US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4529

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 004529 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC 
BARBORIAK 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Foreign Policy, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: SIX-PARTY TALKS, U.S. ARMS 
PROCUREMENTS, U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS 
 
1. Summary: Major Chinese-language Taipei dailies centered 
their reporting November 9 on the Government Information 
Office's announcement Tuesday that it would fine TVBS, a 
local cable TV station, NT$1 million dollars for its illegal 
ownership structure that has violated the Satellite 
Broadcast Law.  Coverage also focused on other local 
scandals and the Presidential Office's announcement 
appointing former Vice Premier Lin Hsin-i as Taiwan's envoy 
for the upcoming APEC summit.  The pro-independence "Taiwan 
Daily" is the only newspaper that reported on its front page 
President Chen's remarks Tuesday reiterating the importance 
of the U.S. arms procurements and said that Taiwan will 
regret it in the future if the island does not invest in 
national defense now.  The centrist "China Times" quoted a 
Hong Kong-based "South China Morning Post" report in its 
inside pages as saying that a U.S.-China-Taiwan closed-door 
meeting will resume November 29 - 30 in New York. 
 
2. Several Taipei newspapers editorialized on the death 
threats against Premier Frank Hsieh.  The "International 
Lookout" column of the "China Times" discussed the fifth 
round of the Six-Party talks, which will kick off November 
9.  The article said this round of talks will hardly achieve 
anything as Washington and Pyongyang continue to hold 
opposite views toward North Korea's nuclear program.  An 
editorial in the limited-circulation, pro-independence, 
English-language "Taiwan News" echoed President Chen's 
remarks on the importance of the U.S. arms procurements, 
saying Taiwan must fix its defense gaps to avoid future war 
in the Taiwan Strait.  Nat Bellocchi, former AIT Chairman 
and now a special adviser to the "Liberty Times" group, said 
in an opinion piece in the limited-circulation, pro- 
independence, English-language "Taipei Times" that "for 
Taiwan, danger lingers over the changes being made by China, 
and potentially by changes the United States may make in the 
future."  End summary. 
 
A)Six-Party Talks 
 
"Six-Party Talks Continue to Move on Very Slowly" 
 
The "International Lookout" column of the centrist, pro- 
status quo "China Times" [circulation: 400,000] wrote 
(11/9): 
 
"The fifth round of the Six-Party talks will kick off today. 
According to Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Wu Dawei, this 
round of talks will last for three days only and will be 
resumed afterwards in December.  What's the trick behind 
this? . 
 
"[T]he real reason is probably because the problems [of the 
talks] remain unresolved.  Pyongyang and Washington continue 
to hold opposite views: North Korea wants to discuss the 
issue of the light-water nuclear reactor first before 
talking about dismantling its nuclear weapons program. 
Washington, in contrast, prefers to see [North Korea's] 
nuclear weapons capabilities being dismantled first before 
both sides sit down and talk about the light-water nuclear 
reactor.  This gambling game leaves no room for compromise 
or further negotiations and confrontations may happen 
immediately when the talks begin.  That's why all the 
participating officials find it more acceptable to dissolve 
the meeting earlier to get ready for the upcoming APEC 
meeting in Pusan. 
 
"[North Korea Leader] Kim Jong Il has been gaining more 
confidence recently because two major forces are tilting 
towards him.  China promised to offer him more aid. 
[Chinese President] Hu Jintao reportedly gave his words when 
he visited Pyongyang the other day that Beijing will provide 
financial aid worth of US$2 billion to Pyongyang by 
installments.  Seoul, on the other hand, plans to set up a 
special company to provide aid to North Korea in areas 
including telecommunications, energy and transportation 
construction.  The company, which will be a seemingly joint 
venture by both the public and private sectors, is in 
reality financed by the Seoul government,  and is allowed to 
provide aid to Pyongyang without having to be checked by its 
congress. 
 
"It seems that the "Six Party" will be divided into "two 
factions."  All the participants in the talks hope to see 
the problems being resolved, but obviously the two sides: 
China and South Korea on one side and the United States and 
Japan on the other, are divided in terms of the means and 
steps that should be adopted [to resolve the 
confrontations].  Neither side wants to confront each other 
in the public; thus, they will have to slow down and discuss 
their disputes step by step.  The talks will unlikely fall 
apart, but they will hardly reach any conclusion, either." 
 
B)U.S. Arms Procurements 
 
"Taiwan Must Fix Defense Gaps to Avoid Future War" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" 
[circulation: 20,000] editorialized (11/9): 
 
"The pan-blue opposition majority in the Legislative Yuan's 
critical procedural committee boycotted for the 36th time 
the proposed special law that would authorize the government 
to purchase three advanced defensive weapons systems from 
the United States.  Moreover, conservative opposition 
Kuomintang and People First Party legislators in the 
national defense affairs committee Monday sliced all of the 
preparatory funds allocated by the MND in its annual 2006 
budget for the three procurements. . 
 
"The weekly refusal of the KMT and People First Party 
legislative delegations for well over a full year to allow 
the special law to even be normally referred to the 
Legislature's National Defense Committee has become an 
international as well as domestic political joke.  But the 
joke is not a laughing matter for Taiwan's 23 million people 
or a matter of amusement for our servicemen and women whose 
lives are risked by the inadequate and even obsolete state 
of our defensive equipment. 
 
"The unfortunate fact is that the rapid rise in the military 
clout of the People's Republic of China, its refusal to 
abandon the use of force against Taiwan, its enactment in 
March of a touted `anti-secession' law that authorizes 
Beijing to use non-peaceful means against Taiwan if `hopes 
for peaceful unification are exhausted' and the forward 
deployment of missiles across the Taiwan Strait demonstrate 
a genuine clear and present danger to our security. . 
 
"Indeed, the key message is that all of us may be safer if 
these procurements are approved mainly because they can 
puncture hopes for a quick victory by PRC military forces 
against Taiwan.  While we agree that Taiwan's national 
security or hopes for lasting peace in the Taiwan Strait 
cannot rely only or even mainly on military means, we 
believe that these procurements will act to reduce both the 
political and substantive impact of saber or missile 
rattling by Beijing and the chances of a shooting conflict 
in the Taiwan Strait. 
 
"The bottom line for Taiwan's 23 million citizens should 
communicate to opposition parties is that we will be safer 
with these new systems than we will without them." 
 
C) U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations 
 
"US Policy Stuck as China's Changes" 
 
Nat Bellocchi, former AIT Chairman and now a special adviser 
to the "Liberty Times" group, commented in an opinion piece 
in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
[circulation: 30,000] (11/9): 
 
"One scenario many China watchers now see is that Beijing 
has shifted policy regarding Taiwan, placing a priority on 
preventing Taiwan's independence in the immediate future, 
while continuing to insist on eventual unification.  . 
 
"China has also shifted its policy regarding the US by 
establishing better relations with countries that surround 
China (minus Japan), which will help strengthen Beijing's 
hand to deal with the US or regional matters on an equal 
basis.  All of these regional nations likely already accept 
the idea of not supporting Taiwan's independence.  The next 
step for China would be gain their support for unification. 
 
"As for Beijing's relations with the US, China sees it as 
necessary to play by the rules of globalization in order to 
carry out its vital economic expansion and soften its 
relationship with Washington, at least in the short term. 
It needs to do that to establish its position in the region 
and gain support for unification. . 
 
"These changes in the policies and actions of China and 
Taiwan have not influenced the US' policies toward either 
one - yet.  Washington's preoccupation with domestic and 
other external issues has absorbed the attention of top 
decision makers.  That does not mean that other issues are 
being ignored by the bureaucracy.  More likely, decisions 
are being postponed by senior officials who are preoccupied 
with the crisis of the day, or awaiting policy personnel 
that have not yet been chosen. . 
 
"But for Taiwan, danger lingers over the changes being made 
by China, and potentially by changes the US may make in the 
future when decisions cannot be avoided.  It remains unclear 
what pressures will develop in the US-China relationship, 
how well and in what direction Beijing will manage its 
changing environment and whose consensus will prevail in 
Taiwan.  An important question though is are opportunities 
for furthering Taiwan's future being lost in its internal 
struggles?" 
 
PAAL