US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4470

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004470 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION SCENE SETTER: KEELUNG CITY, A 
PAN-BLUE BATTLEGROUND 
 
 
Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan, Reason(s): 
1.4 (B/D) 
 
1.  (U) Summary:  The race for Keelung City Mayor is largely 
an internecine Pan-Blue fight between Kuomintang (KMT) 
incumbent Mayor Hsu Tsai-li and People First Party (PFP) 
legislator Liu Wen-hsiung.  While Democratic Progressive 
Party (DPP) candidate Wang Tuo withdrew from the race and 
endorsed Pan-Green coalition partner Taiwan Solidarity 
Union's (TSU) Chen Chien-ming, Chen continues to lag far 
behind in the polls.  Whereas the campaign visits of 
charismatic KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou are having a palpable 
impact on the Keelung mayoral campaign, a visit by the 
scandal-embroiled President Chen appears unlikely to help, 
and could even hurt, the Pan-Green candidate, whose campaign 
is in disarray.  End Summary. 
 
PFP:  Guarded Optimism 
---------------------- 
 
2.  (C) The dynamic and relatively young (late forties) PFP 
legislator Liu Wen-hsiung is holding his own in public 
opinion polls against incumbent KMT Mayor Hsu Tsai-li.  PFP 
Keelung Chairman Yu Cheng-Chen insisted to AIT that Liu's 
chances of winning are better than 60 percent.  PFP campaign 
strategy, he said, is to target the large body of undecided 
voters, ranging from 25 to 48 percent, according to various 
polls.  Acknowledging that Pan-Blue competitors PFP and KMT 
are soliciting from the same voter base, Yu explained that 
PFP is concentrating on attracting young and middle-aged 
voters, since voters over sixty will likely vote KMT.  PFP is 
also highlighting Mayor Hsu's health problems (diabetes) and 
contrasting this to the relative youth and vitality of Liu 
Wen-hsiung.  Arguing that voters are moving away from strict 
party affiliation and looking more at a candidate's image, Yu 
said Liu will continue to highlight his personal 
characteristics. 
 
3.  (C) A few days earlier, PFP Culture Deputy Director Liao 
Wan-cheng in Taipei had told AIT that the popular, 
charismatic KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou would be the key to the 
Keelung mayoral election.  PFP strategy, Liao explained, 
would be to persuade Ma, for the sake of Pan-Blue unity, to 
stay away from Keelung and refrain from campaigning for Hsu. 
Yu, however, told AIT that Ma has visited Keelung several 
times already and has hurt the PFP.  Later in the meeting, 
however, Yu sought to play down Ma's influence on the Keelung 
race, and noted that PFP Party Chairman James Soong will 
visit Keelung this week to inaugurate Liu's campaign 
headquarters and stump for Liu.  (Comment: Given Soong's 
highly controversial image, it will be interesting to see if 
such a visit will help or hurt Liu. End Comment.) 
 
KMT:  Incumbent Confidence 
-------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) KMT incumbent Keelung Mayor Hsu Tsai-li, a 
working-class Taiwanese politician, has held his own against 
PFP's Liu.  Local KMT Chairman Li Po-yuan showed AIT six 
public opinion polls with Hsu in the lead.  (Comment: AIT has 
found altogether nine public opinion polls on the Keelung 
mayoral race, which show the lead see-sawing back and forth 
between the two Pan-Blue candidates.  End Comment.)  Li also 
noted Chairman Ma's three visits to Keelung, crediting Ma's 
appearances with improving Hsu's position.  He predicted that 
even voters lukewarm about Hsu will vote for him because of 
Ma, and he stressed the importance of KMT victory in Keelung 
to help Ma win the presidency in 2008.  Not suprisingly given 
that strategy, Hsu Tsai-Li's campaign billboards show a 
larger Ma standing with his arm around Hsu's shoulder. 
 
5.  (C) With Liu and Hsu having nearly identical campaign 
platforms promising to improve Keelung's environment, Li 
Po-yuan told AIT, KMT strategy is to emphasize Hsu's 
"achievements" as Mayor, such as bringing Taiwan's "Golden 
Horse" movie awards ceremony to Keelung for the first time 
this year and his administration's generous welfare policies 
for retirees and others, in addition to bringing in Chairman 
Ma to campaign for him.  Our DPP and TSU interlocutors argue 
that, to the contrary, Hsu has accomplished nothing 
significant (such as cleaning up water pollution) during his 
tenure and that his generous welfare policies are close to 
vote buying.  Li predicts the vote in Keelung will be very 
close, and could be decided by 10,000-20,000 votes. 
 
Pan-Green Trailing 
------------------ 
 
6.  (C) With the withdrawal of DPP candidate Wang Tuo, TSU 
former Secretary General Chen Chien-ming is left as the sole 
Pan-Green candidate for mayor.  Pan-Green solidarity in 
Keelung is only a mirage, Wang Tuo told AIT.  Because the TSU 
rejected a request by the DPP to withdraw candidates from the 
city council election, the DPP refuses to help Chen's 
campaign.  Local TSU Chairman Wang Wen-yuan candidly 
acknowledged to AIT that Chen, an outsider to Keelung, has 
"no chance" of winning the election.  The TSU, he explained, 
has little support in Keelung, and is fragmented and 
disorganized.  Wang Tuo's withdrawal, moreover, has not 
benefited the TSU candidate much.  Wang Wen-yuan expressed 
the hope that the upcoming visits of former President and TSU 
"Spiritual Leader" Lee Teng-hui will attract older voters and 
of President Chen Shui-bian will attract young and female 
voters.  On the other hand, DPP legislator Wang Tuo, who 
withdrew from the mayoral race, suggested to AIT that 
President Chen's and former President Lee's campaign stops in 
Keelung will not benefit, and could even hurt, the Pan-Green 
candidate because voters have been put off by the recent DPP 
scandals.  Noting that the DPP leadership had 
"misinterpreted" the "New DPP Movement," Wang also predicted 
DPP's island-wide election results will be poor. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
7.  (C) Other than Lienchiang County (Matsu Island) Keelung 
is PFP's only reasonable chance for winning on December 3. 
Keelung, however, is one race in which the much-discussed "Ma 
Ying-jeou effect" appears to be at work, and this is an 
ingredient that PFP Chairman James Soong cannot hope to 
match.  The Keelung race is one of the declining PFP's last 
hopes for remaining a viable island-wide party. 
Keegan