US embassy cable - 05ALMATY4010

UNCLAS  ALMATY 004010 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KZ, 2005 Election, POLITICAL 
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ROUNDUP, 
NOVEMBER 8 
 
REF: Almaty 3919 
 
1. (U) This is the seventh in a series of weekly election 
roundups in advance of Kazakhstan's December 4, 2005 
presidential elections.  Items were drawn primarily from 
the local press and media. 
 
President Nazarbayev's Campaign 
------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) President Nazarbayev continued to participate in a 
heavy schedule of large public events around the country, 
involving groups such as students, teachers, academicians, 
workers, and intelligentsia.  On October 28, he addressed 
the congress of entrepreneurs in Astana and promised to 
support entrepreneurship, especially small businesses. 
"It is necessary to continue work on protecting private 
property. Entrepreneurs must feel confident that business 
in Kazakhstan is safe and promising. In the next three 
years the credits extended to small and medium size 
businesses will amount to 95 billion tenge ($709 million), 
which will make it possible to create 200,000 new jobs," 
the president promised. 
 
3. (U) On October 31, President Nazarbayev addressed more 
than 300 delegates from around the country at a special 
congress of the Federation of Trade Unions.  In his 
speech, Nazarbayev outlined the economic and social 
indicators the government plans to achieve by 2012: GDP 
per capita will be increased to $8,000-9,000; individual 
incomes will be doubled; average wages will be increased 
up to 70,000 tenge ($522); social allowances and stipends 
will be increased by 2-2.5 times; and pensions will be 
increased by 1.5-2 times.  The President also announced 
that, beginning in 2007, victims of the Semipalatinsk 
nuclear tests will receive lump sum compensation payments 
totaling approximately 14 billion tenge ($104 million). 
At the end of the congress, the delegates passed a 
resolution expressing their full support for President 
Nazarbayev. 
 
4. (U) Nazarbayev spent three days campaigning in South 
Kazakhstan Oblast.  On November 2, he met publicly with 
representatives of the military and law enforcement in 
Shymkent to discuss modernization plans.  After the 
meeting, Nazarbayev performed a modeling flight on a 
ground attack aircraft training system.  The same day the 
president visited the Shymkent Tire Factory, the "Melange" 
Cotton Fabric Factory, and the Shymkent Central Mosque for 
Ramadan prayers.  On November 3, Nazarbayev visited the 
Saryagash border district, where he attended a fall 
agricultural fair.  On November 4 Nazarbayev wrapped up 
his tour by visiting Kentau City. 
 
5. (U) Nazarbayev's Public Reception Office in Almaty 
(reftel) has reportedly received over 700 requests and 
complaints, including regarding gas shortages; lack of 
water supply; problems with electric power supply; and 
public transportation.  All requests and complaints are 
forwarded to appropriate agencies.  The head of 
Nazarbayev's Almaty election headquarters told the press 
that some needy residents had received financial aid from 
the City Social Department as a result of their 
complaints. 
 
The Opposition 
-------------- 
 
6. (U) "For a Just Kazakhstan" candidate Zharmakhan 
Tuyakbay held a series of campaign events in the northest 
and southern parts of the country.  While some events 
proceeded peacefully, such as in Atbasar and Kostanay, in 
many other cities there were disturbances.  On October 29 
in Pavlodar, when FJK activists tried to hold a meeting in 
the "Kosmos" movie theater they found it occupied by a 
large crowd of combative young men, many of them drunk, 
who work at the local aluminum plant owned by Aleksandr 
Mashkevich, Patoh Shodiev and Alidjon Ibragimov.  The 
police were present but reportedly declined to intervene. 
On October 30 in Ekibastuz (Pavlodar Oblast), a group of 
drunken young people tried to disrupt the meeting by 
yelling, swearing, and trying to provoke fights.  The 
police present at the meeting reportedly refused to 
intervene.  FJK alleges that the incident was the result 
 
 
of a meeting the day before between the city akim and the 
management of city enterprises and organizations.  On 
October 31 in Yesil (Akmola Oblast), Tuyakbay and his team 
encountered a group of school children at the entrance of 
the City Culture Center shouting pro-Nazarbayev slogans 
under the direction of their teachers.  Inside the 
building, another group of young people disrupted the 
meeting by yelling and tearing down Tuyakbay's campaign 
posters.  Once again, the police reportedly did not 
intervene.  Similar disruptions reportedly occurred in 
Peremyetnoye, Aktobe, Zhanatas, Lebyazhye, Pavlodar, 
Georgievka, and Semipalatinsk. 
 
7. (SBU) "Ak Zhol" candidate Alikhan Baymenov also 
experienced some difficulties during his regional campaign 
events.  A November 1 event in Astana was disrupted when 
the electoral commission issued a permit for a venue not 
approved by the akim's office.  Baymenov told the press 
that he viewed the confusion as an intentional effort to 
disrupt the event.  He also complained that the list of 
approved venues included only places on the outskirts of 
the city.  In a brief conversation on November 3, Baymenov 
told POEC chief that he had experienced several similar 
problems with venues, and also with distorted press 
coverage.  In one instance the local television station 
planted people in the audience who pretended to sleep 
through Baymenov's speech, filmed them briefly, then the 
entire group left together. 
 
 
The Other Candidates 
-------------------- 
 
8. (U) "Tagibat" (Green) movement candidate Mels 
Yeleusizov is conducting a less energetic campaign than 
the other candidates.  Yeleusizov told the press on 
October 31 that his staff was still preparing his posters 
and campaign films, and that he did not intend to arrange 
large public meetings or concerts.  His only campaign 
event to attract news coverage so far was a November 1 
visit to the Almaty Center for Social Adaptation of 
Vagrants, where residents asked him to help with a 
property expropriation issue. 
 
9. (U) Communist People's Party candidate Yerasyl 
Abylkasymov started a visit to Atyrau oblast on November 3 
by laying a wreath at the Lenin monument.  He then met 
with a small group of teachers at a city school, where he 
said "I am also a teacher.  I know your problems and only 
I can solve your problems."  Abylkasymov told the teachers 
about his election program, which includes fighting 
inflation and corruption, redistribution of oil revenues, 
and the confiscation of enterprises, oil fields and 
pipelines transferred to foreigners. 
 
 
Three Candidates Pledge to Observe Fair Competition Rules 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
10. (U) On November 4, the campaign staffs of Nursultan 
Nazarbayev, Yerasyl Abylkasymov, and Mels Yeleusizov 
signed an agreement pledging to observe fair competition 
rules developed by the CEC.  The rules include pledges to 
follow the Constitution and election legislation, not to 
use dirty PR, not to bribe the electorate, and not to 
resort to political radicalism.  Zharmakhan Tuyakbay and 
Alikhan Baymenov refused to sign the agreement.  On 
November 1, Tuyakbay issued a statement explaining that he 
refused to sign because the rules included no real 
measures to provide for a fair, free and transparent 
election.  The opposition's previous proposals to amend 
current election legislation had been rejected.  In his 
address to the CEC on October 31, Baymenov pointed out 
that a declaration that did not contain specific measures 
could not provide for a fair and open election. 
 
 
Daughter of FJK Activist Reported Missing 
----------------------------------------- 
 
11. (U) The 14 year-old daughter of Almaty FJK activist 
Yelena Nikitina disappeared on October 31, according to a 
November 2 FJK announcement.  FJK claims that law 
enforcement officials visited Nikitina several times from 
 
 
October 23 to October 29.  They allegedly tried to recruit 
Nikitina to provide information about FJK headquarters' 
activities.  On October 24, unspecified members of 
"special services" reportedly asked Yelena about her 
daughter.  (Note: Post will follow this situation closely. 
It is not clear whether foul play is actually involved. 
End note.) 
 
 
Incidents Related to Transport of Campaign Materials 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
12. (U) FJK has filed a complaint with law enforcement 
agencies regarding the November 1 seizure by road police 
in Zyryanovsk (Eastern Kazakhstan Oblast) of Tuyakbay 
campaign materials and opposition newspapers (Epokha, 
Svoboda Slova, Zhuma-Times and Pravda Kazakhstana).  The 
road police reportedly seized the materials without 
producing a warrant or court ruling.  On November 3, a 
stolen car containing Baymenov campaign materials was 
found close to Taraz City airport.  The police returned 
the materials to the driver, who said the car had been 
stolen earlier that day.  A bus carrying Tuyakbay campaign 
materials that was reported missing in Aktobe Oblast on 
October 27 has been found, along with its passengers.  It 
had broken down. 
 
 
Print Run of Zhuma-Times Seized 
------------------------------- 
 
13. (U) On November 3, 12,000 copies of the Zhuma Times 
opposition weekly were seized in Almaty.  The same day the 
Dauir printing house, which prints the weekly, received an 
order from the Medeu district prosecutor ordering the 
seizure of the whole print run (100,000 copies).  The 
ruling said that the weekly issue carried an article 
insulting the president's dignity and honor. 
 
 
Senate Rejects Request to Punish Senator Battalova 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
14. (U) At a plenary session on November 3, the Senate 
examined a motion filed by the Procurator General to 
punish Senator Zauresh Battalova for conducting an 
unsanctioned rally in Almaty on October 8.  Senate 
Chairman Abykayev had previously written to the CEC to 
recommend that Battalova face administrative charges for 
the Almaty event.  The senate recognized Abykayev's 
recommendation and the CEC's subsequent concurrence as 
grounded, but declined the Procurator General's motion on 
the grounds that it was the first charge against 
Battalova. 
 
 
CEC Activities 
-------------- 
 
15. (U) On November 2, the CEC held a briefing on the 
requirements of the election law regarding campaigning - 
placement of advertisements in media, provision of 
facilities for candidates to hold their meetings with 
voters, etc.  CEC Chairman Zhumabekov announced that he 
would be available to meet with the heads of candidates' 
campaign headquarters twice a week to answer their 
questions. 
 
16. (U) Due to substantial international interest in the 
upcoming elections, the CEC has launched a new English- 
language website at 
http://www.election.kz/site/?mod=news&lng=eng &year=2005. 
The CEC has invited all candidates to post their election 
programs on the site. 
 
17.  (U) For technical reasons, the CEC has slightly 
reduced the number of polling stations that will use the e- 
voting system, CEC Deputy Chairman Kuandyk Turgankulov 
announced on November 4 in Astana.  According to 
Turgankulov, 18 polling stations out of 1475 have been 
excluded due to problems with the electric supply. 
 
 
Ministry of Information Media Monitoring 
 
 
---------------------------------------- 
 
18. (U) On October 31, the Ministry of Information, 
Culture and Sports announced the results of its short-term 
monitoring of coverage of the election campaign by state 
media.  The Ministry monitored Khabar, Kazakhstan TV 
companies, Kazakh radio, Yegemen Kazakhstan and 
Kazakhstanskaya Pravda newspapers.  It excluded analytical 
materials and coverage of the incumbent President's 
regular work that did not include campaigning.  The 
Ministry of Information reported that in general, all 
state-owned media outlets provided equal coverage of all 
candidates' campaigns, but the Kazinform agency with two- 
thirds of its information devoted to President Nazarbayev 
does not. The Ministry sent a letter to Kazinform with a 
request to level out its coverage of the candidates' 
campaigns. 
 
OSCE Issues First Interim Report 
-------------------------------- 
 
19. (U) On November 2, the ODIHR/OSCE election observation 
mission issued its first interim report on the results of 
its observation of the election campaign. It noted a 
number of shortcomings, such as detention and prosecution 
of people for organizing and participating in illegal 
meetings, incidents of illegal restrictions of the freedom 
of speech, confiscation or forced delays in publication of 
newspapers, and detention of journalists.  The report also 
criticized recent amendments to the election law as 
falling short of OSCE standards. 
 
 
International observers 
----------------------- 
 
20.  (U) As of November 1, the CEC had accredited 187 
foreign observers:  44 from OSCE/ODIHR, 38 from the CIS, 
31 from other international organizations, and 74 from 
foreign countries. 
 
ORDWAY 
 
 
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