US embassy cable - 05PORTAUPRINCE2765

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT AU PRINCE 002765 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR 
S/CRS 
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAR 
INR/IAA (BEN-YEHUDA) 
WHA/EX PLEASE PASS USOAS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, HA, Elections 
SUBJECT: FORMER PRESIDENT LESLIE MANIGAT WAITING FOR CALL 
 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Timothy M. Carney for reasons 1.4 (B) 
and (D) 
 
1. (C)   SUMMARY:  In a meeting on October 31, former 
President Leslie Manigat told Charge that he is a natural 
consensus candidate around whom numerous parties will rally 
to counter what will likely be a strong showing from fellow 
ex-President Rene Preval.  Manigat said that FUSION and OPL 
are strong, well organized parties, but their presidential 
candidates, Serge Gilles and Paul Denis respectively, are not 
"Presidential."  He appeared content to wait for these 
parties to call him out of retirement.  Manigat was 
pessimistic about electoral progress and he spoke candidly on 
the prospects of democracy in Haiti.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (C)   On October 31, Manigat welcomed Charge to his 
palatial home/campaign headquarters in La Plaine, a suburban 
haven north of Port-au-Prince that has been overtaken by the 
ever-expanding shantytowns north and west of Cite Soleil. 
Manigat, who was President in 1988 for four months of the 
post-Duvalier era, and his wife/campaign manager, Myrlande, 
are aged veterans and astute observers of the Haitian 
political scene. 
 
Electoral Pitfalls --- 
 
3. (C)   Manigat told Charge that the majority of Haitians do 
not see how elections can take place.  Further, he stated 
that the transition will be extremely difficult for the 
winner, who will have to assemble a new cabinet and 
administration in a matter of days after the second round. 
He blamed the current situation on three factors: the gross 
incompetence of the CEP, the manipulation of the electoral 
process by the political class, and machinations against 
elections by those who profit from the anarchy.  Charge 
replied that there are certainly those in the interim 
government who wish to remain in power, those in Haiti who 
benefit from the current legitimacy vacuum, and plenty of 
incompetence to go around.  Nevertheless, Manigat believes 
that Haiti can meet the December 18 first round date, but he 
is worried that Haitian peasants will not make the numerous 
lengthy trips necessary to pick up their registration cards 
and vote in the two electoral rounds.  He said, "clearly, 
election conditions will not be ideal." 
 
4. (C)   Charge asked Manigat about the State Commission on 
the Nationality of Candidates (CENC) and how it would affect 
the publication of the candidate lists.  Manigat responded 
that this issue was only one of several which basically 
boiled down to one question: how to make the elections 
acceptable.  He stated that there was a need to make the 
elections both psychologically and practically acceptable, 
saying "the population can just as easily accept a severely 
flawed election as condemn a perfect one.  It all depends on 
the circumstances."  In his view the key was to reduce the 
number of significant parties to around seven, with seven 
heavyweight presidential candidates, all of whom would commit 
to accept the results of the elections, no matter what.  He 
stated that the acceptance of the result by major candidates 
would be crucial in order to nullify what he called the 
"absolute certainty that other, lesser candidates will cry 
foul." 
 
Retire the Supreme Court --- 
 
5. (C)   Charge then asked Manigat what would be the role of 
the Court of Cassation (Haitian supreme court), now that the 
interim government had removed it from the electoral appeal 
process.  Manigat replied that, despite the decree removing 
the Court of Cassation from the process, any serious appeal 
would inevitably wind up before the Court.  Referring to a 
tactic of fellow post-Duvalier President Ertha Truillot, he 
stated that one way to avoid this would be for the President 
to forcibly retire three of the justices, eliminating a 
quorum and rendering the Court inoperative. 
 
Haiti "Not A Democracy" --- 
 
6. (C)   On the prospect of progress in Haiti, Manigat was 
candid.  He said that Haiti has two problems, money and a 
lack of democracy.  According to him, Haiti is not a 
democracy, because Haiti has no democrats.  He said, "the 
political class and elite are not democratic.  They 
fraudulently manipulate the electoral process to secure power 
by installing their loyalists in the electoral offices and 
polling places."  He said that the only motivation of the 
political class is power.  He said that the Haitian people as 
a whole are changing, but that intolerance is still the most 
prevalent attitude, "Aristide or death, Duvalier or death, 
etc."  The Charge noted that at times it seems that vengeance 
is the primary motivation of the political class, and Manigat 
agreed saying, "With 50 percent of the population illiterate, 
with no civic development and no education, how can Haiti be 
democratic?"  He described Haiti as a country that ignores 
impending catastrophe until the absolute last minute, then 
improvises. 
7. (C)   Manigat believes that the traditional power 
structure still has control in Haiti, despite progressive and 
democratic advances of the past two decades.  However, he 
feels that this election might be the opportunity to 
definitively break with the old structure of ruling elite and 
impoverished masses. 
 
Preval, Simeus, Bazin, Aristide --- 
 
8. (C)   Charge asked Manigat whether he would go it alone or 
seek political alliances, and whether he is concerned about 
fellow ex-President Rene Preval.  Manigat stated that he must 
publicly go it alone while preparing to build a coalition. 
He stated that Paul Denis of OPL and Serge Gilles of FUSION 
were not sufficiently "presidential" to win for their 
respective parties, and he envisioned an alliance with him 
atop the ballot. 
 
9. (C)   Concerning Preval, Manigat did not believe that the 
rest of the field would allow Preval to get to the second 
round.  He believes that a strong anti-Preval movement exists 
among FUSION, OPL, the Group of 184 and others who would 
combine to thwart his campaign in the first round.  He said 
that it is important that Preval not make it to the second 
round.  However, he acknowledged that should an alliance 
between Preval, Bazin and Simeus emerge, it would be 
unstoppable.  The Charge posited that Aristide might 
intervene to break up such an alliance, but Manigat 
disagreed, stating that Aristide knows his best chance for 
returning to Haiti lies with a Preval presidency. 
 
10. (C)   COMMENT.  Manigat's candor was refreshing, if 
sobering.  He may give himself too much credit if he thinks 
Paul Denis, Serge Gilles and the Group of 184 will come 
running to him.  Independent presidential candidate Charles 
Henri Baker has claimed the same groups will support him. 
Nevertheless, Manigat enjoys favorable public opinion, and he 
was the second most popular politician behind Aristide in a 
2004 Haitian poll.  Critics say he is too old.  END COMMENT. 
CARNEY