US embassy cable - 05BAGHDAD4514

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004514 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, IZ, Sunni Arab, Elections 
SUBJECT: SUNNI ARAB PARTIES RUNNING COMPETING SLATES FOR 
DECEMBER ELECTIONS 
 
REF: BAGHDAD 4426 
 
Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES DAVID M. SATTERFIELD FOR REASONS 1.4 ( 
B) AND (D). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: The recently-released IECI list 
of coalitions and political entities set to run in the 
December elections reveals a fractured field of Sunni Arab 
politicians who have chosen to compete with one another 
rather than run together.  Power struggles rather than 
policy differences appear to divide them, although some 
lists are notably more moderate than others.  Former Prime 
Minister Allawi's Iraqi National List is the only prominent 
list that ties Sunni Arab leaders to a cross-sectarian 
slate.  The Iraqi Consensus Front, a comparatively moderate 
Sunni Arab Islamist alliance including the Iraqi Islamic 
Party and National Dialogue Council, appears poised to be 
the frontrunner in the Sunni Arab community.  It will face 
competition from several lists with a more a clearly Sunni 
nationalist spin, some of which offer known former Ba'ath 
Party figures on their candidate rolls.  All of the parties 
appear to be running under a similar litany of demands. 
None but Allawi's openly denounce the insurgency, and most 
appear to engage in identity politics, oppose federalism, 
condemn militia activity, support the reconstitution of the 
former Iraqi army, and demand a timetable for MNF-I 
withdrawal.  END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. 
 
2. (C) The recently-released IECI list of coalitions and 
political entities set to run in the December elections 
offers a preliminary look at a range of Sunni Arab parties 
that have yet to kick off their campaigns.  Judging by the 
brief media appearances from scattered competitors and past 
experience with some of the more prominent leaders, the 
leading Sunni Arab slates appear set to campaign on similar 
platforms of oft-repeated demands.  Their shared principles 
are as follows: 
 
-- Reconstitute the former Iraqi army 
-- End militia activity 
-- Release innocent detainees 
-- Set a timetable for MNF-I withdrawal 
-- Regulate or eliminate de-Ba'athification 
-- Stop government corruption 
-- Improve employment opportunities 
-- Amend Iraq's constitution to prevent federalism 
 
3. (C) The following list profiles the leading parties 
seeking out the Sunni Arab vote in the coming December 
elections: 
 
-- IRAQI CONSENSUS FRONT: This list joins together a 
moderate Islamist trend in Sunni Arab politics, uniting the 
Iraqi Islamic Party, Former Sunni Waqf Director Adnan 
Duleimi's "General Conference of the Iraqi People," and the 
Iraqi National Dialogue Council.  Former Dialogue Council 
Spokesman Saleh Mutlak has split with that group, which he 
helped found, and is running on a separate list described 
below.  With the strong apparatus of the Iraqi Islamic 
Party apparatus at its disposal, this coalition can be 
expected to be a frontrunner throughout Sunni Arab areas in 
Iraq. 
 
-- IRAQI NATIONAL LIST: Allawi's coalition pulls together 
several prominent, moderate Sunni Arab politicians who hope 
to win votes on a platform of national unity rather than 
sectarian appeals.  Vice President Ghazi al-Yawar, whose 
Iraqiyoon list won five seats in the last parliament 
building on tribal support in Ninewa, has joined the 
coalition.  Many observers have noted that Yawar's support 
in Ninewa may be split during these elections since several 
other Shammar shaykhs have separately declared their 
candidacy for the parliament.  TNA Speaker Hachim al- 
Hasani, who achieved renown during the Assembly's run, is 
also on the slate.  Sa'ad Asim al-Janabi, leader of the 
Iraqi Republican Gathering, promises to bring financial 
resources and ties to former regime figures to the 
endeavor.  Former Interior Minister Falah al-Naqib, leader 
of the Independent Iraqi Association and a prominent 
interim government official, is on the list.  Shaykh Adnan 
al-Janabi, former Minister of State and Constitution 
Committee Deputy Chairman, also remains allied with Allawi 
and brings with him tribal support in Babil province.  This 
list is poised to compete strongly across the country with 
the exception of Kurdistan. 
 
-- LIBERATION AND RECONCILIATION BLOC: Secular nationalist 
and TNA firebrand Mish'an Jaburi, one of the few Sunni Arab 
leaders to put in a successful showing in the January 
elections, leads this list.  He won one seat in the TNA and 
six in the Salah ad-Din provincial council, the likely 
center of his campaign.  He also claims support in Mosul 
where he briefly held the governorship after the war. 
Jaburi's personal wealth, newspaper, and developing 
satellite station will provide a strong platform for his 
campaign.  He is a secular nationalist with sympathy for 
the former Ba'ath Party although he claims to have refused 
membership in it. He is likely to put in a strong showing 
in Salah al-Din. 
 
-- THE ARAB LIST: This list appears ready to offer a slate 
clearly sympathetic to the former regime.  Former Saddam- 
era Presidential Cabinet member Haseeb Arif al-Obeidi leads 
the list.  An independent member of the constitution 
drafting committee, Obeidi is a former Baghdad University 
professor and the registered leader of the National 
Solidarity Movement. He ultimately rejected the 
constitution in protest of its federalism provisions, 
sectarian tone, and lists of freedoms that he found 
excessive.  One Iraqi newspaper identified this list as a 
potentially strong contender in Anbar. 
 
-- IRAQI FRONT FOR NATIONAL DIALOGUE:  This list is Saleh 
Mutlak's breakaway faction from the National Dialogue 
Council.  It appears to be a secular nationalist group with 
sympathy for the insurgency and the former regime.  Mutlak 
is an admitted admirer of the Ba'ath Party.  Another slate 
leader, Hassan Zeidan al-Luheibi, leader of the "National 
Front for a Free United Iraq," is a former general in the 
Iraqi Army.  Both men participated in the constitution 
drafting committee and both ultimately rejected the 
document over its federalism provisions.  Both are also 
deeply suspicious of the Shia Islamist bloc and insist it 
is an "Iranian front" in Iraq.  Their coalition also 
includes a Christian party, Meenas al-Yusifi's "Iraqi 
Christian Democratic Party," a nod to diversity that 
appears reminiscent of Saddam Hussein's elevation of 
Christian former deputy prime minister Tariq Aziz. 
Several of the parties in the coalition are running a 
slightly different slate in Kirkuk, the "Iraqi Dialogue 
Front in Kirkuk," which is aimed at appealing to Sunni Arab 
voters in the governorate.  This list could risk being 
overshadowed by the "Iraqi Consensus Front," but it will 
run aggressively in Anbar, Mutlak's home province, as well 
as in Ninewa and Salah al-Din. 
 
-- MITHAL ALUSI LIST FOR THE IRAQI NATION: Unlikely to wage 
a sectarian campaign, Mithal Alusi is a Sunni Arab leader 
heading up the only eponymous coalition in the election. 
He will campaign as a liberal democrat and is sure to 
lambaste the current government as sectarian and corrupt. 
Alusi alienated some of his Iraqi political allies in 2004 
when he attended a conference in Israel.  He was 
subsequently the target of an assassination attempt in 
February 2005, in which two of his sons were killed. Alusi 
has built a following from frequent appearances on 
satellite television networks and claims celebrity status 
on some college campuses.  His January campaign fizzled 
however, and it remains to be seen whether he translate his 
notoriety into votes. 
 
-- PATRIOTS' GATHERING: This moderate secular nationalist 
list joins Tikrit-based politician and American citizen 
Hatem al-Mukhlis and Mosul-based Shaykh Anwar al-Nada al- 
Luheibi.  Mukhlis is the registered leader of the Iraqi 
National Movement and runs his own newspaper.  He opposed 
the constitution but balked at forming an alliance with 
Saleh Mutlak, whom he considers an extremist tainted by 
sympathy to the insurgency. Al-Nada lives in Baghdad and is 
a native of Mosul.  He claims the leadership of the 
"Unified Iraqi Congress," which has offices throughout 
Iraq.  The United Assembly of Mosul Tribes, another group 
he leads, holds three seats in the Ninewa Provincial 
Council.  This slate is likely to focus its campaign on 
Salah al-Din, Ninewa and Baghdad. 
 
-- THE NATIONAL UNITY LIST:  Mosul-based tribal Sunni Arab 
Shaykh Fawaz al-Jarba is a leading player in this 
coalition, which includes his "Unified Iraqi Democratic 
Congress."  Jarba ran with the Shia-dominated United Iraqi 
Alliance in the January elections and won a seat in the 
National Assembly.  He soon became frustrated with what he 
came to see as a sectarian coalition and split with the 
group.  A veteran of the Iran-Iraq war, al-Jarba is an 
opponent of the former regime who fled to Saudi Arabia 
before returning to Iraq.  He was ultimately placed under 
house arrest by the government and remained confined until 
April 2003.  As a Shammar Shaykh, his candidacy puts him in 
direct competition with Allawi ally Shaykh Ghazi al-Yawar 
who claims the loyalty of the same tribe in Mosul. 
 
Satterfield