US embassy cable - 05THEHAGUE3031

UNCLAS THE HAGUE 003031 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/UBI/REITER AND G/H. WATSON 
WHITE HOUSE FOR CEQ/CONNAUGHTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV, PREL, NL 
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/CLIMATE CHANGE: DUTCH PESSIMISTIC 
ABOUT MONTREAL CONFERENCE (C-TN5-01031) 
 
REF: A. STATE 194517 
 
     B. 2004 THE HAGUE 3233 
 
1.  Summary: While hoping for a "clear mandate" for devising 
a post-Kyoto climate initiative, Dutch environment officials 
are pessimistic about the Montreal UN Climate Change 
Conference (COP-11). They expect the U.S. and large 
developing countries to obstruct consensus, but say the GONL 
will work to achieve the best possible outcome using recent 
EU Environment Council conclusions as the basis for their 
negating position.  The GONL sees its closest allies in the 
talks as Norway and Sweden, as well as small island states 
with vulnerable coastlines.  Dutch climate minister Peter van 
Geel is a pragmatist who has been active in seeking practical 
climate change solutions with countries outside the Kyoto 
framework.  End Summary. 
 
2.  On November 1 econoff met with Henriette Bersee, Deputy 
Director of the Ministry of Environment's Climate Change 
Office to discuss Dutch expectations for the 28 November-9 
December UN Climate Change Conference (COP-11) in Montreal. 
Bersee said the GONL hoped the meeting would yield "political 
commitments," especially from the U.S., to help shape a 
post-Kyoto regime.  Acknowledging that China, India and 
Brazil should also be key participants in any future climate 
arrangement, she said the GONL and EU would work hard to draw 
these countries into meaningful deliberations.  She predicted 
negotiations in Montreal would be tough and feared the U.S. 
would hinder the meeting from generating a "clear mandate." 
 
3.  Bersee said the EU Environmental Council's October 2005 
conclusions would form the basis for the GONL's negotiating 
position.  In particular, she referenced the conclusions' 
call for "broadening participation" through "common but 
differentiated responsibilities and capabilities." Ideally, 
the GONL wanted a graduated approach to curbing emissions 
growth, with "relative targets" for developing countries and 
"absolute commitments," for developed countries.  However, 
she quickly added that the GONL recognized that CO2 caps are 
not on the table and said her government would work to build 
the best possible consensus. 
 
5.  Bersee said the GONL views the Nordics, especially Norway 
and Sweden, as their closest allies in the climate change 
debate.  Dutch climate positions, she added, are also 
resonating with small island states with vulnerable 
coastlines like the Netherlands. 
 
6.  The Dutch delegation to COP-11 will be led by Minister 
for Environment Peter van Geel.  Yvo de Boer, International 
Affairs Advisor, and Bersee will also attend, as will a 
representative from the ministries of Development, Foreign 
Affairs, Economic Affairs and Transport. 
 
7.  Comment:  While they publicly support caps of CO2 
emissions, Dutch officials have told embassy and Washington 
officials they understand economic concerns make post-2012 
emissions caps a non-starter. Environment Minister Peter van 
Geel is a pragmatist who has made an effort to work with the 
U.S. and key developing countries on climate change.  He 
traveled to Washington in November 2004 during the Dutch EU 
presidency to gain insights into U.S. climate positions (ref 
B), brought the Netherlands into the Carbon Sequestration 
Leadership Forum, and then worked to organize informal 
discussions between U.S. and EU environment ministers in 
March 2005. He and his staff are respected by their EU peers, 
are not bound by Kyoto dogma, and could help us achieve 
practical climate change solutions.  End comment. 
BLAKEMAN