US embassy cable - 91PRETORIA4652

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 04652 
 
CAPE TOWN FOR ALSO EMBASSY 
 
E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR 
TAGS: PINR, SF, ZA 
SUBJECT: THE ANC'S THABO MBEKI AND CHRIS HANI 
 
REF:  STATE 67418 
 
1.  CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. 
 
2.  WE APPRECIATE OPPORTUNITY TO RESPOND TO QUESTIONS IN 
REFTEL.  WE SHOULD SAY UP FRONT THAT WE DO NOT INTERACT 
MUCH WITH CHRIS HANI, WHO PREFERS TO LEAVE DIPLOMATIC 
CONTACTS TO OTHERS.  NOR DO WE OFTEN SEE MBEKI AND HANI 
TOGETHER, EXCEPT FOR THE OCCASIONAL ASSEMBLAGE OF NEC 
MEMBERS ON SOME PUBLIC PLATFORM.  WE HAVE NOT HEARD EITHER 
MAN REFER IN ANY WAY TO THE OTHER, NOR HAVE WE SEEN THE 
TWO FRATERNIZING AT THE HECTIC ANC HEADQUARTERS OR 
ELSEWHERE.  WE BELIEVE, HOWEVER, THAT BOTH MEN ARE 
EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG PERSONALITIES WITHIN THE ORGANIZATION 
AND AMONG THE TOP FEW "MOVERS AND SHAKERS" IN THE 
LEADERSHIP. 
 
3.  IF MBEKI AND HANI (BOTH 48) STILL HAVE A CLOSE 
FRIENDSHIP, WE WOULD BE SURPRISED.  THOUGH CONTEMPORARIES 
FROM TRANSKEI, MANY OTHER FACTORS MILITATE AGAINST A 
SMOOTH RELATIONSHIP, NOT LEAST THEIR DIVERGENT FUNCTIONS 
WITHIN THE ANC.  NOR COULD EITHER OF THEM BE OBLIVIOUS TO 
THE INTENSE PUBLIC SPECULATION -- WHICH IS ALREADY GEARING 
UP AGAIN IN ANTICIPATION OF THE JUNE ANC ELECTIONS -- OVER 
WHICH OF THE TWO WILL ONE DAY MOVE INTO THE PREMIER 
POSITION.  WHILE THE HANI-MBEKI LINK MAY NOT BE WARM, WE 
SUSPECT BOTH MEN REALIZE THE OVERRIDING NEED TO MANAGE THE 
RELATIONSHIP, FOR NOW AT LEAST, FOR THE SAKE OF THE 
ORGANIZATION. 
 
4.  MBEKI IS THE CONSUMMATE DIPLOMAT WHO IS BELIEVED TO BE 
LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR CHOREOGRAPHING THE OVERALL POLICY 
SHIFT AWAY FROM THE ARMED STRUGGLE TO NEGOTIATIONS IN 
RECENT YEARS.  HE IS RUMORED TO BE AMONG THE FIRST AND 
MOST PERSUASIVE NEC MEMBERS TO ARGUE IN FAVOR OF 
SUSPENDING ARMED ACTIONS LAST AUGUST.  IN MAKING HIS 
ARGUMENTS, MBEKI NO DOUBT HAD TO MARSHAL CRITICAL 
ASSESSMENTS OF THE EFFICACY OF THE ARMED STRUGGLE.  HANI 
WOULD LIKELY HAVE VIEWED SUCH REMARKS AS BORDERING ON 
CRITICISM OF HIS OWN EFFORTS AND ACCOMPLISHMENTS. 
 
5.  WHILE HANI NO DOUBT SUPPORTS OFFICIAL ANC POLICY, HE 
SKIRTS VERY CLOSE TO THE EDGES WHEN IT COMES TO THE ROLE 
OF UMKHONTO WE SIZWE (MK).  MANY OF HIS PUBLIC REMARKS, 
WHICH THE SAG CONSIDERS INFLAMMATORY AND CONTRARY TO THE 
SPIRIT OF ANC-SAG AGREEMENTS, COULD ONLY COMPLICATE 
THABO'S JOB OF MOVING TALKS FORWARD EXPEDITIOUSLY.  HANI'S 
HANDLING OF THE ARMED ACTIONS WORKING GROUP, WHICH HE 
CHAIRED, LEFT MUCH TO BE DESIRED -- THOUGH, GRANTED, HE 
HAD A VERY DIFFICULT TASK.  HANI FAILED TO SHOW UP FOR 
SOME JOINT WORKING GROUP MEETINGS, EVEN AFTER HIS DISPUTED 
INDEMNITY STATUS WAS RESOLVED.  HIS ANC COLLEAGUES WERE 
SOMETIMES AT A LOSS TO EXPLAIN HIS ABSENCE TO US.  MBEKI 
WOULD REGARD SUCH BEHAVIOR AS IRRESPONSIBLE AND DAMAGING 
TO THE OVERALL NEGOTIATIONS STRATEGY. 
 
6.  TWO POLITICAL STYLES COULD HARDLY DIFFER MORE THAN 
MBEKI'S AND HANI'S.  MBEKI TAKES A DISPASSIONATE, REASONED 
APPROACH TO ISSUES WHICH HE PRESENTS IN UNDERSTATED 
TERMS.  HIS AUTHORITY TO DEAL WITH SAG OFFICIALS, CAPTAINS 
OF INDUSTRY, WHITE SOUTH AFRICAN OPINION LEADERS, FOREIGN 
ENVOYS, ETC. IS SECOND ONLY TO MANDELA'S.  WHEN THE DEPUTY 
PRESIDENT TRAVELS ABROAD WITHOUT MBEKI, THE LATTER APPEARS 
TO BE IN CHARGE OF ISSUES RELATING TO THE NEGOTIATIONS. 
MANDELA WILL OFTEN PHONE MBEKI FROM OVERSEAS TO CHECK ON 
DEVELOPMENTS. 
 
7.  MBEKI DOES NOT DEVOTE MUCH OF HIS TIME TO STUMPING 
AMONG THE BLACK POPULATION.  HE RARELY FEATURES AT MASS 
RALLIES AND DOES NOT, INSOFAR AS WE CAN TELL, ATTEMPT TO 
CULTIVATE A CONSTITUENCY IN HIS HOME AREA (TRANSKEI) OR 
ANYWHERE ELSE.  SOME OBSERVERS BELIEVE MBEKI'S FAILURE TO 
BUILD GRASSROOTS POLITICAL SUPPORT DAMAGES HIS APPEAL WITH 
THE MASSES AND COULD HURT HIM IN HIS EVENTUAL BID FOR THE 
TOP JOB (BUT WE ARE NOT CONVINCED).  WE HAVE HEARD LOWER 
LEVEL ANC OFFICIALS REMARK THAT MBEKI'S ASSOCIATION WITH 
EFFORTS TO SOFTEN THE ANC SANCTIONS POSITION AT THE 
DECEMBER CONSULTATIVE CONFERENCE HAS HURT HIM WITH THE 
PARTY RANK AND FILE. 
 
8.  HANI IS MORE A MAN OF THE PEOPLE.  HE GENERALLY STAYS 
OUT OF THE NEGOTIATING PROCESS (EXCEPT AS CHAIR OF THE 
ARMED ACTIONS WORKING GROUP WHERE HE REPORTEDLY DOES A 
GOOD JOB WHEN HE PARTICIPATES).  HE ESCHEWS CONTACTS WITH 
DIPLOMATS, JOURNALISTS, BUSINESSMEN ETC., YET APPEARS 
OFTEN ON PUBLIC PLATFORMS IN THE TOWNSHIPS WEARING 
QUASI-COMBAT FATIGUES AND DELIVERING FIERY SPEECHES THAT 
AROUSE AND DELIGHT THE AUDIENCE.  HANI MAY WELL CULTIVATE 
THIS RADICAL IMAGE TO SOME EXTENT, AND WITTINGLY ALLOW 
HIMSELF TO BE USED BY THE ANC AS A FOIL AGAINST THE PAC'S 
EFFORT TO WIN THE SOUL OF THE TOWNSHIP YOUTH. 
 
9.  HANI SPENDS ALOT OF TIME IN TRANSKEI, HIS BIRTHPLACE, 
WHERE WITH GENERAL HOLOMISA'S PERMISSION HE RESIDES IN THE 
NOW-VACATED PRIME MINISTER'S RESIDENCE AND OFTEN ADDRESSES 
CROWDS THERE.  HIS REPEATED REFERENCES TO MK AND ITS ROLE 
IN KEEPING THE SAG HONEST ENDEAR HIM TO THE MORE RADICAL 
ELEMENTS OF THE MOVEMENT.  HANI WAS SELECTED TO DELIVER 
THE HARD-HITTING GENERAL RESOLUTION AT THE DECEMBER 
CONSULTATIVE CONFERENCE, WHERE THE RANK AND FILE PRIVATELY 
BLASTED THE LEADERSHIP FOR SUSPENDING THE ARMED STRUGGLE 
WITHOUT GETTING MUCH IN RETURN FROM THE SAG. 
 
10.  HANI'S UNDERGROUND WORK IN THE COUNTRY, HIS ALLEGED 
PARTICIPATION IN COMBAT ALONGSIDE ZAPU AGAINST SMITH'S 
RHODESIAN ARMY, AND HIS NARROW ESCAPE FROM MORE THAN ONE 
ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT HAVE TAKEN ON LEGENDARY PROPORTIONS 
IN THE TOWNSHIPS.  AGAIN, MANY OBSERVERS BELIEVE THAT HANI 
WOULD TROUNCE MBEKI IF THERE WERE A POPULAR VOTE AMONG ANC 
SUPPORTERS.  THE MEDIA HERE SOMETIMES SUGGESTS HANI IS 
UNABASHEDLY PROMOTING HIS OWN ASCENT TO ANC LEADERSHIP, 
BUT HOLOMISA -- WHO KNOWS HANI WELL -- SCOFFS AT 
ALLEGATIONS THAT HANI IS POWER-HUNGRY.  HOLOMISA BELIEVES 
HANI'S APPOINTMENT TO THE SACP'S INTERNAL LEADERSHIP GROUP 
VIRTUALLY RULES HIM OUT OF CONTENTION FOR THE TOP ANC 
POSITION.  THE LEADERSHIP OF THE ANC-SACP ALLIANCE, 
HOLOMISA REASONS, WILL NEVER GO TO AN OFFICIAL FROM THE 
SMALLER PARTY (I.E., THE SACP), AND HANI MUST HAVE 
REALIZED THIS FACT WHEN HE ACCEPTED HIS SACP POSITION LAST 
YEAR. 
 
11.  MBEKI IS SAID TO HAVE A SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP WITH ANC 
PRESIDENT OLIVER TAMBO, WHO MADE THABO HIS POLITICAL 
SECRETARY IN 1978.  WE HAVE NOT, HOWEVER, OBSERVED ANY 
PARTICULAR WARMTH IN THE MBEKI-MANDELA RELATIONSHIP, BUT 
CLEARLY MANDELA HAS ENTRUSTED A GREAT DEAL TO THABO.  HANI 
DOES STAY AT THE MANDELA RESIDENCE WHEN HE IS IN THIS 
AREA, BUT WE BELIEVE THIS PRIMARILY REFLECTS THE FACT THAT 
HE IS A FAVORITE OF WINNIE'S.  HE FREQUENTLY JOINS HER ON 
THE PLATFORM AT MASS RALLIES WHERE BOTH ARE ASKED TO 
SPEAK, AND HE OFTEN ACCOMPANIES HER TO TRIAL IN 
JOHANNESBURG. 
 
12.  BOTH HANI AND MBEKI ARE UNIVERSITY EDUCATED WITH AN 
INTELLECTUAL BENT AND HAVE UNDERGONE MILITARY TRAINING. 
SAG OFFICIALS HAVE REMARKED PARTICULARLY ON HANI'S ABILITY 
TO DEBATE THE FINE POINTS OF THE CLASSICS.  THE LATEST 
"WHO'S WHO" BY SHELAGH GASTROW NOTES THAT HANI ROSE TO THE 
ANC'S NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE IN 1974 (AT THE AGE OF 
32), WHILE MBEKI WAS APPOINTED IN 1975. 
 
13.  IN MANY WAYS, HANI AND MBEKI PERSONIFY AND EPITOMIZE 
THE TWO FACES OF THE ANC.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS WIDESPREAD 
SPECULATION THAT THE TWO ARE AMBITIOUS RIVALS, WE HAVE NO 
CONCLUSIVE PROOF THAT THIS IS THE CASE.  IF A RIVALRY 
EXISTS, NEITHER MAN GAINS FROM PUBLIC KNOWLEDGE OF IT. 
FOR NOW, WE WOULD EXPECT HANI AND MBEKI TO CONCENTRATE ON 
THEIR RESPECTIVE PORTFOLIOS WHILE KEEPING ANY LEADERSHIP 
ASPIRATIONS THEY MAY HAVE CAREFULLY UNDER WRAPS. 
 
SWING.