US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4508

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 004508 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, TW 
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION SCENESETTER:  ILAN COUNTY 
 
REF: TAIPEI 2704 
 
Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan, Reason(s): 
1.4 (B/D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary.  The race for Ilan County Magistrate is one 
of the tightest of the December 3 city/county elections and 
is being closely watched as an indicator of ruling Democratic 
Progressive Party (DPP) staying power in northern Taiwan vs. 
the opposition Kuomintang's (KMT) growing momentum.  DPP's 
Chen Ting-nan, who resigned as Minister of Justice, is pitted 
in a tight race with KMT's incumbent Ilan City Mayor Lu 
Kuo-hua, with 30-40 percent of voters still undecided.  Ilan 
DPP and KMT political leaders told AIT that the extensive 
media coverage of scandals involving senior DPP and 
government officials appears to be negatively affecting DPP 
chances in the coming election.  On the other hand, the 
so-called "Ma Ying-jeou effect," for reasons unique to Ilan, 
is not playing a significant role in the Ilan Magistrate 
race.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (C) Both DPP and KMT have identified Ilan as a key race 
in the December 3 election.  After 24 straight years of DPP 
control, signs of a possible change of government in Ilan 
County, sometimes called "cradle of the DPP," could be a 
major factor in determining which party is perceived as 
winning the December 3 election, itself widely seen as a 
bellwether on the road to 2007 legislative and 2008 
presidential elections.  Even though the campaign officially 
starts November 22, KMT Ilan County Chairman Lin Cheng-yen 
told AIT that Ilan candidates began actively campaigning six 
months ago, when Chen Ting-nan resigned as Minister of 
Justice. 
 
Ilan, A Mini-Taiwan 
------------------- 
 
3.  (U) Ilan County itself is something of a microcosm of 
Taiwan, right down to the north-south Blue-Green split along 
the banks of a river.  Island-wide the Chuoshui River 
separating Changhua and Yunlin Counties is generally seen as 
the demarcation between the Blue-leaning north and the 
Green-leaning south, with the DPP and the KMT calling for 
their "troops" to cross the Chuoshui and seize territory to 
the north and south, respectively.  In Ilan, this divide is 
mirrored by the Yanglan River, which flows eastward into the 
Pacific Ocean and demarcates Blue-leaning northern Ilan from 
Green-leaning southern Ilan.  DPP Chen Ting-nan's campaign 
manager You Chen-liang told AIT that in Lotung Town and the 
southern half of the Yanglan Plain (the other three fourths 
of Ilan County are sparsely-populated mountains) there are 
more business people who tend to support pan-green 
candidates, while voters in Ilan and Toucheng cities in the 
north are more civil servants and teachers who tend to 
support pan-blue candidates. 
 
4.   (C) Ilan has for many years voted Green in island-wide 
elections, with around 55 percent of voters supporting 
pan-Green candidates.  This tendency, however, reverses in 
local elections with around 55 percent of voters supporting 
pan-Blue candidates because, KMT Chairman Lin and DPP Acting 
Chairwoman Lin Hsiu-yun separately told AIT, at the local 
level Ilan voters vote according to personal relations which, 
given the KMT's deeper organizational roots, means pan-Blue. 
Only one of the 12 towns (Tungshan) that will elect new 
mayors in the December 3 "three-in-one" election has a DPP 
Mayor.  The KMT's traditional election model of disseminating 
large sums of money is changing, Liu said, because the KMT 
has fallen on hard economic times and because younger voters 
look with disfavor on this style of campaigning.  This 
distaste is reflected in the substantially higher levels of 
support for DPP candidate Chen Ting-nan among the 20-29 year 
age bracket. 
 
Close Race 
---------- 
 
5.  (C) The three public opinion polls to date on the Ilan 
Magistrate election (by Blue-leaning United Daily News-UDN 
and Era polling groups) show a tight race between DPP's Chen 
Ting-nan and KMT's Lu Kuo-hua.  There are, however, nascent 
signs of an emerging gap.  Whereas Chen and Lu started off in 
late September in a dead heat, 28 to 29 percent respectively, 
this moved to 27 and 33 percent by early October, then to 24 
and 36 percent in an October 31 UDN poll.  Separately, the 
KMT told AIT it has conducted three polls which show Lu in 
the lead, but with 30-40 percent of voters still undecided. 
 
6.  (C) On the other hand, DPP Acting Chairwoman Lin told AIT 
that DPP's internal polls show the magistrate race still very 
close.  DPP polls, she argued, are more objective than those 
of either the blue-leaning media or the KMT, because they are 
carried out by Ilan University students who do not indicate 
any political persuasion to respondents.  Incumbent DPP 
Magistrate Liu Shou-cheng, she noted, had suffered low poll 
ratings when he ran for office, but came out on top on 
election day.  DPP candidate Chen's campaign manager, You 
Chen-liang, explained that Chen is more popular among people 
with lower educational levels and among college students.  In 
an odd slip, however, You told AIT that older Ilan voters are 
less supportive of Chen "because they know him so well." 
 
Issues at Stake 
--------------- 
 
7.  (C) The KMT is playing up DPP Chen Ting-nan's age (63) 
and criticizing his return to Ilan to run for his old post 
(he was Ilan Magistrate 1981-89) after having served with the 
Central Government for so many years.  Chen's campaign 
manager You Chen-liang, however, insisted that age is not a 
problem, as shown by younger voters' preference for Chen. 
Lu's campaign manager (and KMT legislator) Lin Chien-jung 
told AIT that the KMT intends to focus on unemployment 
problems and the drop in Ilan's population under DPP 
leadership due to DPP environmental protection policies that 
have driven many industries out of Ilan.  The KMT is also 
trying to capitalize on last summer's fishing dispute with 
Japan (reftel), since most of the fishermen involved are from 
Ilan.  Lin stated that KMT candidate Lu has been fighting 
alongside Ilan fishermen for a long time and has been pushing 
for a resolution of Taiwan's fishing dispute with Japan. 
DPP's You countered that it was Chen Ting-nan who persuaded 
the Coast Guard to dispatch ships to protect Ilan fishermen. 
Local Pan-Blue politicians, he charged, had manipulated the 
fishing dispute with Japan for political reasons. 
 
Influence of "Ma Ying-jeou Effect" 
---------------------------------- 
 
8.  (C) KMT candidate Lu Kuo-hua hopes to tap into the 
vaunted "Ma Ying-jeou effect" to infuse a sense of reform and 
integrity into his campaign to contrast with six weeks of 
ruling DPP scandals.  Lu's campaign manager Lin told AIT that 
Ma had visited Ilan on October 23 and will probably visit two 
or three times in November at Lu's request to help bolster 
Lu's campaign.  In Ilan County, however, the "Ma Ying-jeou 
effect" has been somewhat neutralized by tensions between 
Ilan County, which wants the Taipei-Ilan expressway opened 
quickly, and Ma Ying-jeou who, as Taipei City Mayor, is 
trying to postpone the opening to protect Taipei's water 
reservoir near the new expressway.  KMT Lu's campaign manager 
Lin acknowledged to AIT that the "Ma Ying-jeou effect" is not 
having much impact in Ilan because of popular resentment over 
Ma's opposition to early opening of the expressway. 
 
9.  (C) To the contrary, the DPP in Ilan is trying to make Ma 
Ying-jeou himself a campaign issue.  DPP Chen Ting-nan's 
campaign manager You and County Chairwoman Liu separately 
told AIT that Ma's opposition to early opening of the 
expressway on the pretext of environmental protection could 
hurt the KMT campaign in Ilan.  KMT candidate Lu Kuo-hua told 
AIT that he did not expect the expressway issue to affect the 
outcome of the election, despite the DPP's effort to play up 
the issue to divert public attention from its own involvement 
in corruption cases.  KMT Chairman Lin Cheng-yen disagreed, 
arguing that Ma's charisma will, in fact, help the KMT win 
votes even in Ilan.  Never has a KMT leader received such an 
ebullient welcome from Ilan people, he explained, as Ma did 
during his October 23 visit, when many people turned out of 
their houses and offices to greet Ma in the streets. 
 
Corruption and Scandal 
---------------------- 
 
10.  (C) On the other hand, Ilan DPP leaders hope President 
Chen's vigorous island-wide campaign will boost DPP 
candidates in Ilan.  Even though the Kaohsiung MRT scandal 
has damaged the DPP's image, several told AIT, they believe 
the DPP's decision to expel former Presidential Counselor 
Chen Che-nan will convince voters that the DPP is the party 
that knows how to evaluate and reform itself.  KMT Lu's 
campaign manager Lin, however, told AIT that while Ma's 
charisma might not be a major factor in Ilan County, the DPP 
scandals most certainly would be and this would push voters 
toward the KMT out of dissatisfaction with the existing 
political environment.  Lin argued that President Chen 
Shui-bian's visit to Ilan the next day (November 5) to 
campaign for Chen Ting-nan would not necessarily benefit 
Chen, and might even backfire, because of the scandals and 
the president's low approval ratings. 
 
11.  (C) The DPP is trying to turn the corruption issue to 
its own advantage.  DPP candidate Chen's campaign manager You 
Chen-liang told AIT that vote-buying is still a problem in 
Ilan.  Law enforcement authorities, he noted cryptically, 
have collected much evidence that KMT candidates are buying 
votes in the three-in-one elections.  The KMT has been 
counting on buying votes for its candidates, You continued, 
while the Ilan DPP has won voter confidence with its 
unwavering determination to pursue reforms and 
democratization.  DPP Chairwoman Lin expressed dismay over 
the effort by some younger DPP leaders to launch a "New DPP 
movement" because, she argued, "reform is the common 
aspiration of all DPP members, not just some young people. 
 
Note on the Rest of the "Three-in-One" Election 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
12.  (C) In addition to the county magistrate election on 
December 3, the "three-in-one" elections also include the 
34-seat county council and the 12 town mayors.   DPP 
Chairwoman Liu told AIT that while only one of the 12 
incumbent mayors is DPP, the party has nominated 9 candidates 
and is hoping to win in Ilan City, Tungshan Township and 
Toucheng Township, based on the DPP's internal opinion polls. 
 KMT leaders, on the other hand, told AIT they are confident 
of winning 7 seats and possibly another 3, leaving one each 
for DPP and PFP.  In the county council election, DPP 
expressed confidence in winning 15 of the 34 seats (2 more 
seats than it now holds), and KMT expects to win 15 which, 
with a probable 2 seats for the PFP, will give the pan-Blue 
alliance a council majority. 
Keegan