US embassy cable - 05ASUNCION1390

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASUNCION 001390 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR LAC/AA 
NSC FOR SUE CRONIN 
TREASURY FOR OTA WARFIELD, VAN KOCH, MILLAR 
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD DAN JOHNSON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/19/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KCRM, SNAR, PINR, PA 
SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: CABRAL, CORRUPTION, AND U.S. POLICY 
 
Classified By: Charge Kevin M. Johnson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C)  On 10/26, post learned of a new attempt to promote 
corrupt police official Aristides Cabral with a Senate vote 
on 10/27, the day of Ambassador Keane's departure from 
Paraguay.  The Embassy moved quickly with the Vice-President 
and other senior GOP officials as well as key Senators to 
stop the promotion.  After much back and forth, the Senate 
voted not to promote Cabral, effectively ending his police 
career.  However, President Duarte allowing this vote to 
occur after promising us Cabral's career was over, and the 
support of almost all  Colorado Party Senators, call into 
question the GOP's willingness and/or ability to turn the 
page on corruption.  Charge stressed our concern over this 
issue to Acting President Castiglioni on 11/3, noting that 
relations would have been seriously damaged had Cabral been 
promoted.  Charge concluded that this incident signaled that 
Colorado Senators (and possibly, the President) were 
misreading the USG.  Castiglioni offered that Duarte had made 
a "mistake" and promised to clarify our position.  Mounting 
political pressures could threaten much of what has been 
achieved in Paraguay.  Post suggests the USG be prepared to 
counter these pressures in coming months.  End Summary. 
 
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Unpleasant Surprise on Cabral 
----------------------------- 
 
2.  (C)  On 10/26, post learned that Senator Carlos Filizzola 
of the socialist Country in Solidarity Party (PSS) had 
exercised his prerogative as Senate President to place the 
promotion of police official Aristides Cabral on the Senate's 
agenda on 10/27 (without going through the normal procedure 
of seeking agreement of party leaders).  (Note. Post has 
evidence that Cabral is corrupt and has provided notorious 
drug traffickers with protection.  Last year, the President 
allowed his name to go forward to the Senate on a list of 
police officials recommended for promotion, despite having 
been breifed on Cabral by the Ambassador.  The Embassy 
lobbied Senators to vote against Cabral.  Cabral's Colorado 
Party supporters decided to suspend consideration of Cabral's 
promotion after they realized they didn't have the votes to 
win.  After ensuing demarches, both here and in Washington, 
President Duarte promised the Ambassador personally that he 
would ensure Cabral would not be promoted nor given a job of 
any substance.  End Note.) 
 
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All Out Lobbying Effort ... 
--------------------------- 
 
3.  (C)  Upon learning that Cabral's promotion had been 
placed on the Senate agenda, the Embassy took up a full court 
press to prevent this from happening.  Ambassador Keane 
called Vice-President Castiglioni and put in a call to 
President Duarte (Duarte never returned the call) urging that 
the President exercise his prerogative to withdraw the 
recommendation for Cabral's promotion and thus prevent a vote 
in the Senate.  The DCM called acting FM Gimenez, Finance 
Minister Bergen, Duarte confidant Da Rosa (Colorado Party 
bench leader in the House of Deputies), and senior 
Presidential advisor Walde.  Polcouns called senior Senate 
leaders from the governing Colorado Party and the opposition 
parties.  Visiting FBI Director Mueller took up the issue in 
his meetings with VP Castiglioni, Interior Minister Benitez, 
and Paraguayan National Police (PNP) Chief Isasa. 
Castiglioni assured us he opposed Cabral's promotion.  He 
maintained that "if they could not block Cabral's promotion, 
the President would deny him an assignment and push him to 
retire."  He asked that we keep this "fall-back" position 
confidential. 
 
SIPDIS 
 
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... Barely Turns the Tide 
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4.  (U)  After much back and forth, particularly within the 
ranks of opposition parties debating whether to walk out to 
deny the vote a quorum, the motion to promote Cabral was 
voted down 20-16.  Amongst those who voted to promote Cabral 
were 13 Senators from the governing Colorado Party, the two 
PPS Senators including Senate President Filizzola, and 
Liberal Party dissident Sen. Laino, notorious for his 
anti-American bent.  The vote to deny the promotion enjoyed 
the support of 18 Senators from the opposition parties plus 
two Colorado Senators who broke ranks after we and VP 
Castiglioni intervened.  Another Colorado Senator, Osvaldo 
Dominguez Smith (whose father Osvaldo Dominguez Dibb is 
challenging Duarte for Party President), decided to absent 
himself from Congress to avoid keeping his commitment to the 
Colorado Party Senate leadership to vote in Cabral's favor. 
 
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Clarifying Red Lines for VP 
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5.  (C)  On 11/2 CDA met privately with VP (Acting President) 
to stress the seriousness of this issue, noting that 
relations would have been seriously damaged had Cabral been 
promoted.  The fact that the President allowed the vote to 
happen after all that had passed before, including Duarte's 
personal assurances, was troubling.  Overwhelming Colorado 
support for Cabral in the Senate meant that Colorado leaders 
(and possibly the President) either misunderstood or 
dismissed the USG position.  The VP had to understand that, 
while we do not expect corruption to disappear overnight, 
there are limits to what the USG can accept and still be an 
active supporter of the GOP; direct GOP support to narcotics 
traffickers crosses a red line, and promoting Cabral was in 
that category, as we had made absolutely clear.  There were 
Colorado and other politicians linked to traffickers, CDA 
continued, and they would continue to seek GOP support and 
protection; the President's friends should urge him to resist 
such pressure.  U.S. policy in the future would continue to 
depend on GOP actions. 
 
6.  (C)  Castiglioni reiterated his long-time opposition to 
Cabral's promotion, saying he was totally surprised when this 
happened, and very relieved when "his and our intervention" 
worked.   Duarte clearly made "at least two mistakes," he 
said, "one in not withdrawing the promotion proposal months 
ago, and another in not resisting Senate pressures now."  The 
VP said Duarte often makes mistakes and acts rashly (citing 
NDF's earlier incitement of land invasions and the Casado 
expropriation) and assumed that had happened here.  Perhaps 
someone had pleaded for the chance to help an old friend and 
asked that NDF not allow the "yanquis" to intervene in such 
decisions, he speculated.  He pleaded ignorance as to why 
Cabral enjoyed such support in the Senate, claiming that 
Colorado Senators Rachid and Fanego were his champions, but 
he didn't know why (sic).  He speculated that other Senators 
had just gone along.  (Note: The VP pointedly did not mention 
Colorado Senate leader Galaverna, a major Duarte ally and 
Cabral supporter.  End Note.)  The VP claimed Duarte was 
"absolutely moral, and any mistake was not a lack of 
political will."  He said he understood and would pass on our 
message and hoped cooperation would continue to grow, asking 
that we remain in close contact. 
 
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Avoiding the Worst Case 
----------------------- 
 
7.  (C)  The Senate vote to deny Cabral's promotion means 
Cabral's career as a police official effectively ends in 
December of this year.  This is excellent news.  The fact 
that this issue ever even came up for a vote -- and that it 
did so on the day Ambassador Keane was departing -- is 
disturbing.  President Duarte had assured Ambassador Keane 
that Cabral would never be promoted when rumors were 
circulating several months ago that he was under 
consideration for assignment as police chief in Ciudad del 
Este.  Paraguay's Ambassador to the U.S. gave the Department 
similar assurances, as did the Deputy Foreign Minister.  The 
President could have withdrawn Cabral's name from Senate 
consideration at any time, including up through the day it 
came up for a vote in the Senate.  He declined to do so. 
 
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Pressure on Duarte? 
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8.  (C)  It is inconceivable the Colorado Party leadership in 
the Senate would have moved on a subject as controversial as 
Cabral's promotion without the President's knowledge. 
According to one Embassy contact, Castiglioni tried to 
convince Duarte to withdraw Cabral's name, but Duarte was 
insistent the matter come to a vote.  According to Colorado 
Sen. Dominguez, powerful Colorado Senators were insistent 
Duarte allow this vote go forward or face "serious 
consequences."  When asked to explain the reason for the 
overriding Colorado Senate support for Cabral, Dominguez 
responded that Cabral knows lots of secrets and has done lots 
of favors creating a constituency amongst powerful 
politicians who either feel they owe him something or are 
afraid he has something on them. 
 
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A Step Back When Caught 
----------------------- 
 
9.  (C)  It is not clear whether the Colorado Senators 
connived to promote Cabral with Duarte's blessing or gave him 
no choice but to lend it tacit support.  After we discovered 
the surprise vote, Castiglioni told us that the President 
would make Cabral retire even if the Senate promoted him. 
We'll never know if such a plan was real or simply a response 
to being "caught" before the promotion plan succeeded. 
Either way, this is a sobering reminder of the threats to 
reform. 
 
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Policy Implications: Stick As Well As Carrot 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
10.  (C)  Long arguing that USG support for Duarte was a 
wager rather than a sure thing, we are not shocked at 
continued corruption.  This incident reinforces, however, the 
need for nuanced U.S. policy that balances support for 
reforms with clear signals as to what we cannot accept.  The 
Cabral case, while troubling in its own right, is more 
important as an example of a very corrupt political culture 
and the need for direct U.S. pressure to counter other 
interests.  Ironcially, Duarte and his supporters are 
increasingly vocal in asking why the USG doesn't provide more 
support in light of GOP efforts against corruption and 
narcotics trafficking.  While reminding GOP of extensive 
support in many areas, we need to call attention to major 
problems as well as the importance we attach to concrete 
steps such as adoption of anti-money laundering legislation. 
 
11. (C) U.S. approval is invaluable politically in Paraguay 
and we should continue to ensure Duarte and his party don't 
take it for granted.  Department may wish to remind 
Ambassador Spalding of his earier assurances on Cabral, and 
point out USG concern over this case and what it says about 
GOP and Colorado willingness to fight corruption.  Post is 
not/not suggesting we reduce support at this time.  With 
Colorado internal elections comming and other elections to 
follow, however, the pressures against reform are mounting; 
the USG is one useful source of counter pressure. 
JOHNSON