US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN1938

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001938 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SNEC, EUR/CACEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, OTRA, AM 
SUBJECT: CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS:  EUR A/S FRIED'S 
MEETING WITH ARMENIAN OPINION MAKERS 
 
REF: A) YEREVAN 1790 B) YEREVAN 1764 C) YEREVAN 1749 
 
     D) YEREVAN 1692 
 
Classified By: Ambassador John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
1. (C) Summary:  During an October 18 lunch meeting with 
Armenian government officials, opposition parliamentarians, 
and academics, A/S Fried heard competing arguments about the 
package of constitutional amendments (reftels) slated for 
referendum on November 27.  Supporters maintained the 
amendments, while not perfect, constituted a positive step -- 
supported by the Armenian public -- toward democratic rule. 
Detractors asserted that, in the unlikely event a 
disenfranchised electorate overcomes the high voter threshold 
to pass the amendments, the current government will exploit 
loopholes to retain its "authoritarian" rule.  Ambassador 
Evans moderated as participants maintained their scripted 
positions (reftels) and displayed a hard-headed unwillingness 
to compromise or approach the process of democratic reform 
responsibly. 
 
Participants included: 
 
EUR Assistant Secretary Daniel Fried 
Ambassador John Evans 
Ambassador Steven Mann 
DCM Anthony Godfrey 
EUR/SNEC Deputy Director Elizabeth Rood 
Yerevan Pol/Econ notetaker 
 
Minister of Justice David Harutyunian 
National Assembly Deputy Chairman Tigran Torosian 
Opposition MP Stepan Zakarian 
Opposition MP Artashes Geghamian 
Opposition MP Shavarsh Kocharian 
Opposition MP Vazgen Manukian 
Deputy Foreign Minister Arman Kirakossian 
Academy of Public Administration Rector Armen Harutyunyan 
Democracy NGO Chair Vardan Poghosian  End Summary. 
 
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AMENDMENTS "NECESSARY BUT NOT SUFFICIENT" FOR DEMOCRACY 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
2. (C) During an October 18 lunch meeting with Armenian 
government officials, opposition parliamentarians, and 
academics, Minister of Justice David Harutyunian told A/S 
Fried that his government's package of constitutional 
amendments, while not perfect, represents a positive step 
toward -- and a necessary GOAM commitment to -- Armenian 
democracy.  Constitutional amendments co-author and National 
Assembly Deputy Chairman Tigran Torosian told Fried he 
believed the amendments would play a "significant role" in 
establishing "irreversible mechanisms for democracy." 
 
3. (C) Both Harutyunian and Torosian quoted Ambassador Evans 
-- "constitutional reform is necessary but not sufficient for 
democracy" -- and claimed the GOAM has the political will to 
actually implement the reforms.  Fried emphasized USG support 
for free and fair elections in the November 27 referendum as 
well as the 2007 parliamentary and presidential elections. 
Harutyunian said the Armenian government "has no intention of 
interfering" with votes, particularly given past and present 
scrutiny of elections.  The November 27 referendum, Torosian 
said, will be "free and fair." 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
OPPOSITION:  "NO POLITICAL WILL TO IMPLEMENT REFORMS" 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
4. (C) Advocating more immediate steps toward democratic 
reform, opposition National Democratic Union MP Vazgen 
Manukian told A/S Fried "democracy is not a poison to take in 
small doses so it won't affect you."  The GOAM, Manukian 
asserted, is "only pretending" to have interest in democratic 
reform to placate "European institutions" pushing for the 
measures.  Public interest in constitutional reform doesn't 
exist, Manukian asserted, and adopting a new constitution 
will only delay meaningful change.  Opposition Peoples' Party 
MP Stephan Zakarian added that flawed elections, restrictions 
on press freedoms, and a "lack of political will to implement 
reforms" are among the factors that contribute to an 
atmosphere of distrust in an already apathetic electorate. 
"People just don't believe that a dictator can suddenly 
become a democrat," Zakarian said. 
 
5. (C) Opposition National Unity leader MP Artashes Geghamyan 
told Fried he would only support the constitutional 
amendments -- which Geghamyan admitted were positive -- "if 
the government commits in advance to early national 
elections."  To understand where this country is going, 
Geghamyan told Fried, "you have to look at where we've been." 
 Since independence, the government has been unable "to 
stabilize this country."  Geghamyan thanked A/S Fried for the 
USG's "continued support for democratic reform in Armenia," 
but asserted that Armenian voters had witnessed little 
progress and will invest even less trust in "a government 
that violates the principles of democracy."  (Note: 
Geghamyan asked A/S Fried to encourage President Kocharian to 
accept the National Unity Party's call for early elections 
following the referendum.  A/S Fried declined but noted he 
would emphasize the USG's interest in free and fair elections 
at a meeting with Kocharian later in the day.  End Note.) 
 
6. (C) Citing a high voter threshold and low public interest, 
opposition National Assembly Justice Party MP Shavarsh 
Kocharyan repeated his frequent predictions that the 
amendments would fail in referendum.  Kocharyan told A/S 
Fried that Armenians have few guarantees that the amendments 
would bar the president from seeking a third term in office. 
"If the government really intended to take steps toward 
democracy, it would take steps to build public trust," 
according to Kocharyan, who also told Fried that the 
government has done little to turn around its legacy of 
fraudulent elections.  (Note:  Publicly, Shavarsh Kocharyan 
is an outspoken critic of the regime and the referendum, 
although he is a co-author of the amendments.) 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
FRIED:  TIME TO ESTABLISH THE RULES OF THE GAME 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
7. (C) Reinforcing Ambassador Evans' public statements 
throughout the constitutional amendments debate (reftels), 
A/S Fried emphasized USG support for free and fair elections 
and urged participants to make a good-faith effort to first 
establish the rules, then debate the direction of the 
democracy.  Ambassador Evans reminded participants that the 
USG will both announce a package of assistance designed to 
promote free and fair elections in 2007 and 2008, and monitor 
Armenia's progress on democratic reform as a criterion for 
Millennium Challenge Grant eligibility. 
 
------------------------------------- 
COMMENT:  THE LONG ROAD TO REFERENDUM 
------------------------------------- 
 
8. (C) Throughout the lunch meeting, government and 
opposition participants repeated their well-known positions 
on the constitutional amendments and the November 27 
referendum (reftels).  Participants sparred over accusations 
that opposing sides were responsible for a meltdown in 
dialogue, opposition members in particular complaining that 
the ruling coalition excluded them from the pre-referendum 
constitutional debate.  While a helpful window on the 
political wrangling leading up to the referendum, the lunch 
illustrated how members of the Armenian political elite -- 
both the governing coalition and the opposition -- are still 
unwilling to compromise and seemingly unable to approach the 
debate with open minds. 
 
9. (U) EUR/FO has cleared this message. 
EVANS