US embassy cable - 05ADDISABABA3803

C O N F I D E N T I A L ADDIS ABABA 003803 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/FO, AF/E. LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA 
WATCHERS. 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ET, AF UNION 
SUBJECT: AU KONARE'S POTENTIAL BREAKTHROUGH ON ETHIOPIAN 
INTERNAL POLITICAL CRISIS 
 
 
Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES A.I. VICKI HUDDLESTON. REASON: 1.4 (B) 
 AND (D) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  African Union (AU) Commission Chairperson 
Konare claims that Ethiopian PM Meles accepted his proposal 
of dialoguing with opposition members without the 
precondition of their first joining Parliament.  Konare said 
that AU Assembly Chairman Obasanjo told Meles that he was 
willing to meet with jailed opposition leaders in Addis 
Ababa.  End summary. 
 
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AU BREAKTHROUGH? 
---------------- 
 
2. (C) During a November 8 meeting, Konare briefed Charge on 
the outcome of his lengthy and "frank" November 3 discussions 
with PM Meles (Note:  Konare first met with Meles in his 
office and then accompanied Meles on his flight to a 
conference in Germany.  End note).  Konare told Charge that 
Meles was "very clear" in his acceptance of his proposal that 
dialogue commence even without the precondition of opposition 
members joining Parliament.  (Comment:  If accurate, Konare's 
report represents a significant shift in the PM's position. 
PM Meles has consistently told the troika (U.S., EC, UK) that 
CUD officials must first take their seats in parliament 
before any dialogue is possible.  End Comment). 
 
3. (C) In addition, Konare said, AU Assembly Chairman 
Obasanjo also offered to meet with the opposition in Addis 
Ababa. 
 
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STILL NO MOVEMENT ON TRIBUNAL 
----------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Konare lamented that he and Meles did not see 
eye-to-eye on the issue of tribunals for the jailed CUD 
leaders.  According to Konare, Meles insisted that Ethiopian 
law is clear that the trials must go on.  Konare agreed with 
Meles that there can be no "rose revolution" in Ethiopia. 
Konare said he told Meles that proceeding with the tribunals 
will only lead to martyrdom of the CUD leaders and drive the 
party into clandestinity.  He urged Meles to delay trial of 
the detainees. 
 
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WHAT DOES IT TAKE? 
------------------ 
 
5. (C) Konare said he has met not only with PM Meles, but 
also with Ethiopian civil society and women's groups.  Konare 
prevailed upon his Ethiopian interlocutors to resolve issues 
peacefully. He opined that the CUD's calling for a seemingly 
endless strike is a political mistake as Ethiopians live 
day-to-day and cannot afford the consequences of a prolonged 
strike.  In addition, Konare told Meles he must get the 
situation back to normal because the most affected area of 
town (Mercato) is largely Muslim, and prolonged tension is a 
"disaster in the making." 
 
6. (C) Konare acknowledged that the CUD's hands may be 
somewhat tied due to its dependence upon the Ethiopian 
diaspora for financial backing.  This must be changed, he 
said, as the diaspora are not subject to the risks.  Charge 
pointed out that the UEDF lost their diaspora-provided 
funding when they decided to go to parliament.  Konare said 
he told Meles that not funding civil society groups before 
the election was a mistake.  Civil society is part and parcel 
of democracy, Konare noted, and these groups are now overly 
dependent upon the diaspora.  Konare said that he urged Meles 
to not follow in the footsteps of former Ethiopian leader 
Mengistu, whom history has condemned.  Rather, he encouraged 
Meles to  build on the nationalism of Haile Selassie, who, 
while feudal, at least created a sense of nationhood. 
 
7. (C) The AU Chairperson told Charge that he wants the 
government to wait on trying the opposition leaders, cease 
night arrests, build civil society, and engage in dialogue 
with the opposition.  Konare said he believes the opposition 
needs to understand the value of respecting rule of law, 
engaging in dialogue, and avoiding confrontation.  Charge 
agreed with Konare that dialogue is key to resolving the 
internal political crisis, and said she would call for an 
appointment with the PM to follow up on Konare's good message. 
HUDDLESTON