US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI8510

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 008510 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KISL, KDEM, PHUM, PBTS, PTER, ASEC, PK, IN, Kashmir 
SUBJECT: DESPITE TERROR BLAST, NEW KASHMIR CHIEF MINISTER 
ASSUMES DUTIES 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 8120 
     B. NEW DELHI 8508 
     C. NEW DELHI 8607 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  Despite a suicide car bombing that killed 
five, Cabinet Affairs Minister and Sonia Gandhi close aide 
Ghulam Nabi Azad became Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir 
November 2, as per a 2003 power-sharing agreement between 
Congress and former Chief Minister Mufti Mohammed Sayeed's 
PDP party.  Azad has a tough job ahead of him, including 
quashing terror, managing popular expectations in J&K, 
sustaining Kashmir's march toward normalcy, and avoiding the 
impression that he is Sonia Gandhi and the Delhi government's 
errand boy.  Azad's tenure will witness furious jockeying 
among Kashmiri political parties to position themselves for 
2008 elections, proving India's policy that genuine democracy 
entrusted to Kashmiris will be the key to ending a fifteen 
year insurgency that no longer garners popular support.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
SONIA FINALLY DECIDES TO CAN MUFTI 
---------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) After weeks of speculation, and as we foreshadowed in 
Ref A, UPA Supremo Sonia Gandhi decided late October 27 to 
oust Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) Chief Minister (CM) Mufti 
Mohammed Sayeed per their 2003 power-sharing agreement to 
switch from his PDP party to Congress rule by the end of 
October 2005.  Her decision, after much public hemming and 
hawing, means Cabinet Affairs Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad of 
Jammu has become the first CM of J&K not from the Valley, and 
the first Congress CM in three decades.  Our contacts, 
including a Communist MLA and a PDP functionary characterize 
him as a man who will place a firm hand on the tiller of 
government.  We assess that Sonia knuckled under to intense 
pressure from power-hungry Congress MLAs who were outraged at 
the possibility that, for reasons of national interest and 
due to the earthquake, Sonia might allow Mufti to continue in 
power.  Those MLAs, the papers reported, even threatened to 
defect to the PDP if power did not come to them.  Sonia's 
decision flew in the face of editorials by the Hindustan 
Times, Indian Express, and Times of India that urged that 
Mufti remain in the job to ensure proper earthquake relief, 
continue his work improving the human rights situation in the 
Valley, and facilitate Delhi-Srinagar dialogue.  The way in 
which Sonia made the decision also particularly infuriated 
Mufti's daughter, Mehbooba, who, while publicly gracious, was 
privately upset that her father had been jerked around for 
weeks before Sonia finally administered the coup de grace 
that they had known all along was coming but had been led to 
believe might be delayed. 
 
TERRORISTS CRASH THE PARTY 
-------------------------- 
 
3. (C) On the day of Azad's inauguration in Srinagar November 
2, terrorists sent him an unwelcome welcome present by 
killing four in a suicide bombing just a few hundred yards 
from Mufti's private residence, but 15 kms from the 
inauguration site.  The press reported that a Jaish-e-Muhamed 
(JeM) suicide bomber detonated a bomb after rushing through a 
police roadblock in a Maruti car.  Indian government sources 
speculate the bomber sought to test defenses around Mufti's 
new home, send Azad a signal that the earthquake had not 
wiped them out, and also signal to Sonia their displeasure 
that separatist-friendly PDP was out of power (Ref B). 
 
SEPARATISTS YAWN 
---------------- 
4. (C) The separatists viewed the democratic transfer of 
power as a bit of a snooze.  Mirwaiz Omar Farooq of the 
moderate Hurriyat characterized it as an "internal" matter 
that would not lead to any final settlement of Kashmir's 
status.  Hardline Hurriyat leader SAS Geelani said the 
transfer would make no difference to Kashmiris.  Shabir Shah 
said the transfer did not affect him since he really only 
wants freedom (azadi) not Azad.  Shah added that the transfer 
continued Delhi's long tradition of unfulfilled promises, 
noting that Delhi's high-handedness continued even in the 
shabby way in which Mufti learned of his ouster by watching 
TV news.  Bilal Lone told us Mufti was not a sacred cow for 
the separatists, so they are not perturbed at his departure. 
What they left unsaid is that they are not outraged, as some 
in the commentariat had expected, that a Congress-wallah from 
Jammu is taking over in their precious Srinagar.  Professor 
Anand Sahay, writing on www.rediff.com speculated that the 
reason people in the Valley are giving Azad a chance is 
because conditions there are as normal as they have been in 
15 years, resentment against Delhi has given way to 
resentment against the terrorists (who cannot be held 
accountable in court for their horrific excesses) for causing 
the bulk of deaths during the insurgency, and Kashmiris feel 
they were "had" by Jehadis who promised them freedom but 
brutalized them for not being sufficiently fundamentalist in 
their faith.  As a result, Sahay argues, J&K is becoming a 
normal state for the first time, and the old unwritten rules 
about imposing puppet regional parties no longer apply, hence 
the popular acceptance of Azad's accession. 
 
WHO'S WHO IN AZAD'S KASHMIR 
--------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Continuing with the power-sharing formula that emerged 
from the 2002 elections, the PDP's Muzaffar Hussain Beigh 
will serve as Deputy Chief Minister, while the former Deputy 
in Mufti's government, Congress minister Mangat Ram Sharma, 
was retained as a Cabinet minister without portfolio.  Six 
Congress and five PDP ministers also took the oath of office, 
none of whom are women.   Kashmiris (from the Valley) 
continue to dominate, with seven, while Jammu received four 
ministers, and Ladakh two; as usual, Sikhs and Hindu Pandits 
got frozen out.  The J&K government will shift to Jammu 
November 7 to avoid the Valley winter, re-starting work after 
the Eid holiday.  Azad will first focus rounding out his 
cabinet.  The new government should be in place by late 
November, after which Azad will focus on shifting people 
around in the bureaucracy.  Already, the media are reporting 
terror in the bureaucracy at Azad's threats to clean up the 
notorious corruption in the J&K administration, although 
Tahir Mohi-ud-din, an editor at a Kashmiri news magazine told 
us the ministers in Azad's government are also corrupt.  A 
prominent Kashmiri businessman, Altaf Bukhari, agreed that 
all the Congress members of the government are known for 
their corruption.  Azad's resignation as Parliamentary 
Affairs minister in the central cabinet will also likely 
accelerate the long rumored Cabinet reshuffle in Delhi (Ref 
C). 
 
THE TO-DO LIST 
-------------- 
 
6. (C) Azad has taken the reins of power in the aftermath of 
the worst natural disaster in J&K's modern history.  He has 
to demonstrate to Kashmiris that his government can deliver 
relief supplies efficiently despite the transfer.  He also 
has a continuing insurgency and consequent terrorism to deal 
with.  He must manage relations with splintered and fractious 
separatists even as they, in turn, talk to Delhi and 
Islamabad.  He will have to shed his reputation as Sonia's 
long-time "chamcha" (suck-up/errand boy) by appearing to 
stand up to Delhi from time to time.  In his inaugural 
address, Azad said custodial killings by security forces and 
terrorism by insurgents would not be tolerated.  In a 
rhetorical show of strength and moral clarity, he called the 
insurgents terrorists, not using the namby-pamby "militant" 
formulation preferred by a terrified news media.  He also 
promised to continue Mufti's "Healing Touch" human rights 
policies.  Azad will have to manage resentment of Kashmir 
from Jammu and Ladakh, which perpetually feel slighted by 
Delhi's obsession with the Valley.  The valley's unemployment 
remains a headache. 
 
COMMENT: NO HONEYMOONS IN KASHMIRI POLITICS 
------------------------------------------- 
7. (C) Sonia's decision in one sense put Congress' narrow 
interests ahead of those of the people of the Valley or even 
national interests.  Many think tank types in Delhi had urged 
Mufti's retention because he had done so much to calm the 
Valley.  Moreover, Mufti had acted as a circuit breaker of 
sorts, protecting the Center from Kashmiris' ire at the 
government.  Azad, as "Delhi's man"  will be hampered in 
trying to play that role.  Sonia's decision also suggested 
that the UPA really is feeling vulnerable in managing its 
coalition and could not afford the additional dissent that a 
decision not to pursue the Chief Ministership likely would 
have provoked among the Congress rank and file.  While the 
Hurriyat have carefully remained out of this PDP-Congress 
power drama, the National Conference of Farooq and Omar 
Abdullah are delighted that their PDP nemeses are out of 
power.  Sonia may still compensate Mufti with some senior 
portfolio in Delhi, while Mehbooba works to weaken the 
National Conference and survive Congress' predations on her 
flock in the Valley prior to 2008 elections.  Meanwhile, 
Azad, sniffing, perhaps, National Conference and PDP 
weakness, will work to position Congress to make big gains 
before the 2008 poll.  We doubt the PDP-Congress coalition 
will survive the next election as a result.  What is sure is 
that there will be furious jockeying from now until 2008 
between the major parties. 
 
COMMENT CONTINUED: BECOMING A NORMAL STATE AFTER 60 YEARS 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
8. (C) Meanwhile, all eyes are on the currently-on-hold 
Delhi-Srinagar dialogue to see if the Hurriyat can be 
inveigled to contest elections in 2008.  If they do, the 
treacherous party politics of Kashmir will get even more 
dangerous, but party machinations and regular elections will 
have won the day, with ballots beating bullets after 15 years 
of seething insurgency.  Azad and Sonia and Manmohan Singh 
must continue the trend the BJP started of devolving real 
democracy to Kashmiris, and treating J&K like an ordinary 
state and not as a mistrusted ward of Delhi that must be kept 
on a short leash.  The insurgency found its birth in Delhi's 
arrogance, yet its death draws nearer as Delhi curbs its 
tendencies toward meddling.  In this regard, Azad and the 
Congress party face the challenge of building on the BJP's 
and Mufti's achievements in making J&K look more and more 
like a normal state in India's democracy. 
MULFORD