US embassy cable - 05ADDISABABA3804

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 003804 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR A/S DR. FRAZER, DAS YAMAMOTO FROM VICKI HUDDLESTON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, ET, ELEC, UNREST 
SUBJECT: UNREPENTANT MELES: NO TURNING BACK AFTER BLOODY 
WEEK OF PROTESTS 
 
 
Classified By: Charge Vicki Huddleston for reason 1.4 (b,d) 
 
 1. SUMMARY:  I asked to meet with Prime Minister Meles to 
follow up on a promising conversation he had with Chairman 
Konare of the African Union. Meles said that there was no 
turning back from the recent crackdown on the opposition 
CUDP: the jailed leaders would be tried for treason; those 
demonstrators guilty of damaging property or human life would 
be tried for lesser crimes.  There would be no civil war, as 
the European Community Representative Clarke had predicted. 
Meles called the EU - US Ambassadors' statement unhelpful 
because its premises were flawed: CUDP leaders were not 
"political detainees" as stated, but rather criminals, and it 
was not Meles' responsibility to reconstitute the "rump" 
CUDP.  I told Meles that the EU-US Ambassadors' statement 
reflected our belief that the detainees were political, that 
immediate action must be taken to release thousands of 
innocent persons arrested during and after the 
demonstrations, that house-to-house searches at night be 
stopped, and that reconciliation and dialogue were the only 
way forward.  Meles responded that he was responsible for 
charting the way forward, and that it would be democratic. 
He would assure that the Parliament and the National 
Elections Board (NEB) operated according to the Constitution 
and the rule of law respected generally.  I complained that 
the government had failed to act speedily on these issues and 
had contributed to the break down of the US-UK sponsored 
talks, and asked for international observers at the CUDP 
trial.  Meles assured me that the trial would be conducted in 
accordance with international norms, including access to 
legal counsel.  He did not specifically agree to 
international observation, but said the trial would be public 
and the evidence would be the statements of the CUDP leaders 
in the US and in Ethiopia.  In response to my suggestion that 
a traditional Ethiopian form of reconciliation through Elders 
be used to reach out to the people, Meles said that the 
government has itself already started this process in Addis 
Ababa, Gondor, Bahir Dar, and a number of other provincial 
cities.  He claimed that three hundred detainees were 
released on Nov. 8. Next steps include the US and the Troika 
continuing to press the government through private meetings 
and public statement on human rights and the need for 
reconciliation through a democratic and peaceful process. End 
Summary 
 
2. (C)  PM Meles told me that previous US statements had been 
generally constructive, reflective of our good partnership. 
However, the EU-US Statement of Sunday was altogether 
different.  It seemed we did not understand the situation and 
were intervening where we should not.  We should understand 
that what had occurred was an uprising that threatened 
democracy; it should be a lesson for all of us that the 
Coalition for Unity and Democracy Party (CUDP) is/was not 
healthy, and that new shoots must rise from its ashes; and 
the threat to democracy must be dealt with in a legal manner. 
 As for CUDP members not detained, he did not want to see a 
"CUD Lite" extra-parliamentary opposition, nor was he 
planning to "coddle" them.  I responded that the purpose of 
the EU-US statement was to be helpful and to point out that 
the way forward was through dialogue and reconciliation.  We 
stated that CUDP leaders were political detainees because we 
believe this to be the case, and that we believed the most 
prudent way ahead would be to release them. 
 
3.  (C)  Meles said the CUDP leaders would be charged with 
treason, that they would have access to legal counsel and 
that the trial would be fair and open to the public.  Those 
detained during and after the riots were already being 
released, but those who had destroyed property or caused 
injuries or death would be prosecuted.  I urged international 
observation of the CUDP leaders' trial, speedy release of the 
thousands of others who had been detained, an end of night 
searches and arrests and the quick restoration of calm in 
Ethiopian cities.  Meles said that three hundred detainees in 
Addis had already been released, and that screening of other 
detainees was proceeding.  He rejected the idea of using a 
traditional Ethiopian method of "Schmagalu" -- conflict 
resolution through the counsel of respected Elders -- to 
reach out to the suffering population.  He explained that the 
government was already holding meetings for this purpose in 
Addis and regional cities where demonstrations had taken 
place. 
 
4.  (C)  The international community, according to Meles, 
should not blur the line between the CUDP leaders who had 
been jailed, those who were not detained because they had not 
committed criminal acts, and the new CUDP -- should there be 
one.  Referring to the US and EU meeting with the 
Parliamentary opposition last week, Meles said that we should 
understand that when we talk with the opposition, they would 
always put their best face forward -- not necessarily the 
true situation; he compared such sessions to "pleading to the 
emperor."  I responded that the Parliamentary opposition was 
on the whole quite reasonable and needed the space to 
effectively represent its constituents' views.  Meles 
underlined his point that the EU - US Ambassadors statement 
was "very unfortunate" and that external action/interference 
would never be allowed to replace the constitution and laws 
of the land. 
 
5. (C)  Meles told me that the worst was behind us; there 
would be no civil war, as EU Commissioner seemed to think. 
Events had unfolded as he had warned us; we should not be 
surprised.  The PM said he had tried to avoid the violence, 
but once the CUDP leaders called for street action and 
violence erupted, there was no turning back.  I pointed out 
that the government had unfortunately not moved swiftly to 
carry out the actions agreed upon during the dialogue between 
the parties.  It remained extremely difficult for the 
opposition to have their voices heard or get items on the 
agenda in Parliament.  As he well knew, the key issue of who 
would be appointed to the National Electoral Board remained 
unresolved.  The Prime Minister broke in to say that building 
democracy in Ethiopia was his responsibility and he would do 
so along the lines agreed, namely appointment of impartial 
National Elections Board; an independent judiciary; fair 
parliamentary process, and rule of law and accountability.  I 
said that we very much want to help with building a strong 
democracy via assistance in these critical areas.  The Prime 
Minister wrapped up by saying that the price had been paid. 
It was worse than he had anticipated - the price was "very 
high."  He would now work to move beyond recent events and 
carry out the needed democratic reforms.  I responded that we 
can help with democratic reforms and that good partners can 
and do disagree. 
 
6. (C) Comment:  Like it or not, the way ahead is very clear: 
the Prime Minister intends to call the shots on democratic 
reforms.  They will take place, but probably not as 
extensively or as fast as we would like.  Those CUDP leaders 
who have not been detained will be allowed to play a 
political role if/if they enter Parliament.  CUDP supporters 
in civil society and media leaders will stand trail for 
treason, or possibly lesser crimes. Much of the evidence 
against them will be their oral and written statements. 
While the judicial process will probably not satisfy us, the 
PM claims that it will be relatively open with access to 
legal counsel.  For our part we should work closely with the 
Troika,and continue to make public our deep concerns about 
human rights and the democratic process, not just as an 
international standard but for the long term stability of 
Ethiopia.  In this regards, I met with the Troika this 
morning to explore ways to get the EU - US statement in 
Amaharic into the local print media now that much of the 
private media is out of business and the government press 
refuses to run it.  We also agreed to continue to press  key 
government leaders on human rights and reform, including the 
Ministers of Justice and Information, the Speaker of the 
House, and the powerful behind the scene EPRDF operative 
Sabata Nega. I have hosted a town meeting for Americans and 
another for the Mission-wide local staff and backgrounder the 
international press. UK ambassador and I will likely do an 
interview with one or more of the still independent media to 
get our governments' concerns known. The US statement 
endorsing the EU-US statement and repeating critical parts of 
the message was most helpful. The Troika will seek a meeting 
with the PM to follow up on my conversation of last night. As 
the situation in the streets returns to normal, the vast 
majority of the detainees -- in the thousands -- will be 
released but several hundred charged.  The government is 
unlikely to be shaken by another series of riots in the near 
future given the brutality with which this one was put down. 
PM Meles will move ahead with some democratic reforms. 
Whether they will prevent a larger and more serious outbreak 
of violence in the more distant future the road will depend 
on how effectively and rapidly they are carried out that is 
why we should help with building good governance.  End 
Comment. 
HUDDLESTON