US embassy cable - 05COLOMBO1912

C O N F I D E N T I A L COLOMBO 001912 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2015 
TAGS: PTER, PGOV, PHUM, PREL, CE, Elections, Political Parties 
SUBJECT: FOREIGN MINISTER ANURA BANDARANAIKE ON "WHEN RANIL 
WINS".... NOT "IF" 
 
REF: COLOMBO 1868 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead for reasons 1.4 (b) and ( 
d). 
 
 1. (C) When I met Foreign Minister Anura 
Bandaranaike on October 28 (reftel), he said that 
he wanted to get together before the Presidential 
election for a one-on-one chat, "without all these 
people (pointing to the notetakers) around."  On 
November 7 we had that meeting over lunch at his 
official residence. In a quite extraordinary 
series of utterances, Anura said that: 
 
--Ranil Wickremasinghe is now establishing a clear 
lead in the Presidential race and seems to be 
ahead of Mahinda Rajapakse by about five 
percentage points. 
 
--President (and Anura's sister) Chandrika 
Kumaratunga has agreed with Ranil that when (not 
"if") Ranil wins, they will work towards 
establishing a national government in which the 
UNP and SLFP  work together on a common platform. 
 
--After his projected victory, Ranil will replace 
some, but not all, of the current cabinet. Anura 
will keep his post as Foreign Minister. 
 
--Ranil will allow Chandrika to remain as 
President until a planned send-off by the armed 
forces on Nov 22 or 23. She will then depart 
immediately for London. 
 
--Shortly thereafter, Ranil will dissolve 
Parliament and call for fresh elections. Chandrika 
will return to Sri Lanka to lead the SLFP 
campaign--of course without the JVP. Turncoats 
like Mahinda Rajapakse and his campaign manager 
Mangala Samaraweera will be put in their place. 
 
--After the Parliamentary election, which Ranil's 
UNP will win, a national government will be formed 
to pursue peace and economic reform. 
 
2.  (C) Anura said that he had briefed this 
scenario to the Indian High Commissioner because 
they wanted to have Indian support.  He was now 
telling me for the same reason. I responded that 
we were not taking sides in the election, that we 
would attempt to work with whatever government was 
elected, but that our ability to do so would be 
determined by the policies that government 
followed.  We certainly hoped to be able to work 
together on our shared goals of peace and 
prosperity. 
 
3. (C) COMMENT:  Anura's extraordinary comments 
made it clear that he and President Kumaratunga 
are hoping for a Ranil victory--and at this point 
they seem fairly confident that will happen. He 
has a rosy scenario for developments after that. 
Given the bitter personal rivalry between Ranil 
and Chandrika, we are not so sure that would work 
out as planned. Still, it could be the beginning 
of that elusive "Southern consensus," the lack of 
which has stalled the peace process for so long. 
But of course it all depends on Ranil's winning 
the election. Our own unscientific view is that 
Ranil may in fact be establishing a lead--but the 
race is far too close to call. 
LUNSTEAD