US embassy cable - 05BOGOTA10497

UNCLAS BOGOTA 010497 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, CO 
SUBJECT: CONSTITUTIONAL COURT RULING EXPECTED NOVEMBER 11 
ON GUARANTEES LAW 
 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  Colombia's Constitutional Court is expected to rule 
Friday, November 11 on the Electoral Guarantees law, which 
sets out the presidential campaign "rules of the game" for 
incumbents seeking second terms.  A leading weekly newspaper, 
which accurately predicted the Court's recent reelection 
decision a month before it was issued, reported November 5 
that the Court would uphold the Gurantees law by a vote of at 
least 6-3; the paper's sources suggested the vote could be as 
high as 8-1.  Such a decision would be the final green light 
President Uribe needs to run again in 2006.  End summary. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Court Ruling Expected November 11 
--------------------------------- 
 
2.  Court president Manuel Jose Cepeda said when announcing 
the Court's reelection decsision October 19 that he expected 
a ruling on the Electoral Guarantees law by November 11; 
commentators, quoting Court sources, have reinforced Cepeda's 
statement in recent days.  The Court has various options 
available to it: uphold the law; reject it as 
unconstitutional; return it to the legislature for revisions; 
or interpret it in a way that essentially rewrites the text 
to ensure as level a playing field as possible for candidates 
running against an incumbent president. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Attorney General Strongly Opposed 
--------------------------------- 
 
3.  Attorney General (Procurador General de la Nacion) 
Edgardo Maya argued in a written submission to the Court that 
the law suffered from a large number of defects, some of a 
constitutional nature.  He suggested the Court declare 
certain sections of the law unconstitutional and return the 
law to the legislature to correct a larger number of 
"curable" deficiencies.  The Court largely ignored Maya's 
submission against reelection in the run-up to its October 19 
decision in favor. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Leading Weekly Predicts Court Will Uphold Law 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
4.  The weekly "El Espectador" newspaper predicted November 5 
that the Court would rule by a vote of at least 6-3 that the 
law was constitutional.  The paper suggested the Court would 
address the law's substance and essentially interpret unclear 
sections in a manner favorable to candidates challenging an 
incumbent president, thus avoiding the need to return the law 
to the legislature for additional work (which could prove 
awkward for reasons of timing).  The paper, which accurately 
predicted the Court's October 19 reelection decision, said 
two judges that it counts as negative votes could vote with 
the majority, which would result in an 8-1 decision to uphold 
the law.  Such a ruling would be the final green light Uribe 
needs to put his name on the ballot for the May 2006 
presidential race. 
 
5. COMMENT: Most legal analysts and political pundits assume 
a favorable decision.  While likely, the Court has made 
surprising decisions in the past.  As in the days prior to 
the decision on reelection, Court sources remain tight-lipped 
about a final outcome. 
WOOD