for the Agenda's "public launch" 
at the following website:  nationalagenda.jo.  The government 
had not yet set a date for the launch, but was looking at the 
latter half of November. 
 
3.  (SBU) Muasher continued that the GOJ, led by Minister of 
State for Government Performance Ruwaideh Al Ma'aytah, would 
aggressively seek to implement the National Agenda's 
recommendations.  The government plans to establish a 
monitoring and evaluation unit in each ministry to prepare 
regular "progress reports," which would be audited by a 
central Government Performance Unit (GPU) and the Cabinet. 
These progress reports, Muasher stressed, would be available 
to all Jordanians to ensure public accountability. 
Government programs not in line with the Agenda would 
eventually be modified or discontinued.  Public spending 
would also be closely examined to ensure conformity with the 
Agenda.  Muasher later added that while the Agenda was 
"binding" on the government, some of its recommendations 
might prove to be too expensive or "impractical" to 
implement. 
 
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LOFTY GOALS 
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4.  (SBU) Turning to the National Agenda itself, Muasher 
emphasized that while local press reports may have focused on 
only a few of its elements (i.e., elections, taxation, and 
the journalists' association - ref B), the Agenda was broad 
in scope and covered eight different themes.  Many of the 
recommendations focused on economic issues as these were 
foremost in the minds of Jordanians.  Acknowledging the 
economic problems facing the country, such as a bloated 
public sector and high budget deficits, Muasher said he was 
nevertheless confident that Jordan could achieve the Agenda's 
ambitious macroeconomic and social targets through its 
recommendations for tax reform, attracting investment, 
expanding credit, improving vocational training, and 
promoting labor-intensive, export-oriented industries.  These 
targets included reducing the unemployment rate from the 
current 12.5% to 9.3% by 2012, and to 6.8% by 2017. 
Similarly, the Agenda envisions reducing the public debt from 
91% of GDP to 36% of GDP by 2017, while at the same time 
cutting poverty rates from over 14% to 10%, and increasing 
the percentage of women in the total workforce from 12.5% to 
20%.  Muasher added that these targets were all the more 
challenging given that a large number of young Jordanians are 
set to enter the labor market each year for the foreseeable 
future. 
 
5.  (SBU) Regarding political reform, Muasher said the 
Agenda's goal was to "regulate," but not limit, public 
participation in political life.  Noting that a free media 
was vital to political development, Muasher highlighted 
Agenda recommendations to prohibit the detention of 
journalists and for government divestiture of all equity - 
both direct and indirect - in the press.  Other 
recommendations, according to Muasher, would strengthen NGOs, 
enhance the status of women, and provide funds and greater 
freedoms to political parties.  Despite reported clashes over 
electoral reform (refs A,C-D), Muasher said it was very 
noteworthy that the commission agreed on a "starting point" 
(i.e., a "mixed system" electing MPs from individual 
districts and national party lists) and the "final goal" 
(i.e., the eventual election of all MPs from political party 
lists).  The Agenda also sought to bolster the role of 
parliament so that MPs could draft and initiate legislation - 
something now done only by the government - and exercise more 
oversight over government functions. 
 
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FUNDING 
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6.  (C) Muasher stated that approximately 7.5 billion 
Jordanian dinars (JD) - roughly USD 10.5 billion - would be 
needed over the 20-year life of the Agenda to fully fund its 
recommendations.  Roughly half this cost would come from the 
public sector, while the private sector would provide the 
remaining half.  This was not "new money," he stressed, 
noting that all government projects "will become National 
Agenda projects."  While an expected increase in revenues 
would help fully finance outlays by 2011, the GOJ expected a 
total "funding gap" of roughly JD 828 million from 2007 
through 2010.  Muasher appealed to donors to help cover this 
gap as a relatively short-term investment with important 
long-term benefits. 
 
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A DUBIOUS STREET 
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7.  (C) The limited press coverage to date on the National 
Agenda has either been very general, or focused on narrow 
issues - particularly the debate over electoral and media 
reforms.  Most ordinary Jordanians have yet to form opinions 
on the Agenda.  For example, two private company managers, 
well versed on business matters and current affairs, told 
poloff they had heard very little about the Agenda.  A young 
architect said he had heard several rumors about the National 
Agenda, but didn't know who was drafting it or when, if ever, 
it would be released.  Those who did have an opinion were, 
for the most part, critical in their remarks.  Several store 
clerks and taxi drivers told poloffs that the Agenda was 
nothing but "government hype" and that they expected it to 
"go nowhere."  A private school teacher said she did not give 
the Agenda any credence as the commission "never asked me or 
the public about our opinions." 
 
8.  (C) Not all comments have been negative.  A few non-elite 
Jordanians we talked to expressed guarded optimism about the 
Agenda from what they had heard and read.  One accountant 
gave quite a good summary of the Agenda's purpose and said he 
believed it would achieve "a large part of its goals." 
 
9.  (C) Conversations with ordinary Jordanians on the topic 
of reform in general, rather than the National Agenda, 
reflect two chief themes -- skepticism of the government's 
commitment to change, and a focus on immediate pocketbook 
issues.  One young computer entrepreneur, for instance, said 
that he and his friends don't believe the government is 
serious about reform.  If the GOJ wants public support for 
reform programs, including the National Agenda, he stressed 
that it must educate people about what it is trying to do 
and, more importantly, show how the reforms will benefit 
them.  A single, unemployed female said that "common 
Jordanians don't care about reform - what is on their minds 
is economic survival."  She continued that the public is not 
interested in the long-term impact of reform, and that people 
will only believe in and support reform if the government 
shows that it will improve their daily lives. 
 
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SALESPERSONS WANTED 
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10.  (C) Given public skepticism over reform, the GOJ faces 
an uphill battle in generating strong public backing for the 
National Agenda.  Muasher's staff has said on several 
occasions that they understand the need for an aggressive 
marketing campaign and would organize a series of "roadshows" 
and town hall meetings (refs C, E) to promote the Agenda. 
Yet little planning has been done on this front to date. 
After Muasher's donor briefing, poloff asked two members of 
his senior staff for an update on the Agenda's marketing 
strategy, including the content of the proposed roadshows and 
the personalities involved in drumming up public support. 
Neither had any substantive reply. 
 
11.  (C) To help rectify this lack of planning, post 
understands that the GOJ is dipping into the USAID-funded 
World Bank Trust Fund, established to support public sector 
reform, to finance a public relations campaign - to be 
implemented by Jordan's Executive Privatization Committee 
(EPC) - for the Agenda.  The EPC has accordingly issued a 
public request for proposals to design a public outreach 
program.  Up to USD 120,000 may be used for TV, radio and 
print advertising, as well as costs for public dissemination 
of the National Agenda reports.  This use of U.S. funding to 
help "sell" the Agenda, however, has already engendered 
additional negative press commentary from skeptics. 
HALE