US embassy cable - 05MANAMA1633

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 001633 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR THE SECRETARY FROM THE AMBASSADOR 
STATE ALSO FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ARPI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2015 
TAGS: PREL, BA, OVIP (RICE CONDOLEEZZA) 
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER: VISIT OF SECRETARY RICE TO BAHRAIN 
 
Classified By: Ambassador William T.Monroe.  Reason: 1.4 (b)(d) 
 
1. (C) We warmly welcome your November 11-12 visit to Manama 
for the Forum for the Future meeting. The Bahraini 
leadership, which values its relationship with the United 
States and yearns for more high-level engagement, looks 
forward to receiving you here.  This will be your first 
opportunity to meet newly-appointed Foreign Minister Shaikh 
Khalid, and you will meet with King Hamid after the Forum. 
Although Bahrain fully supports our effort in Iraq, the 
King's recent letter to the President asking for an envoy to 
come to Bahrain reflects anxiety that developments in Iraq, 
especially Iranian involvement and Shia empowerment, could 
have an adverse impact on this side of the Gulf. 
Ahmadi-Nejad's recent belligerent comments have only added to 
that anxiety. 
 
2. (C) In this context, the King greatly appreciates USG 
friendship, and the security afforded by the U.S. Naval 
presence here (the Fifth Fleet/Navy Central Command has it 
headquarters in Bahrain).  Bahrain hopes early U.S. 
ratification of the Free Trade agreement will strengthen ties 
and boost an economy that does not benefit from the rich 
oil/gas resources of its neighbors.  Bahrain's relationship 
with the U.S. has come under some criticism from certain 
elements of the Bahraini public recently, most notably for 
Bahrain's decision to close its Israeli boycott office under 
USG FTA-related pressure, and as a result of continuing press 
reports of allegations of mistreatment of Bahraini detainees 
at Guantanamo.  Increased media and parliamentary criticisms 
of the U.S. are, ironically, a by-product of the King's 
political reforms.  These reforms, while criticized by Shia 
opposition as insufficient, will receive a boost if, as 
expected, the main Shia opposition society, which boycotted 
the last election, decides to participate in next fall's 
parliamentary vote.  Still, finding a way to satisfy 
Bahrain's Shia majority and gain its support for the King's 
reforms will remain an overriding challenge for the 
Government of Bahrain in the coming years. 
 
3. (S) Key Issues: 
 
-- Iraq: Iraq is a major concern for Bahrain, and it is the 
reason behind King Hamid's recent request for discussions 
with a U.S. presidential envoy.  The King has been fully 
supportive of the U.S./coalition effort in Iraq, although he 
does look at it through the prism of a country with a Sunni 
royal family and a Shia majority population.  Bahraini 
leaders have noted that Bahrain sits on the Sunni-Shia 
sectarian divide, and worry that a rise in sectarian strife, 
or even consciousness, in Iraq can influence attitudes in 
Bahrain.  Moreover, Bahraini officials regularly express 
concern about Iranian inroads in Southern Iraq.  Still, 
Bahrain remains steadfastly supportive and is ready to be 
helpful, although it lacks the financial resources to be a 
major donor.  Regionally, it participates in meetings of 
Iraq's neighbors.  Plans to upgrade its diplomatic 
representation in Iraq were put on hold when Bahrain's 
long-serving Charge d'Affaires, who had been extremely 
helpful to U.S. officials in Baghdad, was wounded in July in 
a kidnapping attempt just as he was about to be named 
Ambassador.  In his meeting with you, the King will reaffirm 
his support for U.S. policy, while welcoming an opportunity 
to give his perspective from the Gulf. 
 
-- Iran: Bahrain, with its Shia majority population, has 
traditionally worried more about Iran than Iraq.  Although 
Iran has been less active in Bahrain's domestic affairs in 
recent years, it is widely believed to have helped fuel 
violent Shia opposition activities in the 1990s, and the 
government remains wary of Iranian intentions here.  Earlier 
this year, the government expressed concern when Shia 
marchers displayed pictures of Khomeini and Khamenei during 
Ashura processions.  The election of Ahmadi-Nejad touched off 
new alarm bells, raising concerns that his government will be 
more aggressive towards smaller Gulf countries like Bahrain. 
Bahraini officials blamed a reappearance of Khomeini/Khamenei 
placards during last month's Al-Quds Day demonstration on 
Ahmadi-Nejad's recent comments on Israel.  King Hamid shares 
our concerns about Iran's nuclear program, recognizing the 
danger it poses for the Gulf, but strongly hopes that 
military action will not be necessary -- both because of its 
impact on Bahrain's Shia majority and because Bahrain would 
be a prime location for Iranian retaliation. 
 
-- Free Trade Agreement: Bahrain views the FTA it signed with 
the U.S. in 2004 as an important symbol of its close ties 
with the U.S., and a significant element in its effort to 
develop and transform its economy, which does not benefit 
from the oil riches of its neighbors.  Bahrain shrugged off 
harsh criticism by Saudi Arabia for its decision to move 
forward on the FTA while the Saudi WTO accession languished, 
and in fact Bahrain's determination to press ahead helped 
rejuvenate Saudi accession talks.  Bahrain's parliament 
ratified the FTA nearly unanimously in July, although 
Bahrain's subsequent decision to close down its Israeli 
boycott office under USG pressure in order to help secure 
Congressional ratification has generated sharp parliamentary 
and public criticism.  U.S ratification is currently hinged 
on agreement on a few remaining labor issues, which are under 
discussion.  Failure to ratify the FTA before Congress 
recesses -- and thus effectively postponing implementation 
until 2007 -- would be a major disappointment for the Bahrain 
Government. 
 
-- Guantanamo Detainees: The big story in Bahrain this week 
has been the return of three of six Bahraini detainees held 
at Guantanamo.  Since they were first taken to Guantanamo 
some four years ago, the detainees have not been a big issue 
in U.S.-Bahrain relations, and the government had not pressed 
hard for their return.  Recently, however, the issue took on 
a higher profile as parliamentarians, human rights activists, 
and others pressed for their return and criticized the 
government for its ineffectiveness in securing agreement from 
Bahrain's close friend and ally to bring them home.  Press 
reports of torture allegations and suicide attempts by one 
Bahraini detainee and a hunger strike by another put the 
government further on the defensive.  The November 5 transfer 
of the three detainees will alleviate some of the pressure, 
although focus will now shift to the three still there (who 
include the high-profile suicide case and the hunger striker). 
 
-- Counterterrorism: Bahrain's mishandling of six Sunni 
terror suspects in the summer of 2004 generated concern in 
Washington about Bahrain's resolve in confronting Sunni 
terrorism and precipitated the withdrawal of all U.S. Navy 
dependents (some 1,000) from Bahrain.  Since then, the 
government has shown greater determination to deal with, and 
cooperate on, our CT concerns.  While the Sunni terror 
suspects remain free and in legal limbo as the 
constitutionality of the charges against them is considered, 
the government has attempted to keep them under surveillance, 
and has improved cooperation in other areas, critical as we 
deal with Sunni extremist networks on island.  In a hopefully 
positive sign, the King recently appointed former Ambassador 
to the U.S. Shaikh Khalifa as head of the Bahrain National 
Security Agency.  The Minister of Interior is seeking USG 
assistance in helping Bahrain stand up a new Joint 
Counterterrorism Center.  Passage of a new anti-terrorism 
law, which would facilitate terrorism prosecutions, is 
stalled in the parliament, in part on human rights concerns 
that it would revive aspects of the now defunct internal 
security act, which was used in the 1990s to crack down on 
Shia protesters.  A well-regulated banking system facilitates 
cooperation on terror financing, although enforcement remains 
a concern. 
 
-- Political Reform: King Hamid is proud that Bahrain has 
been a leader in introducing political reform in the Gulf, 
and greatly appreciates public USG recognition of his 
efforts.  That said, political reform in Bahrain is a work in 
progress.  Bahrain's Shia have long been disgruntled by 
political and economic inequalities in Bahrain, and Bahrain's 
main Shia political society -- Al-Wifaq -- boycotted the 2002 
parliamentary elections, contending that the political 
structure put in place denied them the ability to compete 
fairly.  Principal concerns were an appointed upper house, 
which could block measures by the elected lower house, and 
gerrymandering, which overrepresented the Sunni minority. 
The King has argued that these measures were necessary to 
protect the rights of the minority in the short term, and 
that any changes could and should be made inside the 
parliament.  In the meantime, the parliament itself has 
started to play a more meaningful role, most notably in the 
budget process and in bringing accountability to the 
government and its ministers.  Al-Wifaq, apparently 
calculating that it can be more effective inside the 
parliament and unable to make the King budge on reforms 
outside the parliamentary process, appears to have decided to 
participate in the 2007 elections, and will announce its 
decision on participation in January. More extreme elements 
in Al-Wifaq, who have been aggressive in leading protests and 
demonstrations against the government over the past year -- 
mostly over the issue of unemployment, which effects Shia 
disproportionately -- oppose any move towards participation, 
have broken away from Al-Wifaq, and can be expected to 
continue demonstrating against the government. The USG has 
been active in promoting democratic reform in Bahrain with 
MEPI programs, most notably through NDI, which has an office 
in Bahrain and has worked to reach out to all elements in 
Bahrain.  Among NDI's programs has been promotion of women's 
participation in the electoral process, something that has 
the support of the Royal Court. 
 
4. C) Key points to make in your meeting with the King: 
 
-- Thank the King for Bahrain's active participation in the 
G8/BMENA reform initiative, and for stepping up and 
volunteering to co-host the second meeting of the Forum for 
the Future.  Note in particular the hard work of the Foreign 
Minister and his team in organizing this major event, and 
brief the King on key results of this Forum, including the 
Foundation for the Future. 
 
-- Recognize the long history of cooperation between our two 
countries, as reflected in Bahrain's status as a Non-NATO 
Major Ally and the support Bahrain provides for our U.S. Navy 
presence in the region.  Thank the King for Bahrain's support 
for OEF, OIF, and U.S. policy in Iraq. 
 
-- Brief the King on the latest developments in Iraq, and 
solicit his views on the situation there as seen from the 
Gulf. 
 
-- Brief the King on Iran. 
 
-- Commend the King's steps on political and economic reform, 
and encourage Bahrain to continue on this path of reform. 
 
-- Commend Bahrain for its decision to be the first in the 
Gulf to negotiate a Free Trade Agreement with the U.S., and 
pledge full Administration backing for U.S. ratification of 
the FTA as soon as possible. 
MONROE