US embassy cable - 05ISLAMABAD16643

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 ISLAMABAD 016643 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE ALSO PASS TO USAID 
USAID/W FOR A/AID ANDREW NATSIOS, JBRAUSE 
DCHA/OFDA KISAACS, GGOTTLIEB, MMARX, RTHAYER, BDEEMER 
AID/W FOR DCHA/OFDA 
SOUTH ASIA RESPONSE MANAGEMENT TEAM 
SOUTH ASIA EARTHQUAKE TASK FORCE 
DCHA/FFP FOR JONATHAN DWORKEN 
ANE DEPUTY ASSISTANT ADMINISTRATOR MARK WARD 
BANGKOK FOR OFDA SENIOR REGIONAL ADVISOR TOM DOLAN 
KATHMANDU FOR OFDA REGIONAL ADVISOR WILLIAM BERGER 
ROME PASS FODAG 
GENEVA FOR RMA AND NKYLOH 
NSC FOR JMELINE 
EUCOM FOR POLA/J3/J4/J5 
BRUSSELS FOR USAID PLERNER 
NEW YORK FOR TMALY 
SECDEF FOR SOLIC/PKHA, USDP/J3 
JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC FOR J3/J4/J5 
HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE FOR J3/J5 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID, AEMR, ASEC, MASS, ECON, KMDR, KPAO, OIIP, OPRC, EAGR, PGOV, PREL, PK, Earthquake 
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN - EARTHQUAKE:  PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF 
FOOD SITUATION 
 
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Summary 
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1.  As of November 2, approximately 981,800 affected 
beneficiaries in Pakistan are receiving food aid.  This is 
98% of the 1 million caseload identified by the U.N. World 
Food Program (WFP).  WFP's recent assessment estimates more 
than 2.3 million people are in need of food aid.  Various 
non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have stated that the 
number of 2.3 million people in need is too high.  WFP 
representatives in Pakistan have stated that WFP will 
maintain its caseload of 1 million people.  WFP has 
requested that the GOP provide food assistance to the 
remaining affected populations.  The USAID Disaster 
Assistance Response Team (DART) is bringing in a food expert 
to assess the need for U.S. food assistance.  End summary. 
 
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WFP Joint Emergency Food Security and Nutrition Assessment 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
2.  Shortly after the earthquake, WFP issued EMOP Pakistan 
10491.0.  The EMOP listed the number of beneficiaries as 
1,000,000.  On October 26, WFP, the U.N. Children's Fund 
(UNICEF) and OXFAM completed a joint Emergency Food Security 
and Nutrition Assessment to determine the following: the 
amount of food in country, the amount of additional food 
coming into the country, the percentage of affected areas 
needing food, and the amount of food required to assist 
affected areas.  This assessment identified 2,313,857 people 
in need of food assistance.  The EMOP figures have been 
revised accordingly with the Food Requirement for a 5-month 
period (1 November 2005 through 31 March 2006) at 212,865 
metric tons (MT). 
 
3.  The Government of Pakistan (GOP) agrees with this 
finding and is calculating food needs accordingly.  However, 
various NGOs cite the number of 2.3 million people in need 
as too high.  WFP representatives in Pakistan have told 
USAID and USAID/DART representatives that the WFP will 
maintain its caseload of 1 million and requests that the GOP 
provide food assistance to the remaining affected 
beneficiaries. 
 
4.  Additional findings from the WFP Joint Assessment 
indicate that rice and maize harvest could not be completed 
in some areas due to landslides and land fissures.  Winter 
wheat planting would have started in November, but many seed 
stocks have been buried or spoiled.  The next wheat planting 
season is summer 2006 with harvest in October 2006.  Fifty 
percent of the heads of households interviewed in the 
assessment reported a total loss of grain stocks. 
Supplementary feeding will be necessary for 440,000 pregnant 
and lactating women, as well as children under the age of 
five in rural areas. 
 
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GOP Reaction to WFP Assessment 
------------------------------ 
 
5.  GOP Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock (MINFAL) 
Secretary Ismail Qureshi agreed with the WFP assessment that 
 
SIPDIS 
2.3 million people are in need of food aid.  In order to 
meet the food aid need brought on by the earthquake, MINFAL 
requests 130,000 MT of wheat; 80,000 MT and 50,000 MT will 
be allocated to the AJK and NWFP, respectively. 
Calculations are based on a 6-month time frame. 
 
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NGO Reaction to WFP Assessment 
------------------------------ 
 
6.  On October 29, the USAID/DART Economic and Livelihoods 
Officer (ELO) met with representatives of the International 
Refugee Committee (IRC) and Mercy Corps (MC), each of which 
has at least 20 years experience working in country and 
employs a number of local residents.  These NGOs hold that 
fewer than 2.3 million people are in need of emergency food 
assistance, given existing food stocks, local residents' 
coping strategies and strong social networks in earthquake- 
affected areas.  The NGO representatives remarked that if 
populations living at high elevations are threatened with 
food insecurity, they travel to lower elevations for food. 
Because residences at high elevations are scattered and 
fairly inaccessible, effective food distribution programs 
would provide food at strategic distribution points.  Food 
distribution will become more important in the winter 
months, as stocks run out. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Other Reactions to WFP Assessment 
--------------------------------- 
 
7.  An interagency assessment is currently underway and is 
expected to be completed on/about November 8.  The Asian 
Development Bank and the World Bank are facilitating this 
assessment; a damage and needs assessment for the 
agriculture and livestock sector is being conducted by the 
FAO with MINFAL.  Preliminary findings of damage to crops 
and food stocks show that slides, collapse of stores, and 
subsequent rains caused widespread damage. 
 
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USAID/DART Reaction to WFP Assessment 
------------------------------------- 
 
8.  According to the USAID/DART ELO, a major coping strategy 
for food insecurity is male heads of households journeying 
to the lowlands to purchase food, which they provide to 
their families upon their return.  Many roads are 
impassable, but some back trails are accessible, allowing 
those who live at higher elevations to travel to lower 
elevations to access markets and purchase food.  WFP reports 
of widespread loss of food are contrary to information 
gathered by the USAID/DART in the field and by NGO partners. 
These reports indicate that although some people lost food 
stocks in the earthquake, people in earthquake-affected 
areas have fairly significant stocks of food at present, 
given the recent harvest.  People in affected areas store 
food underground or keep food in the form of livestock, 
thereby insulating themselves against food shocks. 
Populations in affected areas also draw upon their social 
networks for safety nets.  Although some food assistance is 
needed, it is not an immediate need because of existing food 
stocks, coping mechanisms, and safety networks.  According 
to the USAID/DART ELO, it is estimated that in general, 
existing food stocks of those sheltering in place could last 
up to two months, although those who choose to reside in 
camps will require immediate food assistance. 
 
-------------------------- 
GOP Request for Assistance 
-------------------------- 
 
9.  The Pakistan Agriculture Storage Services Corporation 
(PASSCO) has "operating reserves" of 1 million MT of wheat. 
Prior to the earthquake, the planned distribution of the 1 
million MT of stocks was: NWFP 270,000 MT; AJK 250,000 MT; 
Defense Department 150,000 MT; Northern Areas 100,000 MT; 
Balochistan 230,000.  This distribution is based on last 
year's needs in these food deficit areas.  The GOP estimates 
requirements of 123 kilograms (kg) of wheat per person per 
year.  The provinces of Punjab and Sindh meet their own 
wheat needs by production and private commercial purchases. 
 
10.  The GOP does maintain an operating reserve of 1 million 
tons.  Therefore, it does not have any reserves to support 
the affected beneficiaries.  The GOP requests a total of 
130,000 MT of wheat to meet the needs of 2.3 million 
affected people.  To date, the GOP has loaned the WFP 30,000 
metric tons (MT) of food aid.  According to the GOP, the 
Government of Turkey has donated 50,000 MT of food aid which 
will arrive in 30 days.  The GOP requests that the U.S. 
Government donate the remaining 50,000 MT of food aid. 
 
-------------------------- 
Food Distributions to Date 
-------------------------- 
 
11.  WFP has the lead in coordinating food aid and logistics 
under the UN clusters groups framework.  WFP reported that 
to date, 518,000 people have received WFP food rations, 
including high energy biscuits, wheat flour, vegetable oil, 
and pulses.  Because many roads in valleys are fully or 
partially blocked, food distributions are taking place at 
roadblocks as far into the valleys as possible.  From 
distribution points, mule packs carry food further up into 
the mountains.  WFP reported a number of distribution 
constraints. 
 
12.  On October 30, a WFP representative told a USAID/DART 
representative that WFP plans to provide food assistance for 
1 million people because it expects the International 
Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to provide food assistance 
for 150,000 people and the GOP to provide food assistance 
for the remaining people in need. 
 
13.  MINFAL does not anticipate any disruption of commercial 
sales by importing additional wheat for the affected areas. 
Commercial sales since July 2005 total approximately 580,000 
MT.  The commercially purchased wheat stays in Karachi and 
is not transported to the rest of Pakistan.  Therefore, 
MINFAL does not anticipate a disruption in local markets by 
additional imported wheat. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Constraints to Food Distributions 
--------------------------------- 
 
14.  With the onset of winter, food aid will need to be pre- 
positioned for approximately 200,000 affected beneficiaries 
in remote areas.  Preliminary findings of damage and food 
need assessments show damage to crops and stores of seed and 
fertilizer.  Food aid will become increasingly important in 
the winter months as remaining food stocks run out.  The 
November winter wheat planting has been limited by damages 
to land and the destruction of agricultural inputs. 
Therefore, the 2006 spring/summer harvest of wheat will be 
drastically affected and may require food aid to continue 
through October 2006. 
 
15.  A USAID/DART food expert will arrive in country by 8 
November to ascertain the level of U.S. food assistance that 
will be required. 
 
 
CROCKER