US embassy cable - 05PORTAUPRINCE2766

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT AU PRINCE 002766 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR 
S/CRS 
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAR 
INR/IAA (BEN-YEHUDA) 
WHA/EX PLEASE PASS USOAS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, HA, MINUSTAH, Security Situation 
SUBJECT: RENE PREVAL ASKS FOR HELP WITH DISARMAMENT 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Timothy M. Carney for reasons 1.4 (B) 
and (D) 
 
1. (C)   SUMMARY.  In a meeting on November 2, ex-President 
and current Presidential hopeful Rene Preval told Charge that 
several gang leaders in Cite Soleil are "tired, afraid and 
looking for a way out."  According to Preval, up to six of 
these persons are prepared to pursue disarmament and 
demobilization in exchange for a way out of Cite Soleil. 
Preval speculated that this would not entail departing Haiti, 
but perhaps relocation to the interior.  Preval relayed the 
same message to SRSG Valdes, and asked for guarantees that 
USAID and MINUSTAH would be prepared to fill the vaccuum 
without violence.  He seeks to end the current impasse which 
has trapped the general population between the ganglords and 
MINUSTAH, and he fears that any new operations by MINUSTAH 
will produce disastrous casualties in the close, crumbling 
neighborhood.  Preval asked that pressure be put on the 
highest levels of the interim government to pursue this 
option.  Additionally, Preval weighed in on the candidacy of 
Dumarsais Simeus, stating that his "great fear" is that a 
Simeus victory will lead to violence.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (C)   Charge met with Rene Preval, former President of 
Haiti and current Presidential front runner, to discuss 
disarmament at Preval's request on November 2.  Charge began 
the meeting by congratulating Preval on his LESPWA (Hope 
Platform) party's fortuitous placement as number one on the 
ballot.  Preval stated that this was the "hand of God." 
 
3. (C)   Preval then told Charge that he requested the 
meeting not to discuss the elections but to discuss 
disarmament in Cite Soleil.  He said that several of the 
young gang leaders in the area wish to lay down their arms. 
He described a situation in which the general populace is 
trapped in the middle between equally distasteful aggressors, 
the ganglords on one side and MINUSTAH on the other.  He 
added to this that there are those who profit from the chaos: 
narcotraffickers, criminals, and even some politicians.  He 
said that the people of Cite Soleil associate violence with 
MINUSTAH as much as the ganglords, and he asked that MINUSTAH 
and the USG engage in Cite Soleil non-violently.  Preval 
stated that while a successful electoral registration is 
ongoing, those leaders in Cite Soleil who support elections 
have been specifically threatened and fear for their safety. 
 
4. (C)   While the situation remains fairly calm in Cite 
Soleil, Preval stated that the weapons are still there and 
the violence could return at any point.  He stated that 
several of the gang leaders were "tired, afraid, and looking 
for a way out."  He said that armed men in Cite Soleil feared 
not only MINUSTAH but also legitimate and crooked elements of 
the HNP, as well as the incessant inter-gang turf wars. 
Charge asked Preval if he had told SRSG Valdes about this, 
and Preval said that he had on the morning of 2 November. 
However, he cautioned that MINUSTAH could not do much to 
effect a disarmament without being ridiculed as collaborators 
by an unsympathetic interim government, national police, and 
political class.  He therefore asked that pressure be put on 
the highest levels of the interim government to instruct the 
police to pursue disarmament. 
 
5. (C)   Charge responded that this was an important problem 
and one worth exploring.  He said that he would confer with 
Valdes and seek to advance the issue.  He also assured Preval 
that the USG had resources in place to rapidly bring jobs and 
social programs online in Cite Soleil should conditions be 
right.  Charge stated that the interim government should be 
doing whatever possible to ensure that the elections take 
place with as little violence as possible. 
 
6. (C)   Preval stated that at least five or six known gang 
leaders were looking for a truce, but they needed a way out. 
He compared them to dogs trapped in a room together, saying, 
"if a vicious dog is trapped in your house, you open a door." 
 He acknowledged the practical impossibility of foisting such 
persons on a foreign country, but said it might be possible 
to simply relocate them to the provincial capitals.  The 
Charge asked about who would fill the power vaccuum left by 
the flight of these leaders, and Preval responded that if 
MINUSTAH and USAID could move in quickly and non-violently, 
the gang violence would likely die down. 
 
7. (C)   On elections, Preval was pessimistic about meeting 
the February 7 target.  He said, "I am very concerned, if the 
CEP cannot even resolve little problems.  It is not hard to 
put out a candidate list." 
 
8. (C)   On Dumarsais Simeus, Preval echoed what has become a 
familiar sentiment among the Haitian political class, each of 
whom "fear" that violence will result if the President is 
"mal elu" (wrongfully elected).  Preval said he thinks the 
Presidency should be set aside from the legislature in terms 
of importance.  He noted that the country will survive if a 
few legislative races are contested, but a contested 
Presidential election will be disastrous.  When the Charge 
asked him if the Constitution ought be amended to reflect the 
important role of the diaspora, Preval concurred and went far 
beyond that, saying that the Constitution needed a complete 
rewrite as well.  However, he refused to concede that Simeus 
was part of the diaspora, saying "he is not Haitian."  He 
said that the fight over Simeus was wasting precious time, 
and it was his "great fear" that Simeus' candidacy would lead 
to violence. 
 
9. (C)   COMMENT.  MINUSTAH is wary of engaging with gang 
leaders, as the political class has strongly criticized such 
engagement in the past.  However, Preval carries a level of 
credibility that could advance disarmament while 
simultaneously yielding significant electoral reward for him. 
 Cite Soleil leader Rene Monplaisir is now a vocal supporter 
of Preval, and he led over a thousand people in a pro-Preval 
demonstration on November 3.  Preval clearly seeks to take 
credit for eliminating gang violence in the area. 
 
10. (C)   The galling irony of the political class' criticism 
of Simeus is that an overwhelming number of them are also 
dual nationals or at least hold foreign residence. 
Nevertheless, it is clear that the same group of Haitian 
leaders that united to create the interim government are 
equally united in opposition to Simeus' candidacy, regardless 
of what appears to be his growing popularity among average 
Haitians.  END COMMENT. 
CARNEY