US embassy cable - 05PARIS7454

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 007454 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
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EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA 
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E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - Syria Iraq - Bush Presidency 
Germany - Political Crisis 
PARIS - Wednesday, November 02, 2005 
 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
Syria 
Iraq - Bush Presidency 
Germany - Political Crisis 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
Suburban violence and the government's internal tension 
between PM Villepin and Interior Minister Sarkozy about the 
means to deal with delinquents is today's major front-page 
story. But Germany's political stalemate is the lead story for 
Le Figaro: "Germany Sinks Deeper Into a Political Crisis." The 
editorial emphasizes the risks for Germany's economy, but also 
beyond for Europe. (See Part C) 
 
The suicide attack committed by a ten year old in Iraq serves 
as background in France Soir for an article devoted to the 
children of the world "who are the first `collateral' victims 
of conflicts" from Burma to Congo to Iraq. "If these types of 
attacks were to become the standard in Iraq, they would signal 
a new radicalization in the rebellion's strategy." Le Figaro 
in its report contends that "Iraq is dependent on the GIs for 
its democratization." (See Part C) 
 
The stance adopted at the UNSC on Syria elicits two 
commentaries which emphasize France's lead on this issue and 
Franco-American cooperation. (See Part C) 
 
Concerns about an avian flu epidemic, how to prepare for it 
and President Bush's NIH speech on America's preparedness to 
deal with the threat are a major story. While Le Figaro 
carries an op-ed by former Socialist Minister Bernard Kouchner 
calling on the need for a "global approach rather than a 
national one, and the need to create a special worldwide fund 
to be managed through the WHO," Liberation titles its report: 
"President Bush's Lessons in Prevention at a Cost of 7 
Billion." Liberation also interviews Jean-Marie Le Guen, a 
medical doctor and National Assembly Representative: "The U.S. 
is well-prepared in that it has a high level of scientific 
know-how. What is striking is the good dissemination of 
information at all levels. On the down side there is the 
administration's tardiness in preparing for such an epidemic 
and the lack of a national health system. If a pandemic breaks 
out, vaccination will not be the answer. The answer will 
depend on the preparedness of society to deal with it." 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
Syria 
 
"Tact With Syria" 
Jean-Christophe Ploquin in Catholic La Croix (11/02): "Who 
wants Syria to break down? Apparently no one. At the UNSC it 
was obvious that everyone was taking care not to go too far 
too quickly. Under the impetus of China, Russia and Algeria, 
the explicit threat of sanctions was avoided. Al-Assad is 
still considered Syria's legitimate leader and Syria has not 
been branded a pariah. The UNSC is looking to marry two goals 
which could in the end turn out to be contradictory. First, to 
destroy Syria's capabilities to do harm, in Lebanon but also 
in Iraq. Second, to keep Syria from falling into chaos: no one 
wants a second Iraq. This strategy is essentially the work of 
France, whose interest in Lebanon is primordial, and who seems 
to have elicited the understanding of Secretary Rice. For the 
past year, Paris has with a certain degree of success taken 
the leadership in the West's policy on Lebanon, with a 
forceful resolution which has also managed to avoid 
extremism." 
 
"Asking Syria To Turn Itself In" 
Gerard Dupuy in left-of-center Liberation (11/01): "The 
summons was unanimous but polite. The Bush-Blair-Chirac trio 
accepted to trim down the UN draft resolution so that it could 
be adopted. Threats against Syria have gone from explicit to 
implicit. And Assad has earned himself a reprieve. But if a 
stalemate develops, the case of Syria will go back to the 
UNSC. The Franco-American mano en la mano is developing as an 
antithesis of past tensions over Iraq. If this cooperation 
continues, it will open up vistas which seemed previously 
obstructed." 
 
Iraq - Bush Presidency 
 
"Iraq Dependent on GIs for Democratization" 
Adrien Jaulmes in right-of-center Le Figaro (11/02): 
"Guerrilla attacks continue to spill bloodshed in Iraq. 
Meanwhile the democratic process continues: these are two 
strategies which are in direct conflict one with the other. On 
the one hand the Americans and the local government want to 
stick to the political process calendar no matter what. On the 
other, insurgents are determined to create chaos. In order to 
save the political process, the Americans continue to pressure 
the guerrilla fighters but without success. While some 
isolated victories have been registered, the American strategy 
has not managed to durably disarm the guerrilla factions. The 
American Army has somewhat managed to contain the guerrilla 
warfare. But we are not far from a vicious circle where the 
real successes of the democratic process remain tied to a 
foreign military presence." 
 
"A Stainless Steel Presidency?" 
Philippe Gelie in right-of-center Le Figaro (11/01): "Much 
conjecture is going on about the consequences of the Lewis 
Libby affair on President Bush. It is undeniable that this 
legal reversal is one more embarrassing incident in a long 
list which includes Katrina and the nomination of Harriet 
Miers. If facts alone served to qualify an administration, the 
Bush administration would indeed be in trouble. But President 
Bush seems only tangentially concerned. It is as if the 
President were impermeable to these facts. Presidencies which 
take their stock in ideology are impervious to reality, which 
counts for very little in their scheme of things. Is George 
Bush a stainless steel President? The Libby trial will put his 
presidency to the test." 
 
Germany - Political Crisis 
 
"Germany at a Standstill" 
Philippe Reclus in right-of-center Le Figaro (11/02): "Many 
ingredients are mixing in to undermine the plan for a 
coalition government. The negotiations underway may or may not 
succeed in creating a new government. But there is no 
guarantee that the government will be in a position to give 
the necessary impetus. The risk of paralysis is real. just 
when the Germans are calling for determination and something 
to boost their lost confidence. If the oil crisis slows down 
the world economy in general, Europe's economic engine could 
be affected. A Germany without a pilot and an economy at a 
standstill would be terrible news for all of Europe. The 
recent tension observed over the WTO and the CAP, the joint EU 
budget and the lack of a real industrial policy raises the 
specter of a European explosion. If the German crisis lasts 
the consequences may be too much to handle." 
 
"Europe Awaiting a New Impetus from the Franco-German Engine" 
Jacques Hubert-Rodier in right-of-center Les Echos (11/02): 
"The limitations of the Franco-German engine have become 
apparent in Europe's failure to construct a political Europe. 
The continuity of the Franco-German couple, if it is indeed 
confirmed, may not be enough to give a new impetus to Europe's 
construction. And no one really believes in a Franco-British 
engine, even if Paris and London were instrumental in building 
Europe's defense initiative." STAPLETON