US embassy cable - 05ABUJA2127

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002127 
 
SIPDIS 
 
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE - PASS TO POLAD 
LONDON PASS TO JACMOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/4/15 
TAGS: PGOV, PREF, PREL, NI 
SUBJECT:  NIGERIA:  NIGERIAN AMBASSADOR TO U.S. FEARS 
NIGERIA'S BREAKUP UNLESS CONSTITUTION IS CHANGED 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador John Campbell for Reasons:  1.5, 
b, d. 
 
1.  (S) Summary George Obiozor, Nigeria's ambassador to the 
U.S., fears that Nigeria will break up "like Yugoslavia" 
unless the presidency's rotation amongst the geopolitical 
regions is "institutionalized" by a new or revised 
constitution.  He advocates President Obasanjo remaining in 
office past 2007 to preside over a constitutional 
convention.  End summary. 
 
2.  (S) George Obiozor came to lunch, at his request, on 
November 2.  His message was that there is serious danger 
that Nigeria will disintegrate in the near future if the 
rotation amongst the regions of the presidency is not 
institutionalized by a new constitution.  He said that the 
North's assumption that the next president of Nigeria will 
be a Northern Muslim is misplaced; the South, the 
South/South and the East, especially the old Biafra, will 
violently object.  He described Nigeria as riddled with 
religious, ethnic and social conflicts, with too many of 
the fault lines being between the ever-poorer North and 
rest of Nigeria.  The fundamental poverty of the North, he 
said, had long been obscured by the fact that the region 
controlled the Federal government -- and benefited 
formally, informally and disproportionately from energy 
revenue.  The South, centered on the old Biafra, had been 
frozen out of national power since the end of the civil 
war.  But, he continued, the South would no longer accept 
the inevitability that the next president of Nigeria will 
be a Northern Muslim.  Unless there is a fundamental change 
in Nigeria's governance, he continued, there was a 
possibility, even probability that the country would 
degenerate into "chaotic civil war" -- that the country 
would breakup like Yugoslavia, not peacefully like 
Czechoslovakia or the Soviet Union.  And the resulting 
chaos would provide opportunities for external terrorist 
organizations to establish themselves more deeply in the 
North. 
 
3.  (S)  Obiozor dismissed the current leading candidates: 
Buhari is a Muslim fanatic;  Marwa has no national 
constituency;  Atiku is corrupt.  Only Babangida, with his 
wealth and national network has a chance -- but he may not 
have the ambition. Obiozor said that the next president is 
likely to come from amongst the governors -- or "an elder 
statesman."  But, Obiozor continued, much of Nigeria will 
no longer accept a Northern Muslim candidate.  He said the 
South/South, the South and the East are likely to follow 
the "Croatian model" during the early days of Yugoslavia's 
disintegration and boycott -- or worse -- an election in 
which the leading presidential candidates are Northern 
Muslims. 
 
4.  (S) The way out, Obiozor continued, is for President 
Obasanjo to remain in office past 2007 to preside over a 
constitutional convention that would establish a single- 
term presidency of five or six years and institutionalize 
its rotation amongst the geopolitical regions -- with the 
South coming first and the North last.  I asked about the 
likely reaction of the Dangote and Dantata clans that have 
controlled so much of Northern political life.  Obiozor 
said that they would be willing to forego controlling the 
presidency to ensure political stability in Nigeria.  When 
I asked about southern candidates, Obiozor said that they 
are legion -- once the assumption that the next president 
must be a Northern Muslim is set aside.  When I pressed him 
further, he said that Rivers State Governor Peter Odili is 
particularly attractive.  He did not respond to my question 
about what President Obasanjo's views might be on remaining 
in office temporarily to preside over a constitutional 
convention. 
 
5.  (S) Comment:  Obiozor came to lunch immediately after 
his meeting with the President, and he said he had spent 
several hours with the President the night before. 
However, Obiozor did not claim to be speaking on behalf of 
the President.  His assessment of the possibility or 
probability of a bloody breakup of Nigeria is unusual here 
in government circles, more common in civil society.  On 
the other hand, the emphasis he puts on the increasing 
disaffection of the southern regions of the country is 
salutary; with our focus on the bunkering and militia 
activity in the delta and the broad disaffection in the 
North it is easy to lose sight of the deep sense of 
grievance to be found elsewhere in Nigeria.  All of the 
current leading presidential candidates -- Babangida, 
Buhari, Marwa, Atiku are Northern Muslims who are part of 
the traditional establishment; Obiozor is warning that the 
game may no longer be played by the old rules. 
 
6.  (S) Comment Continued:  Obiozor's bottom line is that 
only President Obasanjo can save the country from chaos and 
disintegration -- by presiding over a constitutional 
convention that would have the effect of increasing (or 
restoring) the power of the area of the old Biafra and 
adjacent areas by institutionalizing the rotation of the 
presidency amongst all of the regions.  Note:  implicit in 
Obiozor's idea of constitutional convention presided over 
by President Obasanjo is the postponement of the 2007 
elections.  In the context of a constitutional convention, 
this might even be legal.  Obiozor is an Ibo from Enugu 
state, a Christian, who has been a fixture of every regime 
since Shagari's.  An academic (he refers to himself as 
professor), Obiozor is a former ambassador to Israel.  He 
has not been commonly regarded as part of president 
Obasanjo's inner circle. A consummate survivor in Nigeria's 
tumultuous politics, he knows from whence his bread is 
buttered.  Obiozor has been playing an increasingly active 
part in PDP politics by working with fellow pro-Obasanjo 
Ibos to weaken anti-Obasanjo PDP governors in the 
Southeast.  If Obasanjo hangs on after 2007, Obiozor 
figures to likewise benefit.  While we have no doubt that 
Obiozor believes what he told us, his outlook is also 
shaped by his political bias and self-interests. End 
comment. 
CAMPBELL