US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4477

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 004477 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, TW 
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION SCENESETTER: TAITUNG COUNTY/THE 
HORSERACE 
 
REF: TAIPEI 4158 
 
Classified By: AIT ACTING DIRECTOR DAVID J. 
KEEGAN, REASON(S): 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY.  TAITUNG COUNTY IS HAVING THE ULTIMATE LOCAL 
TAIWAN ELECTION  (REFTEL).  NEITHER CANDIDATE IS ENDORSED BY 
A MAJOR PARTY.  BOTH ARE BEDEVILED BY ACCUSATIONS OF 
CORRUPTION.  NOTHING COULD HAVE SEEMED MORE NATURAL TO 
LOCALS.  WHILE THE KMT HAS A STRONG HOLD IN TAITUNG, 
PARTY-AFFILIATION IS HARDLY WORTH A MENTION IN THE 
MUD-SLINGING AND BACKROOM BETTING CURRENTLY IN PLAY.  WHILE 
THE ODDS ARE NOT YET SET, BOOKIES ARE LEANING TOWARD A WIN BY 
KMT-MEMBER WU CHUN-LI, AND NO ONE SEEMS CONCERNED THAT HIS 
RECENT SIXTEEN YEAR SENTENCE FOR CORRUPTION MIGHT HINDER HIS 
CHANCES OR EVEN KEEP HIM FROM SERVING AS MAGISTRATE IF 
ELECTED. THE INCUMBENT DPP MAGISTRATE HSU CHING-YUAN HAS SET 
THE TONE FOR HIS PROTEGE'S, THE INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE 
(DPP-MEMBER) LIU CHAO-HAO'S, CAMPAIGN BY PUBLICLY AIRING 
EVERY PIECE OF DIRTY LAUNDRY IN CANDIDATE WU'S CLOSET ONLY TO 
FIND THE PUBLIC MORE INTERESTED IN WHY MAGISTRATE HSU HIMSELF 
DROPPED OUT OF THE RACE.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF INCUMBENT MAGISTRATE 
HSU CHING-YUAN, WHO DECRIED THE DPP AS "STUPID AND INCAPABLE" 
AND THE KMT AS "LOUSY AND CORRUPT," MOST PEOPLE IN TAITUNG 
EXPRESS LESS INTEREST IN PARTY POLITICS THAN THEY DO IN WHY 
THE INCUMBENT FIRST-TERM MAGISTRATE ISN'T RUNNING FOR 
RE-ELECTION.  MAGISTRATE HSU'S HISTORY SHOWS A MAN OF THE 
RAINBOW -- GREEN, BLUE AND COLORS IN-BETWEEN.  ORIGINALLY A 
KMT MEMBER WHO WAS ELECTED ON AN INDEPENDENT TICKET TO HIS 
CURRENT OFFICE, HSU LATER BECAME A DPP MEMBER WHILE IN 
OFFICE.  HSU TOLD AIT/K THAT DESPITE HIS MANY ACCOMPLISHMENTS 
TO IMPROVE TAITUNG'S STANDARD OF LIVING IN ART, CULTURE AND 
EDUCATION, HIS GENERAL "DISAPPOINTMENT" WITH POLITICS AND 
POLITICAL PARTIES LED HIM NOT TO SEEK RE-ELECTION, A STORY 
MOST IN TAITUNG SERIOUSLY DOUBT. 
 
3. (C)  HSU, A STRAIGHTFORWARD AND EXCITABLE PERSON, PRAISED 
HIS DEPUTY MAGISTRATE, INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE LIU CHAO-HAO, AS 
FAR MORE CAPABLE, INTELLIGENT AND HARDWORKING THAN HIMSELF. 
A LAWYER AND FORMER JUDGE FOR SIX YEARS IN THE TAITUNG 
DISTRICT COURT, LIU IS YOUNG, "CLEAN" AND HAS FOUR STRONG 
YEARS OF EXPERIENCE NOW AS A DEPUTY MAGISTRATE, SAYS HSU.  ON 
THE OTHER HAND, HSU NOTED TO AIT/K THE SAME THING HE HAS 
NOTED DAILY FOR NEWSPAPERS AND TELEVISION REPORTERS: 
INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE WU CHUN-LI IS A "LOUSY" MAN WHO HAS 
BEEN SENTENCED TO SIXTEEN YEARS IN PRISON FOR CORRUPTION. 
HSU CALLED WU "A GAMBLER" SAYING THAT WU "EVEN GAMBLES IN HIS 
OFFICE."  AS SUCH, HSU CHARACTERIZED THIS ELECTION AS A 
BATTLE BETWEEN "JUDGE AND HOODLUM." 
 
4. (C)  UNFORTUNATELY, SAID HSU, THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT 
THE KMT HAS THE STRONGER HAND IN TAITUNG.  WHILE HE KNOWS KMT 
CHAIRMAN MA YING-JEOU WON'T BE COMING DOWN TO SUPPORT WU'S 
CAMPAIGN, HE CAUTIONED AIT/K NOT TO BE FOOLED BY WU'S STATUS 
AS AN INDEPENDENT.  "JUST GO TO THE KMT OFFICE," HE SAID, 
"AND YOU'LL SEE EVERY ONE OVER THERE BUSY TO DEATH SUPPORTING 
HIM."  IN AN ASIDE, HE ALSO TOLD AIT/K NOT TO EVEN FACTOR IN 
INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE PENG, A PROFESSOR AT TAITUNG 
UNIVERSITY, BECAUSE "HE IS A NUT AND HIS OWN FAMILY WOULDN'T 
VOTE FOR HIM."  WHEN PENG RAN IN THE LAST MAGISTERIAL 
ELECTION HE RECEIVED ONLY 500 VOTES. 
 
5. (C)  ANOTHER STRAIGHT TALKER, KMT'S COUNTY CHAIRMAN CHOU 
HSI-FANG, CUT RIGHT TO THE CHASE.  IF MAGISTRATE HSU ISN'T 
INTERESTED IN RUNNING, ASKED CHOU, "THEN WHY DID HE APPROACH 
THE KMT IN MAY AND ASK IF HE COULD RUN UNDER OUR BANNER?  WE 
ALL KNOW THE PUBLIC WOULD GIVE HIM STRONG SUPPORT, SO WHY 
ISN'T HE RUNNING?"  THE KMT, SAYS CHOU, REFUSED TO BRING 
MAGISTRATE HSU BACK INTO THE FOLD BECAUSE HE SUPPORTED A DPP 
CANDIDATE IN THE LAST LEGISLATIVE YUAN ELECTION AND THAT HAS 
ALIENATED A LOT OF POTENTIAL KMT SUPPORTERS FROM HSU. 
FURTHER, HSU'S ADMINISTRATIVE AIDES HAVE BEEN BLEEDING AWAY 
FROM APPOINTMENTS IN THE COUNTY GOVERNMENT FOR THE LAST THREE 
YEARS, CLAIMS CHOU, AND EACH ONE OF THEM HAS BROUGHT FORTH 
FURTHER DOCUMENTARY EVIDENCE OUT OF HSU'S "CORRUPT" 
ADMINISTRATION AND HANDED IT OVER TO THE KMT.  CHAIRMAN CHOU 
TOLD AIT/K THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT, ALTHOUGH HSU IS BUSY 
CONDEMNING WU AS A HOODLUM AND GAMBLER, THE TRUTH IS THAT HSU 
HIMSELF IS "JUST LIKE WU BECAUSE THEY ARE BOTH GAMBLERS." 
HSU, SAYS CHOU, HAS FIGURED HIS ODDS OF WINNING AND THEY ARE 
NO BETTER THAN 50/50, SO HE'S PULLED OUT OF THE RACE TO SAVE 
HIMSELF FROM EXPOSURE TO THE FILTH HIS FORMER AIDES HAVE 
PROVIDED THE KMT TO THROW AT HIM IF HE RUNS. 
 
6. (C)  AS FAR AS THE KMT IS CONCERNED, THE MUD-SLINGING HAS 
ALREADY STARTED GIVEN MAGISTRATE HSU'S DAILY RANTS AGAINST 
CANDIDATE WU.  SO, EVEN THOUGH HSU ISN'T RUNNING, WU'S 
UNOFFICIAL KMT SUPPORTERS INTEND TO THROW SOMETHING SOON AT 
LIU, WHO AFTER SERVING FOR FOUR YEARS UNDER HSU MUST BE 
GUILTY BY ASSOCIATION, CHOU NOTED.  WHAT THE KMT, HOWEVER, 
WILL BE SLINGING IS NOT MUD, BUT GRAVEL.  WITH CANDIDATE WU 
SHOWING IN LOCAL KMT POLLS AS AHEAD BY 5%, THE KMT HOPES TO 
TURN GREEN-LEANING OR UNDECIDED VOTERS TOWARD WU BY SHOWING 
THAT HSU, AND HIS DEPUTY, ALLOWED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF GRAVEL 
TO BE SHIPPED OUT OF TAITUNG COUNTY TO TAIWAN'S EAST COAST. 
UP TO 1,007 TRUCKS IN ONE DAY CARRIED GRAVEL OUT OF TAITUNG, 
CLAIMS TAITUNG CITY COUNCILOR CHEN HSIEN-HSING.  WITHOUT A 
THOUGHT AS TO THE COUNTY'S OWN NEEDS, THE SHIPMENT OF SUCH 
LARGE AMOUNTS OF GRAVEL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME, SAYS 
KMT OFFICIALS, CERTAINLY SMACKS OF CORRUPTION.  KMT'S 
CHAIRMAN CHOU IMPLIES THEY HAVE THE DOCUMENTARY EVIDENCE TO 
PROVE IT. 
 
7. (C)  WHEN AIT/K ASKED IF WU CHUN-LI'S RECENT SIXTEEN-YEAR 
CONVICTION FOR CORRUPTION CERTAINLY WOULD NOT BE AN OBSTACLE 
TO RUNNING AN EFFECTIVE CAMPAIGN, THE KMT'S TAITUNG CHAIRMAN 
CHOU LAUGHED IT OFF AS MERELY A "MATTER OF LAW."  IN FACT, 
SAID CHOU, CANDIDATE LIU AND HIS CHIEF SUPPORTER MAGISTRATE 
HSU ARE USING THIS "EXAGGERATED INTERPRETATION OF THE LAW" 
AND REPEATEDLY RAISING THE LOWER COURT CONVICTION AS A 
"CAMPAIGN TACTIC" TO SCARE VOTERS AWAY FROM VOTING FOR WU. 
THE LAW, CHOU SAYS, FORCES A CONVICTED INCUMBENT TO STEP 
DOWN.  A CONVICTED CANDIDATE, ON THE OTHER HAND, CAN BE 
ELECTED AND STILL SIT IN OFFICE DURING HIS APPEAL.  IF 
CONVICTED ON APPEAL WITHIN THE FIRST TWO YEARS AS MAGISTRATE, 
WU WOULD BE SUSPENDED FROM HIS OFFICE AND A BY-ELECTION WOULD 
BE HELD.  HOWEVER, WU COULD THEN RUN IN THE BY-ELECTION 
BECAUSE HE STILL HAS ONE APPEAL REMAINING. IF HE WOULD WIN 
THE BY-ELECTION, CLAIMS CHOU, THEN HE CANNOT BE REMOVED FROM 
THE SAME POST FOR THE SAME CRIMINAL CONVICTION.  IF, HOWEVER, 
WU WAS CONVICTED ON APPEAL IN THE LAST TWO YEARS OF HIS 
TENURE AS A MAGISTRATE, HE WOULD BE SUSPENDED FROM POST AND 
THE INTERIOR MINISTRY WOULD ASSIGN AN ACTING OFFICIAL. 
LUCKILY, CHOU NOTED, IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN WU STILL WOULD 
HAVE ONE MORE APPEAL TO THE HIGHEST COURT BEFORE HE ACTUALLY 
HAS TO SERVE ANY TIME.  AS SUCH, THE KMT EXPECTS THAT WU WILL 
BE ABLE TO HOLD THE MAGISTERIAL POST FOR A FULL FOUR YEARS. 
 
8. (C)  LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS, WHO ACTUALLY SEIZED 
EVIDENCE IN THE CASE AGAINST CANDIDATE WU, TOLD AIT/K THAT 
THE PROSECUTORS WERE A LITTLE MORE STRICT IN THEIR 
INTERPRETATION OF THE EVIDENCE THAN WERE THE POLICE.  IN 
FACT, FOREIGN AFFAIRS POLICE SECTION CHIEF CHEN FU-SHEN 
AGREES WITH CANDIDATE WU'S WIFE THAT THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE 
WU WILL BE CONVICTED AND SENTENCED DURING THE APPEAL BECAUSE 
"THERE IS JUST NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE AGAINST HIM." 
 
9. (C)  A VISIT TO THE DPP OFFICE RESULTED IN A FLAT OUT 
DENIAL THAT INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE LIU WILL RECEIVE ANY 
SUPPORT FROM THE PARTY.  TAITUNG COUNTY'S DPP CHAIRMAN CHANG 
CHIA-CHANG STATED THAT LIU DIDN'T GO THROUGH THE PRIMARY, IS 
NOT THEIR OFFICIAL CANDIDATE, NO ONE FROM THE CENTRAL OFFICE 
HAS NOTIFIED THEM TO SUPPORT HIM, AND THERE WILL BE NO LOCAL 
DPP OFFICIAL CAMPAIGN SUPPORT FOR HIM.  (NOTE:  ALTHOUGH A 
DPP MEMBER, LIU COULD NOT BE NOMINATED TO THE RACE AS AN 
OFFICIAL DPP CANDIDATE BECAUSE HSU'S REFUSAL TO RENOUNCE 
AUTHORITATIVELY HIS RE-ELECTION PLANS KEPT LIU OUT OF THE DPP 
PRIMARY PROCESS).  BEYOND THAT, CHAIRMAN CHANG HAD NOTHING 
LEFT TO SAY ABOUT THE MAGISTERIAL RACE.  INSTEAD, HE 
PROCEEDED TO RAIL AGAINST THE KMT FOR ITS ONGOING PUSH IN THE 
LY TO DEFEAT THE ARMS PROCUREMENT BILL. 
 
10. (C) TAITUNG POLITICAL OBSERVERS SAY NO ONE CANDIDATE HAS 
CONTROL OF THE "PARTY SUPPORTERS" FROM ANY CAMP.  MAGISTRATE 
HSU'S BASE OF SUPPORT IN TAITUNG HAS ALWAYS BEEN BLUE.  HIS 
SWITCH FROM BLUE TO GREEN AND HIS SUPPORT OF GREEN 
CANDIDATES, SAYS KMT CHAIRMAN CHOU, HAS ONLY SERVED TO 
CONFUSE LOCAL PEOPLE, THUS THE BLUE SUPPORT FOR HSU COULD 
HAVE TRANSLATED INTO A RE-ELECTION, BUT WILL NEVER TRANSFER 
FULLY TO INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE LIU. 
 
11. (C) BESIDES HIS PARTY AFFILIATION, LIU HAS SKELETONS IN 
HIS CLOSET THAT ALIENATE VOTERS OF BOTH COLORS FROM HIM.  IN 
ADDITION TO A MOTHER CURRENTLY PUBLICLY EMBROILED IN A 
FINANCIAL DISPUTE BECAUSE OF HER GAMBLING IN AN ILLEGAL 
LOTTERY, LIU ALSO HAS A BROTHER WITH A WELL-KNOWN HISTORY OF 
FINANCIAL PROBLEMS. 
 
12. (C) FORMER TAITUNG POLITICIAN AND LONG-TIME AIT/K CONTACT 
CHEN YI-SHAN FURTHER NOTED THAT CANDIDATE LIU'S WIFE HAS AN 
ALOOF AND SUPERIOR ATTITUDE.  MAGISTRATE HSU HAS BROUGHT HIS 
OWN WIFE, KNOWN AS A "NATURAL" AT CAMPAIGNING GIVEN HER 
ABILITY TO DRINK AND GOSSIP, BACK FROM CANADA TO CAMPAIGN FOR 
LIU.  ACCORDING TO CHEN, CANDIDATE WU IS IN A SIMILAR BOAT 
BECAUSE HIS SUPPORT IS BOTH GREEN AND BLUE ALSO.  THE 
DIFFERENCE FOR WU, SAYS CHEN, IS THAT HE'S AN AGREEABLE 
FELLOW AND EVERYONE LIKES HIM. 
 
13. (C)  TAITUNG POLICE SAY THEY ARE AMUSED THAT LOCAL 
BOOKIES ARE SCRAMBLING TRYING TO FIX ODDS ON THE ELECTION. 
IN FACT, POLICE SAY, THE BIGGEST BUSINESS ENTERPRISE IN 
NOVEMBER IN TAITUNG COUNTY WILL BE BETTING ON THIS 
MAGISTERIAL RACE.  FOREIGN AFFAIRS POLICEMAN "ROY" LO QUIPPED 
THAT WITH BOTH CANDIDATES HOLDING SUPPORTERS FROM BOTH BLUE 
AND GREEN SIDES OF THE FENCE, IT IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO 
PREDICT THE OUTCOME OF THIS RACE, WHICH, OF COURSE, IS WHAT 
MAKES IT ALL SUCH AN INTERESTING THING ON WHICH TO WAGER. 
LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS ASSURED AIT/K THEY WOULD KEEP US 
APPRISED ON HOW THE BETTING IS GOING. 
 
14. (C)  COMMENT:  THIS IS NOT AN ELECTION -- IT'S A HORSE 
RACE.  NOT ONE PERSON VISITED BY AIT/K FAILED TO MENTION 
GAMBLING AND ITS CONNECTION TO THIS MAGISTERIAL ELECTION. 
WHETHER IT WAS A CANDIDATE'S PENCHANT FOR GAMBLING, FAMILY 
GAMBLING DEBTS, CONVICTIONS FOR GAMBLING, BOOKIES FIXING ODDS 
OR VOTERS MAKING BOOK, TAITUNG CAN'T SEEM TO SEPARATE ITSELF 
FROM THE REAL THRILL, FOR THEM, OF THIS RACE.  THE MORE 
EXCITING THE RACE (AND THIS ONE IS EXCITING) THE MORE RISKY 
THE BETS AND THE HIGHER THE STAKES.  CLEARLY, KMT CHAIRMAN MA 
YING-JEOU ISN'T DROPPING IN TO CAMPAIGN FOR A KMT MEMBER 
CONVICTED OF CORRUPTION.  THE DPP DENIES THEY EVEN HAVE A 
CANDIDATE TO SUPPORT IN TAITUNG, SO THERE'S NO PARTY ACTIVITY 
GOING ON THERE.  WHAT WE WILL SEE IN TAITUNG IS LOCAL 
POLITICS WITH LOCAL ISSUES, LOCAL PERSONALITIES, AND LOCAL 
SKELETONS.  AIT/K WAS UNABLE TO FIND ANY HORSE CARRYING A 
NATIONAL ISSUE OR CONCERN ON WHICH TO PLACE A BET ON DOWN IN 
TAITUNG.  END COMMENT 
Keegan