US embassy cable - 05HARARE1527

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001527 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF FOR B. NEULING 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, ASEC, ZI, Other Political Parties 
SUBJECT: NCA MARCHES, MADHUKU ARRESTED 
 
REF: A. HARARE 1512 
     B. HARARE 1509 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell for reasons 1.5 b/d 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) On November 7, National Constitutional Assembly (NCA) 
Chairperson, Lovemore Madhuku, told poloff that 
demonstrations planned for November 4 (reftel) had gone well. 
 As a result of NCA tactics and their own declining morale, 
police response to the demonstrations had been weak and fewer 
demonstrators had been arrested than in the past.  Madhuku 
said the GOZ was accusing NCA members of bombing a police 
post during the demonstrations, but the NCA believed security 
forces had staged the bombing to discredit the mass action. 
The NCA was planning to hold another demonstration next week. 
 In late breaking news, police arrested Madhuku on November 8 
and he is being held without charges.  End Summary. 
 
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NCA Calls Demonstrations a Success 
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2. (C) NCA Chair Lovemore Madhuku told poloff that NCA held 
demonstrations in Harare, Bulawayo, Mutare, Masvingo, and 
Gweru on November 4 to protest the creation of the Senate and 
to call for a new constitution.  Madhuku said that in Harare 
the protest had taken place at two times.  First, a core 
group of 150-200 people had participated in the morning, then 
a larger group of 300-400 had demonstrated in the afternoon. 
The idea was to mislead the police with the smaller 
demonstration in the morning so that they would be slower to 
react to the larger demonstration later in the day.  The 
demonstrations in other cities had attracted about 200-250 
participants each. 
 
3. (C) Madhuku said a total of 16 were arrested in Harare, 20 
in Mutare, and one in Bulawayo - fewer than were normally 
arrested.  Many of those had already been released.  Fourteen 
remained in custody in Harare and six in Mutare.  Madhuku 
said the NCA,s tactics were responsible for the relatively 
weak police response.  The police had been surprised by the 
second Harare demonstration and had been slow to react. 
 
4. (C) Madhuku added that even though the NCA had made no 
secret of the demonstration the police had not aggressively 
 
SIPDIS 
followed NCA activists, in stark contrast to past practice, 
and had therefore been relatively unprepared.  In addition, 
the police who had responded had been less confrontational 
than in the recent past.  Typically police would be present 
in large numbers in the expected area and immediately begin 
beating and arresting demonstrators.  This time police did 
not prevent the demonstration from beginning, and they only 
began beating and arresting participants after they had 
marched.  Madhuku said this had led to fewer arrests because 
the demonstrators, confident that they had achieved their 
goal, had run when they saw the police. 
 
5. (C) The government-sponsored press, including the Herald 
and the Sunday Mail newspapers reported that NCA members 
threw a gasoline bomb at a police post during the 
demonstrations.  Madhuku said that the bombing had occurred 
after the demonstrations and after the police had already 
arrested NCA demonstrators.  He suspected security agents 
were themselves responsible for the bombing in an attempt to 
discredit the demonstration. 
 
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More Demonstrations Planned 
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6. (C) Madhuku said NCA was planning another demonstration 
for sometime next week.  NCA officials were waiting to see 
the results of the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions 
demonstration scheduled for November 8 (septel).  Madhuku was 
particularly interested to see if the police reaction to the 
ZCTU event was similarly weak or if the press reporting on 
the bombing energized police.  He said more violence would be 
good because it would expose the police for the vicious 
people they were. 
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Update: Madhuku Arrested 
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7.  On November 8, the NCA released a statement saying that 
late on November 7 police had unsuccessfully attempted to 
arrest Madhuku, who had been out, at his home.  They had 
subsequently contacted him by phone and ordered Madhuku to 
turn himself in to Harare Central Police Station.  In a 
follow-up phone conversation, an NCA spokesperson told poloff 
that Madhuku had gone to the police station at 8 a.m., and 
police had held him there since without charges, although the 
NCA understood that the charges would be related to 
Saturday,s demonstration.  (N.B. The police are also 
reported to have arrested ZCTU Chairman Wellington Chibebe 
and 50 of his supporters on November 8 while they were 
conducting a protest march of their own.) 
 
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Comment 
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8. (C) The NCA demonstration would seem to have been a 
successful trial run for the series of mass actions planned 
by the opposition MDC and its civil society allies (reftels). 
 Madhuku generally overstates the size of his events but we 
had independent reports as well that it was larger than usual 
and that the police response was less forceful than usual. 
The NCA,s tactics, while clever, could be a less important 
part of the explanation for the police response.  The decline 
in police morale and efficiency brought on by the GOZ,s 
financial difficulties will inevitably begin to erode their 
ability to suppress dissent and we may have seen the first 
sign of this coming to pass.  Far from squelching the 
protests, Madhuku,s arrest along with that of Chibebe could 
very well help spark further demonstrations.  End Comment. 
DELL