US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV6385

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 006385 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, IS, ELECTIONS 2006, GOI INTERNAL 
SUBJECT: SHARON PICKS SHOWDOWN WITH LIKUD REBELS 
 
REF: TEL AVIV 6247 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Norman Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) Prime Minister Sharon brought dissension in Likud to 
a head November 7 when he knowingly pushed forward his 
package of Cabinet nominations to predictable defeat in the 
Knesset.  In a -- notably -- prepared speech to the Knesset 
after it voted down the nominations of Ehud Olmert, Roni 
Bar-On, and Ze'ev Boim, 60-54, Sharon blamed the eight Likud 
anti-disengagement "rebels" who have opposed him at every 
turn over the past year for "foiling a move...aimed at 
strengthening the Likud."  Observers speculate that, with an 
eye toward early elections, Sharon sought the doomed vote to 
cast the rebels -- a group that includes his arch-rival 
Binyamin Netanyahu -- as not worthy of Likud support.  After 
the vote, Sharon quickly convened an emergency Cabinet 
session to authorize moving the nominations of Olmert and of 
Labor Party MK Matan Vilna'i as Science Minister to a Knesset 
vote separate from those of Boim and Bar-On, resulting in 
their subsequent Knesset confirmation, 71-41 that same night. 
 (Note: Sharon was under pressure to move forward Olmert's 
nomination, since, as of November 9, Olmert's temporary 
tenure in that capacity would lapse and the government would 
be without a finance minister.  End note.) 
 
2.  (C) Rather than indicate that he would work toward any 
compromise proposal with the rebels, Sharon said late 
November 7 after the Knesset rejected his package nominations 
that the rebels' opposition to the nominations would result 
in "consequences."  The Likud rebels went on November 8 to 
threaten to oppose Sharon on the budget if he does not 
accommodate their demands, one of which reportedly is that he 
expand settlement construction in the West Bank.  Observers 
continue to speculate that the possible moves Sharon is 
considering include early elections and/or joining Likud's 
more moderate members with those of Labor and Shinui to 
create a new centrist party -- the so-called "big bang."  In 
a "boy who cried wolf" syndrome, however, threats by Sharon 
and his inner circles of early elections or of splitting 
Likud have reportedly lost credibility among the rebels. 
Minister-without-Portfolio Chaim Ramon of the Labor Party 
told the Ambassador November 8 that he believes Sharon is 
considering whether to go to early primaries in Likud or 
break with Likud to form a new party.  Whatever the case, 
Ramon predicted that the Likud rebels will continue to make 
demands on Sharon for their budget support, thereby driving 
Sharon to elections in the first half of 2006, rather than in 
November 2006 as scheduled.  If the Likud rebels vote with 
the opposition, as they did in the November 7 vote on the 
package of Cabinet nominations, Sharon's coalition dwindles 
to 59, two MKs less than an absolute majority.  While only a 
simple majority is needed to pass the budget, all 120 Knesset 
members typically participate in budget votes. 
 
3.  (C) Observers are divided on whether, given Sharon's 
current popularity, it would be in his interest to seek early 
elections.  Former Labor Party candidate for prime minister 
Amram Mitzna told Poloff November 3 that he could only 
speculate on what Sharon would do in the end, since "no one 
really knows what (Sharon) is up to."  He continued that 
given Sharon's current political strength, however, "it is 
best (for Sharon) to go to elections as soon as possible, as 
time will not serve him."  Echoing comments to the Ambassador 
by senior Sharon advisor Dov Weissglas, the November 4 
Jerusalem Post reported that several Sharon advisors, 
including Weissglas, have "reportedly told Sharon to go to 
elections as soon as possible...."   The article said that 
other advisors, including Sharon's son MK Omri Sharon, have 
suggested to Sharon that he "keep the government together, at 
least until the next crisis comes around." 
 
 
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