US embassy cable - 05ADDISABABA3761

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003761 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR A/S FRAZER FROM VICKI HUDDLESTON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, ET, UNREST, ELEC 
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: PRIME MINISTER GIVES HIS VIEW ON 
INTERNAL STRIFE 
 
Classified By: Charge Vicki Huddleston for reason 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1. (C)  I met with Prime Minister Meles on November 2 shortly 
after an Ambassador Donor Group meeting with the Forign 
Minister.  During this meeting I was able to raise the issues 
of concern to us: human rights, realease of CUD/P leaders, 
restrain in the face of protests, and the need to move 
forward with creating more political space through dialogue. 
PM Meles said that we should be under no illusions the 25 
CUD/P leaders that had organized the "insurrection" would be 
tried in a court of law, have access to families and 
medicines but under no circumstances be released.  The PM 
said there would be a dialogue with the opposition in 
Parliament and those CUD/P leaders who were not arrested -- 
there are sixty on the council -- and who disavowed violence. 
 He said that now the government - with the "extremist" in 
jail -- was not longer in jail and could create political 
space and open a dialogue on the NEB, Parliament, Media and 
Rule of Law. He claimed that the violence was carried out by 
the unemployed youth not the population of Addis but the 
overreaction of the security forces has created a feeling of 
unfairness and frustration  The PM has -- perhaps unknowingly 
-- unleashed with the run up to the elections great 
expectations that democracy should be part of the Ethiopian 
culture.  How well he manages these expectations may well 
determine if Ethiopia develops into a stable democracy. end 
summary. 
 
 
 
2. (C) I opened this part of the conversation -- the first 
part was on the Eritrea/Ethiopia reported septel --  by 
telling the Prime Minister that in the Ambassadors' Donor 
Group meeting with the Foreign Minister the two theme 
reiterated by all ambassadors was that the detained CUD 
leaders should be released and that the GOE security forces 
should use maximum restraint in quelling the riots. The PM 
said he has spoken with the Foreign Minister and was 
surprised at what he heard because he had told British 
Ambassador Dewar, me, and the Opposition leaders that he was 
willing to seek a political solution via dialogue but that 
was only as long as they followed a peaceful path and avoided 
insurrection.  He had agreed to wait until life and property 
were in danger.  This had now occurred and there was no 
possibility of release for the CUD/P leaders as they had 
commited crimes that must be judged in courts of law. "Let me 
be very clear about this, you should have no illusions" -- 
they will not be release prior to standing trial. 
 
3. (C) I pointed out that the PM had put into motion events 
that were changing Ethiopia.  By approving open elections and 
campaigning there was a new atmosphere and much greater 
expectations.  Now it would be difficult to control 
expectation unless he provided real political openings.  The 
PM first responded that there would be no dialogue with those 
jailed, that was over.  However, he did realize that he 
needed to reach out to those who did not vote for the ruling 
EPRDF party.  Nevertheless, Addis does not represent Ethiopia 
and in his view the public were not supporting these 
disturbances as they did last June.  Today it is Addis' 
300,000 unemployed youth that are creating the disturbances. 
The CUD has mobilized this.  CUD/P leader and mayor elect 
Berhanu Nega had written the "paper for insurrection."  (I 
assume the PM was referring to the CUD/P plan for street 
actions that was distributed over the weekend calling for 
everything from honking horns to boycott of EPRDF business to 
a stay at home strike.)  The Government was faced with a 
unacceptable situation the PM said.  Even members and leaders 
of the CUD/P who disagreed with its leaders -- like Lidetu, 
who now fears for his life becasue he refused to join the 
CUD/P in its actions -- have been cowed by Hailu Shawel and 
the CUD leaders. 
 
4. (C)  I urged the Prime Minister that if these leaders were 
not release to ensure that they had access to medicines and 
to their families and that they would be speedily tried in an 
impartial court of law.  He responded that this would be 
done. All the leaders had been escorted to their homes to 
pick up medicines and personnel belongings and familles would 
be allowed to visit. The GOE would closely follow the letter 
of the law in its treatment of those detained and throughout 
the judicial process. But, the PM said, we must understand 
that Ethiopian democracy can not be determined by the 
international community-- whether we wish these leaders to be 
freed or not.  Ethiopia must make these determinations and 
some embassies -- not the USG -- had perhaps unwittingly led 
some of the opposition leaders to believe that they could 
keep them out of jail or obtain their freedom if they were 
jailed.  I told the PM I never doubted his word. I understood 
he would arrest them and ban the party if they engaged in 
what he termed "street violence" and I had made this very 
clear to the CUD/P leaders. 
 
5.  (C)  The PM said that we had a package that the GOE and 
the Opposition had agreed upon and that this package would 
continue to be the basis for dialogue with the opposition in 
Parliament and those in the CUD who were not jailed and 
disavowed violence.  The PM said that 25 of the 60 CUD/P 
Council members were arrested for insurrection.  The remained 
he considered to have publicly or privately disavowed CUD/P's 
plan for civil disobedience. He had himself reviewed the list 
of those to be detained and was satisfied that there was 
ample evidence against them. The package of issue on which 
the dialogue will take place will be principally the NEB, the 
Parliament, the Media, and Rule of Law.  The Troika met with 
the PM today who told them he was reviewing procedures for 
carrying out this dialogue. I raised the need to appoint a 
neutral NEB. The PM today in conversations with the Troika 
went further on reviewing Parliamentary rules that 
disadvantage the Opposition. 
 
6. (C)  In response to my complaint that the government had 
failed to go far enough in the dialogue the PM sated that the 
government had been in "limbo but now we know where we stand. 
 Now we can move and we have committed ourselves to lining up 
to normal democratic practices and expect the same from the 
opposition."  I ended with the hope that these political 
openings would be accompanied by economic opens as well, but 
that was a conversation for another day. 
 
7.  (C) Comment:  The Opposition leaders will not be released 
because their call for street actions and the resulting 
violence in which at least yesterday the security forces 
overreacted and in one case shot into a group of school 
children is seen as a direct challenge to overthrow the 
government via a type of "Rose Revolution."  Those leaders 
not detained still have the option of going into Parliament 
and City government or remaining outside of both.  The 
Government seems more willing to actually move forward on 
creating more political space.  However,  whether they will 
do it fast enough to prevent the outbreak of more frustration 
and anger remains a question.  The manner in which security 
forces treat the population is often bad and results in the 
population feeling it is abused and treated unfairly. There 
seems to be a new feeling that came out of the elections, 
namely that Ethiopian should have a democracy.  The PM seems 
to believe that, too. (Perhaps not in the way we would wish 
because he is determined to control it.) But whether he can 
move fast and far enough to satisfy his people will be his 
challenge. 
HUDDLESTON