US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV6353

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 006353 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, IS, ELECTIONS 2006, GOI INTERNAL 
SUBJECT: PERES MAY NEED SECOND ROUND VOTE TO TAKE LABOR 
CHAIR 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Norman Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary: A November 3 poll and Labor Party sources 
indicate that Shimon Peres' anticipated first-round victory 
over contender Amir Peretz in the November 9 Labor Party 
primaries could be in jeopardy absent a high voter turnout 
and the withdrawal of the two other contenders.  Rattled by 
Peretz's dramatic jump in the polls this fall, Peres appealed 
November 3 to Matan Vilna'i and Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, with 15 
percent and 11 percent of party support, respectively, to 
withdraw from the race and place their support behind him. 
Polls still show Peres winning a significant victory in any 
second round.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (C) A November 3 Dahuf Institute poll shows that in the 
event of a 60 percent voter turnout in the Labor Party 
primaries, Histadrut Chair Peretz would receive 34 percent of 
the vote and interim party Chair Peres 37 percent.  Until 
recently, polls have shown Peres winning at least the 41 
percent necessary for a first-round win.  With a 70 percent 
turnout, however, support for Peres jumps to 41 percent and 
for Peretz drops to 30 percent.  Observers attribute the 
better low-turnout numbers for Peretz to his better 
organizational skills.  An upbeat Peretz told Poloff October 
31 that he attributes his rise in popularity to his tireless 
campaigning.  He questioned the accuracy of earlier polls, 
commenting that he "cannot see how Peres could get 20 percent 
more" in the earlier polls when Peretz has been working 
"morning to evening" and "going around the country" 
campaigning.  Peretz said that when out campaigning he feels 
sure of people's support for him and did not get the sense 
that many people support Peres.  Former Labor Party Chair 
Amram Mitzna told poloff November 3 that Peretz has an 
advantage in motivating his supporters to the polls since he 
has a "very good organization -- the best for the day of 
elections."  Labor Party organizer for the northern region 
Nimrod Vizansky told Poloff November 3 that Peretz can rely 
on Histadrut members to come out to support him, and he 
accused Peretz of using his position to pressure Histadrut 
members to vote for him.  Inclement weather could keep those 
Labor voters who would vote for Peres from the polls, 
according to Vilansky. 
 
3.  (C) The November 3 poll also shows Peres winning with 54 
percent to 41 percent for Peretz in a runoff vote, which 
would be required if no candidate obtains 41 percent of the 
vote on November 9.  The assumption is that those who voted 
for Ben-Eliezer and Vilna'i in the first round would shift 
their support to Peres in the second round.  Peres reportedly 
wants to win in the first round, and he appealed to 
Ben-Eliezer and Vilna'i November 3 to drop out of the race 
and place their support behind him.  Ehud Barak, who recently 
withdrew from the race and threw his support to Peres, met 
with Ben-Eliezer and Vilna'i November 3 to urge them to 
follow his example.  Thus far, the two have refused to bow 
out. 
 
4. (C) Despite immediate post-poll reports of a possible move 
to postpone the primaries, Peretz campaign manager MK Yuli 
Tamir told Poloff November 4 that the Labor Party internal 
court decided against moving to do so.  Vilansky speculated 
that Peres supporters, fearing a Peretz victory, were behind 
this attempt to delay the vote, but Mitzna and Tamir 
dismissed this view. 
 
********************************************* ******************** 
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website. 
********************************************* ******************** 
JONES